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- Oct 13, 2010
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In these 2016 market threads, I've seen comments that involve laments about how a cascade can start because of a tiny disturbance. This post centers around a thought experiment concerning a possible option to tame market volatility. It relies on the premise that the volatility is caused in part by professional traders' actions and that those destabilizing actions would be less frequent if the reliability of the market was reduced.
If the market was suddenly and unexpectedly shut-down*, how would that affect professional traders? If a 'normal investor' buys one hour and sells the next (or later), I don't think it would matter. But isn't it true that there's a lot of transactions the professionals use that are only low risk because they're "guaranteed" that some set of transactions will succeed as expected within a few seconds with very high reliability? If the certainty of having the full set of transactions execute very close to the same time was decreased, wouldn't that involve more risk for the trader? It seems that they could get caught with only part of their strategy executed, which might be very costly, thus making those types of transactions ill advised.
After typing this, I realized there's probably academic papers on this topic, but I'm not going to look for them...yet.
* You'd have a completely isolated computer, inside a vault at Fort Knox, with a true random (not psudo random) source, like a video camera pointed at a lava-lamp (lol!). The simple open-source program would be configured to "fire", say, once per 50 trading days on average, so it would have minimal impact on the real business of the market. The only connection to the computer would be an optical link through a small hole in the vault (the program would turn on an LED when it fired). The external sensor would be connected to the existing "circuit breakers" that were implemented years ago.
If the market was suddenly and unexpectedly shut-down*, how would that affect professional traders? If a 'normal investor' buys one hour and sells the next (or later), I don't think it would matter. But isn't it true that there's a lot of transactions the professionals use that are only low risk because they're "guaranteed" that some set of transactions will succeed as expected within a few seconds with very high reliability? If the certainty of having the full set of transactions execute very close to the same time was decreased, wouldn't that involve more risk for the trader? It seems that they could get caught with only part of their strategy executed, which might be very costly, thus making those types of transactions ill advised.
After typing this, I realized there's probably academic papers on this topic, but I'm not going to look for them...yet.
* You'd have a completely isolated computer, inside a vault at Fort Knox, with a true random (not psudo random) source, like a video camera pointed at a lava-lamp (lol!). The simple open-source program would be configured to "fire", say, once per 50 trading days on average, so it would have minimal impact on the real business of the market. The only connection to the computer would be an optical link through a small hole in the vault (the program would turn on an LED when it fired). The external sensor would be connected to the existing "circuit breakers" that were implemented years ago.