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Would you buy CVX and sit on it for 20 years
Old 04-20-2020, 05:51 PM   #1
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Would you buy CVX and sit on it for 20 years

Hey folks,

Not trying to start a brawl here but I am a greedy investor. No appologies...

So here is a question: If you didn't care about $10K (willing to take the risk of turning into pennies) and put it in CVX and ride it out for 20 years, would you be proud of your decision in 2040? If it was a bust then no worries. I missed on buying BAC for $5 in 2009 and have repented it ever since.

Crude did go in negative territory today. I only see one way out of this for CVX and that's up.
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Old 04-20-2020, 06:14 PM   #2
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No. I suspect many market participants would not endorse your CVX speculation.
The Nasdaq/QQQ maybe, but not a high risk, single stock like CVX though.

Good luck to you though!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...evron-is-avoid.

Summary
Investors are positioning for an oil price rebound.

Sub optimal alternatives are being bid up.

This time may be different for oil majors like Chevron.
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:57 AM   #3
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As a longterm holding, no.
As a trade, I might. it is the best of the majors, in my view.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:53 AM   #4
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I bought it 3 weeks ago or so and recently sold it for a 20% gain. At one time I would have considered owning it for the long term but no longer.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:26 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by MN_1021 View Post
Hey folks,

Not trying to start a brawl here but I am a greedy investor. No appologies...

So here is a question: If you didn't care about $10K (willing to take the risk of turning into pennies) and put it in CVX and ride it out for 20 years, would you be proud of your decision in 2040? If it was a bust then no worries. I missed on buying BAC for $5 in 2009 and have repented it ever since.

Crude did go in negative territory today. I only see one way out of this for CVX and that's up.
Do the hard thing, hold on to the 10K for a year or two, then pick a scrap from the rubble pile. CVX needs to fall another 60% to be in the same place oil is that would put you around 2002 prices
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:37 AM   #6
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Sure, if you like to gamble in the stock market. Why not? Itís your money. On the other hand, the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) has returned .38% per year on average since its founding in 2004, so you have to be comfortable with the potential opportunity costs against a balanced and diversified portfolio returning to its historic 7% +- year after year over the next 20 years.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:45 AM   #7
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Of course it would be nothing different from gambling so, if you want to gamble, go ahead. When the autos went under, Ford went to $1 and people I worked with loaded up. They were well rewarded. Others I knew owned GM and watched it go to zero. It does happen. I think the likelihood is higher that CVX will go bankrupt than not and therefore would not place this bet. If you think this is a good bet, wait until the bottom falls out and see if you can pick it up for pocket change.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:45 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MN_1021 View Post
Hey folks,

Not trying to start a brawl here but I am a greedy investor. No appologies...

So here is a question: If you didn't care about $10K (willing to take the risk of turning into pennies) and put it in CVX and ride it out for 20 years, would you be proud of your decision in 2040? If it was a bust then no worries. I missed on buying BAC for $5 in 2009 and have repented it ever since.

Crude did go in negative territory today. I only see one way out of this for CVX and that's up.


I like to use portion of my portfolio for individual stocks. I think you can trade and have success with CVX, but not sure I could make a 20 yr commitment.

I think BAC is still good buy below $20.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:44 AM   #9
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No, I won't be here in 20 years.
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Old 04-22-2020, 09:59 PM   #10
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So if not CVX what about BP or RDS A or B? Oil will not be going away - at least I don't think it is. Plenty of everyday products need oil to be processed.
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Old 04-30-2020, 06:18 AM   #11
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Why not buy XLE and have all the big oil guys in one fund?
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Old 04-30-2020, 06:28 AM   #12
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I inherited a small amount of Texaco stock in about 1983. Texaco became Chevron at some point. It went up in the early 2000s and I sold half. It is volatile and not really that profitable an investment. I paid $0 for mine and wouldn't really recommend it for long term if you spend a lot of real money for it.
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:39 AM   #13
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Yes oil is not going away. It has been in the ground for hundreds of millions of years. However, those independent oil companies and drillers that continue to operate at a loss are going away. The major oil companies will survive but will be members of the "house of pain".
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:42 AM   #14
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Why not buy XLE and have all the big oil guys in one fund?
You are buying bankruptcy risk. Balance sheets are important.
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Old 05-04-2020, 10:04 AM   #15
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You are buying bankruptcy risk. Balance sheets are important.
So ALL the big oil guys are going to go bankrupt? Come on! There is still a need for oil. Temporary adjustment, yes of course, but we won't be home forever.
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Old 05-04-2020, 07:21 PM   #16
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Oil not going anywhere for the big players. Those leveraged small players playing in the shale have never recovered from the 15' nose dive. They were just getting the wind back in their sails before this Saudi/Russian/Covid mess came along.
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