Coronavirus - Travel impact

[6miths]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveNU "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019*flu*season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died" "So far, 8,200 people have died and 140,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu*season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC" This happens year after year and nobody puts their life on hold for it. If they renamed the flu and gave it an exotic new name it would put the country in a panic every year! Perhaps a little perspective is in order?

What he said! That's not to say that there isn't going to be another Spanish flu or something more stealthy like HIV but not much I can do about it. We talk about ignoring financial porn and much of today's news runs along the same lines so hopefully we are able to do the same.

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveNU "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019*flu*season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died" "So far, 8,200 people have died and 140,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu*season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC" This happens year after year and nobody puts their life on hold for it. If they renamed the flu and gave it an exotic new name it would put the country in a panic every year! Perhaps a little perspective is in order?

That's because that's a 0.14% mortality rate for the flu. It's too early to be certain (especially since the numbers out of China are not necessarily verifiable), but even now nCoV is estimated to have a fatality rate of at least 3%; other related coronaviruses have fatality rates of 10% (SARS) and 37% (MERS). And the reproductive number could be twice as high as the flu (1.46 for the 2009 influenza strain), researchers are estimating the RV for nCoV between 1.5 and 3.5, and the higher the number, the more easily communicable the pathogen is.

[Gumby]

MOD NOTICE TO ALL

There is one general coronavirus thread to deal with everything but travel plan changes. We hope that it will provide a single place for people to provide or find information and discuss issues such as the R-naught value and mortality rate. Let's keep this one limited to travel plans.

Thanks.

[Another Reader]

I'm evaluating my flights next week using empirical market evidence. I was out shopping for groceries and supplies today.

1. Masks seen: 0 N/P-95, 1 full face surgical mask, Asian male, late 50's.
2. Availability of hand sanitizer: Low at one Target, spotty at the other, forgot to check Safeway. Was able to get TSA approved sizes at the second Target, but stock was low. None at the first Target.
3. Bulk bottled water purchases: About 10 to 15 percent of baskets in the Costco checkout lines contained multiple six packs of Crystal Geyser gallon bottles. Not sure what normal is for those purchases.
4. Availability of N-95 masks. Lowes and Hope Depot both out of stock per Nextdoor posts. Available in small numbers elsewhere. Not as bad as October when the wildfires were raging.
4. Number of customers out shopping on a Tuesday morning: Low at both Targets and Costco, average at Safeway.

Conclusion: Possibly some impact, but not substantial yet. Recheck near the end of the week.

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveNU "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019*flu*season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died" "So far, 8,200 people have died and 140,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu*season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC" This happens year after year and nobody puts their life on hold for it. If they renamed the flu and gave it an exotic new name it would put the country in a panic every year! Perhaps a little perspective is in order?

Yes, I was wondering about those stats. I imagine the concern right now is that this flu is worse then the standard variety. So even if you don't die it will be exceedingly unpleasant and could mean a hospital stay.

Then I see articles that say the deaths are mainly in the older citizens, maybe 60 and above. Oh, that makes me feel better.

[Lsbcal]

Regarding the N95 face masks, I picked up a box of 10 at the local hardware store for $20 which was very well stocked. The ones I got are the 3M 8511 model which have good reviews on Amazon. We could even use them should we get more California fires next fire season.

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Anyway, back on topic, I'm making sure I have an N95 mask and plenty of hand sanitized, as I'm supposed to travel domestically (2 hr. flight) in about 3 weeks and attend a meeting. Whether I use the mask will depend on the facts at the time of travel, though. A bigger concern is whether this will be under control in July, when my family and I are supposed to travel to the UK. We'll have to wait and see about that, too, but all of us are fairly healthy and able to take the proper hygiene precautions.

[YVRRocketSurgery]

A few years back we ended up keeping our travel plans to South Korea which was in the midst of the MERS outbreak. We obviously monitored the situation. For us, we were comfortable with still going because new infections seemed under control with patients being family members in the same household and patients/visitors at hospitals treating cases before protocols were implemented.

During our trip we obviously saw many people wearing masks in the subway systems but other than that it seemed pretty normal. However, sites/attractions were way less busy than during a previous trip to Seoul which was a bonus.

We're still looking for some trip plans this year and I'd still consider going to places that have had Coronavisus cases identified but it obviously depends on how things play out (though Wuhan isn't at the top of my bucket list ). But I can appreciate why people would consider changing plans.

[erkevin]

A decade or so ago, when Swine Flu was that year's boogeyman, we went ahead and traveled to Mexico (the epicenter of the outbreak). We had a great time and were about the only Gringos in town! Everything was on sale as everyone competed for our business.

[irishgal]

I’m flying from St Louis to DFW Friday to judge the dachshund national earth dog trials and I’m not really worried. Might put a bag over my head. Just kidding.

[brett]

On our way to Mexico for seven or eight weeks tomorrow.

I guess mean I will be drinking Dos Equis instead of Corona.

[Another Reader]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal Regarding the N95 face masks, I picked up a box of 10 at the local hardware store for $20 which was very well stocked. The ones I got are the 3M 8511 model which have good reviews on Amazon. We could even use them should we get more California fires next fire season.

I have those as well, thanks to the 2018 fires up here, so I did not go looking for them. Just reporting the second hand information from the ever-reliable Nextdoor... Looks like they are out of stock at Amazon right now.

[YVRRocketSurgery]

Quote:

Originally Posted by irishgal I’m flying from St Louis to DFW Friday to judge the dachshund national earth dog trials and I’m not really worried. Might put a bag over my head. Just kidding.

Might be safer with a plastic bottle on your head so you don't have to inhale at face level. jk too.

[blueskyk]

Inexperienced traveler alert....last week I made arrangements for travel to Northern Ireland in June. I didn’t purchase travel insurance offered by the airline carrier at the time. Total outlay for the 10 day trip is about $6 - 7K, which includes a retreat (which provides housing, meals, local transportation, etc), airfare and a little spending money.

Now I’m wondering what sort of travel insurance might be available and whether rates will sky rocket with so much uncertainty and concern...

I don’t want to cancel.

[Aerides]

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueskyk Now I’m wondering what sort of travel insurance might be available and whether rates will sky rocket with so much uncertainty and concern...

Your credit card may be able to offer it (amex does pretty sure). The airline may offer post-purchase insurance as well, I'm sure you can shop around.

If the State Dept cautions against travel at that time, you may also have "coverage", even without insurance. I think, by June, either this is over, or it's way worse in which case the choice to cancel will be made for us!

[Pellice]

You are probably more likely to need travel insurance to Northern Ireland for reasons other than the coronavirus. What if a family member gets ill, or you yourself get ill, for any type of illness? Up to what point will the tour arranger allow you to drop the trip without penalty? The airline-purchased coverage would cover only the airline ticket, so if you are post-penalty date, you have to insure for the tour/retreat cost as well. "Regular" travel insurance protects against these situations, and also if you fall sick overseas.

If the coronavirus situation were dire enough that flights to northern Ireland were canceled, you would probably be reimbursed. If the retreat were canceled, likewise. But remember, the airline is responsible only for delivering you from airport to airport.

But, say, the virus is pretty widespread, but NOT serious in northern Ireland, so that everything is still on schedule, but YOU are nervous about flying in the confined space of the aircraft. The only travel insurance that would work in that situation is "cancel for any reason" travel insurance, which is the most expensive kind.

Yes, your credit card (if a high-cost one) MAY provide "regular" travel insurance, but I'd check it pretty carefully for evacuation costs, deductibles, etc. It almost certainly will not provide "cancel for any reason" travel insurance.

There are many companies offering travel insurance that will offer you a quote right on their website without registration - you just provide your state and age, so it's easy to check.

[blueskyk]

Thanks, this is helpful. My credit card has a max limit on travel insurance of $1500 (which is most of the airfare) so perhaps I’ll reduce the total amount I’m looking to insure by that amount after combing more thoroughly through the fine print.

Quotes I’ve received so far hovered around $400 for $6K of coverage (prior to the coronavirus buzz) and I’m at the stage where I’m trying to figure out what the words describing the coverage actually mean in real life.

Based on comments so far, I’m realizing the money spent is probably small compared to the comfort in having options IF those options are properly understood.

Thanks again!

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueskyk Thanks, this is helpful. My credit card has a max limit on travel insurance of $1500 (which is most of the airfare) so perhaps I’ll reduce the total amount I’m looking to insure by that amount after combing more thoroughly through the fine print. Quotes I’ve received so far hovered around $400 for $6K of coverage (prior to the coronavirus buzz) and I’m at the stage where I’m trying to figure out what the words describing the coverage actually mean in real life. Based on comments so far, I’m realizing the money spent is probably small compared to the comfort in having options IF those options are properly understood. Thanks again!

If your CC is a Citi CC, be aware they changed travel coverage on many CC's, basically eliminating them, as of September 29, 2019.

I got fooled by that, so phone your CC if you want to be sure.

[pacergal]

RE N95 masks--anyone who plans to use one, please make sure they are fitted correctly, otherwise they are no good. You can google cdc website for correct fitting procedure, along with negative and positive pressure checks.

As a medical professional, I frequently had to wear one. They are hot and uncomfortable, IMHO, and I would not travel if I felt I needed to wear one for protection.

[Teacher Terry]

We didn’t get travel insurance because the flights were cheap and I can cancel the hotels with no penalty. I am going to hold off on booking flights between countries in Europe until I see how this goes. I can’t breathe with a mask on.