An Italian version of Brexit?

[samclem]

My husband's cousins say that Renzi is the only one pushing this brexit comparison and it's ridiculous.

FWIW, I agree with the cousins. Renzi has already been PM a "long tine" by Italian standards (they average, what, about 24 months and he's been there about 3 years?). The proposed changes would probably help Italy from an economic standpoint, as their present power structure makes it very easy for regional politicians to prevent reforms. So, Renzi will probably go if the referendum fails (because he'll have trouble making reforms he believes are necessary without the changes), but then Italy will just go through the normal flailing around that accompanies their elections. My opinion is that the Renzi's continuation as PM would be better for Italy's log-term economic health than any likely successor would be, but that's a long way from pulling out of the EU.

 

[theOAP]

The following is only my take on "why the concern of ----exit" (insert country name) in Europe. It isn’t to be viewed as anything other than a general informative comment about “wha’s happening now” in the upcoming elections in Europe. Others may rightfully feel what follows is of very minor importance.

For anyone interested, Italy’s PM Renzi may be - reacting to (?)/taking advantage of (?) – THE hot button of the current European political landscape. This is a quick tour, and incomplete, only for the hardened Europhile (or those interested in world politics). All others may find it a bit of a long read.

Starting with Italy and the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S): (Elections in 2018)

“But today M5S is no longer on the sidelines of Italian politics. Instead, it is the second most popular party in the country and leading the campaign against Renzi’s referendum, which it says poses a threat to the country’s constitution. If Renzi loses, it could hasten the call for general elections before 2018, putting M5S within striking distance of the prime minister’s seat in Palazzo Chigi…..

Grillo has long been an admirer of the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage, and M5S has said it would seek to call a referendum on the euro if it came into power.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/06/italy-m5s-became-a-real-contender-five-star-politics


In Germany, it’s believed Angela Merkel will seek a fourth term as Chancellor. (Elections in 2017)

“Mrs Merkel's poll ratings have slipped since the height of her popularity but she retains wide support……..She suffered an embarrassing regional election defeat earlier this year and is being challenged by the populist right-wing AfD party.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38042937

She has a very good chance of winning, but the AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland) will be seeking to make inroads.

“The AfD's launch in early 2013 was all about challenging the eurozone bailouts and rejecting the EU's arguments for keeping the euro. It has since veered right .....but still promises to give German voters a referendum on the euro.......

A rather unpleasant group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37274201


Today is an important day in France as its round 1 of the les Republicains runoff. (Elections in 2017)

“The winner of the conservative primary seems assured to make the presidential run-off, where he or she is likely to face far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Polls suggest that the Republican candidate would win that election. With the governing socialists unpopular and divided, it seems unlikely that any left-wing candidate will survive the first round,”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38040847

So, why is Le Pen’s presence of consequence for Les Republicains?

“So far, so everyday - but behind the finger-jabbing, fake smiles and odd excruciating faux-pas lurks far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen.

With France's left in disarray, the winner of the vote may be the only obstacle to her sweeping to power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37989873

And why the concern for the EU if Le Pen wins?

“Now France is bracing itself for a momentous presidential vote in 2017 in which the stakes could not be higher—not just for the well-being of France, but for the future of Europe itself……..She has vowed to pull France out of the euro and to hold a “Frexit” referendum on the country’s membership of the European Union.”

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21710252-who-can-beat-marine-le-pen-europes-biggest-populist-danger

As mentioned in the article (and by other posters above), the EU can survive the exit of the UK; but if any one of these 3 countries were to leave (or at least, leave the Euro), if not game over for the EU, it would certainly require a rethink.

The current betting is none will be successful, and the EU will survive. The UK is watching closely, as the results of the above elections will play a key part in Brexit negotiations, no matter which way the results fall.

 

[Mdlerth]

The vote is a constitutional change - as you mentioned, about how elected officials are selected.

The issue is that Mario Renzi (current PM) is backing this to the point he's said he'll quit if it doesn't pass. The banks (according to my husbands cousins) also really want this to pass.

Polls are showing that "no" will win... And Renzi will quit. This forces an early election - and the populism that was behind Brexit and our recent elections in the US are thought to, maybe, sweep some anti-EU folks into office. Once in... they might pull out of the EU or the Euro.

This would cause more friction between Germany (who holds much of Italy's debt) and Italy... and major stress in the euro bond market.

At least that's how I read it.

My husband's cousins say that Renzi is the only one pushing this brexit comparison and it's ridiculous.

Thank you. You're the best. Clear and concise. You separated the data from the speculation, and you did it in about one fifth as many words that CNBC article used. Why can't journalists communicate as efficiently as engineers?

 

[Totoro]

Thank you. You're the best. Clear and concise. You separated the data from the speculation, and you did it in about one fifth as many words that CNBC article used. Why can't journalists communicate as efficiently as engineers?

Retired engineers have more time to think is my guess. Journalists are on the clock for clicks, words and articles. Not insightfulness sadly.


That, and the audience here is slightly geared towards being engineers themselves.

 

[explanade]

Maybe the looming Italian vote is why the Euro fell under $1.10 recently?

 

[Totoro]

One never knows, but don't think so.

I believe it's mostly rising interest rates in the US, recovering US economy, Brexit and a removal of the election uncertainty (also in the US). The Italian thing is hardly in the (international) news.

I'd put it on par with the French presidential elections, that are also heating up. For example: Sarkozy, former president and candidate, got kicked out in the first round. LePen, extremist right candidate, is still in. That sort of thing makes (minor) headlines. Business as usual with the underlying "the Eurozone is falling apart!" sentiment.

 

[NW-Bound]

My husband has dual citizenship with Italy. He received his ballot in the mail today for the constitutional referendum in Italy for December.

Matteo Renzi - current prime minister, is backing these changes "all in" - saying he'll resign if they don't pass.

The issue isn't the changes - the issue is the chaos that could ensue during the interim government if Renzi resigns... could lead to a decision to pull out of the Eurozone... At least that's the speculation. This obviously would have huge impacts on worldwide markets...

Italy voted "No". Renzi already announced his resignation. The euro is down to US$1.06.

 

[Senator]

For what it is worth, it appears Renzi is out. By a landslide.

Matteo Renzi's time as Italy's prime minister appeared to be over Sunday as exit polls indicated voters had overwhelmingly rejected constitutional reform proposals on which he had staked his future.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italys-r...nstitutional-reform-exit-polls-221129482.html

 

[Meadbh]

For what it is worth, it appears Renzi is out. By a landslide.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/italys-r...nstitutional-reform-exit-polls-221129482.html

It wasn't an election, just a referendum, but he promised to resign if he lost.

 

[NW-Bound]

The referendum on the constitution, if passed, would take power from the Senate, and proposed laws would only have to pass the lower House, in contrast to currently requiring the approval of both. Renzi said that it would allow him to govern more efficiently instead of being hampered by gridlocks.

I do not know much about the implications, but the No votes won by a big margin of 60/40, with the rural areas voted most strongly No.

Interestingly, the Italian votes from abroad were the reverse at 65% Yes and 35% No. Italian expats apparently think differently than the indigenous.

 

[tulak]

My Italian friends pointed out the size of the Italian Parliament as a reason to vote yes. There are a total of 945 seats with 315 senators and 630 deputies. That's a lot of politicians. Especially for a country of 60 million.

Personally, I wonder about the 5 senators that are elected for life. That sounds like a sweet gig.

 

[Midpack]

So they voted NO, Renzi offered to resign (hmmmm), how about that! Pollsters haven't been doing so well lately.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/05/europe/italy-referendum-whats-next/index.html

 

[Bamaman]

The Italians have this huge legislative branch--so large they cannot seem to get anything done. The PM was trying to streamline the government so they could be more productive. The Italian citizenry looked at the vote as his way to get more power over the country.

I've been traveling to Italy since 1970, and such political upheaval is unfortunately the norm over there. But as someone that gets his defined pension from one of the largest Italian companies, I don't like what's happened. It's a country long since needing change politically.

 

[NW-Bound]

The global market shook off this referendum in "3 minutes" according to Bloomberg site.

Germany and France indices are up as well as European stocks overall. Italian index down. The euro is up to US$1.07.

 

[Totoro]

Yup, business as usual

Also, this time the polls were right.