Debt Ceiling Resolution Date/Time Prediction

[Westernskies]

November 6, 2012.

[BigNick]

This is what it looks like from over here.

We have a song for it, too: "The leaders of the free world are just little boys throwing stones".

‪Elbow - Leaders Of The Free World‬‏ - YouTube

[eytonxav]

While I think they will kick the can down the road by Aug 2, I hedge due to all the new the tea party representatives.

[jebmke]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DFW_M5 While I think they will kick the can down the road by Aug 2, I hedge due to all the new the tea party representatives.

the hobbits!

[Retire Soon]

August 2, 2011 9 A.M. EST

[dessert]

At this point, I'm not very optimistic at all. If the deadline is met, I am guessing August 1st at 2355 Eastern time complete with some weird ceremony by whomever will try and take the credit for it all.

[kyounge1956]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dessert At this point, I'm not very optimistic at all. If the deadline is met, I am guessing August 1st at 2355 Eastern time complete with some weird ceremony by whomever will try and take the credit for it all.

I'm pessimistic too. I think the mainstream Republicans may find themselves between a rock and a hard place now that the vote on Speaker Boehner's plan has been postponed. Unless they pull together enough votes to pass that plan tomorrow, the Democrats can put forward their plan on Monday, and the non-Tea Party Republicans will be faced with a choice between voting with the Democrats or getting to take the blame for whatever happens if the ceiling isn't raised before Tuesday. If the Boehner plan does go through, then the Democrats will be the ones who get painted into a corner. Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame.

Like dessert, I really am starting think this will go literally to the 11th hour—if not beyond.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyounge1956 I'm pessimistic too. .... Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame.

Aren't we already there? The House has already passed a bill, but as I understand it, the D-controlled Senate won't pass it, and The President has said he would veto it.

House passes GOP debt measure; Obama praises compromise plan - CNN

-ERD50

[DoraM]

Maybe we should add a new predicition: Guess the drop

I think DOW 10,500 by late August.

[BigNick]

What worries me about this article is not that Steve Jobs can apparently now order a bigger pizza than the President, but that the US seems to be down to pocket change.

I remember reading in a book by Lee Iacocca's about the day when his CFO told him that Chrysler was down to its last $1 million. As Iacocca said, this is like a regular citizen being down to a couple of bucks, some time before pay day.

[TromboneAl]

The resolution is easy, actually. Moody's writes a budget, sends it to congress and says, "Pass this today or we drop your credit rate to junk bond status on Monday."

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl The resolution is easy, actually. Moody's writes a budget, sends it to congress and says, "Pass this today or we drop your credit rate to junk bond status on Monday."

I like that! Hey, if two parties can't agree, sometimes you go to third party arbitration. Let's do it!

-ERD50

[kyounge1956]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Quote: Originally Posted by kyounge1956 I'm pessimistic too.(snip)If the Boehner plan does go through, then the Democrats will be the ones who get painted into a corner. Either they pass Boehner's plan and the President signs it, and we have to go through the whole mess again before the 2012 election, or they don't, and then the D's are the ones who have to pull a rabbit out of a hat by coming up with a plan that both houses can approve in an extremely short time frame. Like dessert, I really am starting think this will go literally to the 11th hour—if not beyond. Aren't we already there? The House has already passed a bill, but as I understand it, the D-controlled Senate won't pass it, and The President has said he would veto it. House passes GOP debt measure; Obama praises compromise plan - CNN -ERD50

I had not seen the linked story when I wrote my comment last night. Yes, since the House has passed Speaker Boehner's bill, we are "already there" and the ball is now in the Democrats' court. And now that I've re-read the front page of this thread asking to keep it non-political, that's all I am going to say about that (on this thread).

[Purron]

Now they're talking about a compromise vote at 1pm today. If this doesn't work, let's send in Suze Orman. She's usually deals with people who are really stupid and irresponsible with money. Her skills might be useful with this bunch.

[devans0]

Apple has more money than the government, and the government's amount is less each day. What day will WE have more than the government?

August 1st, 1300 Eastern time. Just in time to try to dominate the news with your party's spin on the deal.

[Bestwifeever]

And still in the running per T-Al's pool's rules ("If you think the debt ceiling problem will be resolved before Aug 2, predict the date and time that you think the resolution will be announced."):

Purron: revised to: 6PM Washington, DC time - July 31st.
Arebelspy: Aug 1, 9:55am EST
Bestwifeever: August 1, noon DC time
T-Al: 8/1, 11:20 pm
GregLee: Aug 1, 11:40 PM
dessert: August 1st at 2355 Eastern time

[ERD50]

Intrade - Congress to approve increase in US debt ceiling to $15.1T or more before midnight ET 31 Jul 2011 is 1.0% probable

~ 1% chance of a July31st approval, based on intrade 'betting'.

-ERD50

[Purron]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever And still in the running per T-Al's pool's rules ("If you think the debt ceiling problem will be resolved before Aug 2, predict the date and time that you think the resolution will be announced."): Purron: revised to: 6PM Washington, DC time - July 31st. Arebelspy: Aug 1, 9:55am EST Bestwifeever: August 1, noon DC time T-Al: 8/1, 11:20 pm GregLee: Aug 1, 11:40 PM dessert: August 1st at 2355 Eastern time

I think you might be closest Bestwifeever. Looking doubtful it'll be a done deal today.

[Bestwifeever]

I don't know, Purron, the Yahoo news headlines are now saying a deal is "really" close (vs. "close" half an hour ago)--you've still got an hour plus before the deal needs to be announced (not actually voted on). Get ready for your press conference .

[arebelspy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Purron Somewhere I read it's important to resolve this before the markets open in Japan. Made sense to me. Since Japan is ahead of us time wise, I'd say August 1st right before the Japanese markets open.

Yup. Wherever you read that nailed it. Announced tonight right as the Asian markets opened.

Will likely be voted on tomorrow morning.