Originally Posted by donheff
Rising interest rates are often accompanied by rising cost of living so higher payouts for Medicare and larger COLAs for SS - witness this year's 2.8%. So I would guess a wash.
Note that in this case wages are going up at the same time the cost of living and COLAs are going up. So, more current revenue.
OTOH, there is an annual gap, presumably the dollar amount of the gap goes up.
And, I believe the interest rate is the average rate on all outstanding federal debt, not the rate on new issues. So interest rates don't move all that fast.
Here's a table of short term projections: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2018/IV_A_SRest.html#90333
If I had the time this morning, I'd try some back-of-the-envelope calculations.