Long Term Economic Fallout From War In Ukraine

[yhoomajor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola I read that Russia still has $200 billion in gold within its borders, and that sanctions will prevent them from selling it to the west. Maybe China would trade for it, but at a likely discount, from what I read. We’re all getting a crash course in the ultimate efficacy of one’s financial reserves, including portable yacht wealth and luxury real estate wealth, when more powerful entities don’t want one to access them.

One benefit of Gold as a currency for a country (in its possession) is that other countries can not seize it or sanction it. And Gold is Gold. There is no discount needed. You melt it and it is still Gold, exactly same. No markings as to where it came from. So Sanctions on Gold will be a moot point when other countries trade with each other via Gold.

[Chuckanut]

According to a report on NPR, Russian airlines lease about 70% of their planes from western companies. Now, the airlines can't make their lease payments and the lease companies are wondering how to get their planes back if they are all sitting at airfields in Russia.

Lots of luck.

[Mr._Graybeard]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola I read that Russia still has $200 billion in gold within its borders, and that sanctions will prevent them from selling it to the west. Maybe China would trade for it, but at a likely discount, from what I read. We’re all getting a crash course in the ultimate efficacy of one’s financial reserves, including portable yacht wealth and luxury real estate wealth, when more powerful entities don’t want one to access them.

I would hate to live in a country that China has over a barrel. See Tibet, North Korea.

[skipro33]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut According to a report on NPR, Russian airlines lease about 70% of their planes from western companies. Now, the airlines can't make their lease payments and the lease companies are wondering how to get their planes back if they are all sitting at airfields in Russia. Lots of luck.

Air travel in Russia is not grounded. Check out Flight Radar. Lots of flights to non-NATO nations.

https://www.flightradar24.com/51.4,29.82/4

[Pellice]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola I read that Russia still has $200 billion in gold within its borders, and that sanctions will prevent them from selling it to the west. Maybe China would trade for it, but at a likely discount, from what I read. We’re all getting a crash course in the ultimate efficacy of one’s financial reserves, including portable yacht wealth and luxury real estate wealth, when more powerful entities don’t want one to access them.

I am curious about the real estate. We are hearing more about yachts and planes, but the real estate is where the most "reserve" of the reserves are - I know owners are hidden, hidden, hidden, but assuming much more is known about them than WE know, then will lawsuits, brought by the Hidden Ones' proxies, allow us to smoke 'em out?

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pellice I am curious about the real estate. We are hearing more about yachts and planes, but the real estate is where the most "reserve" of the reserves are - I know owners are hidden, hidden, hidden, but assuming much more is known about them than WE know, then will lawsuits, brought by the Hidden Ones' proxies, allow us to smoke 'em out?

There are various places around the world where the oligarchs are known to have residential property, most notably London. Boris has been quoted as saying the Brit authorities are busy digging out the true ownerships. I think Southern Spain is also popular and there are others. Non-residential property? Who knows?

[Markola]

…..and New York City, Miami, etc. https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs...erty-purchases

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 Air travel in Russia is not grounded. Check out Flight Radar. Lots of flights to non-NATO nations. https://www.flightradar24.com/51.4,29.82/4

Who said air travel in Russian is grounded? The Russian owned airlines can still fly within Russian. I doubt if Mr. Putin will enforce a Western company repossessing a plane from a Russian owned airline that can't pay the rent due to Western economic sanctions.

The problem isn't the airline's problem at the moment. It's the leasing company that owns the planes and leased them to the Russian airlines that have the problems. They can't get paid, and as long as the planes remain in Russian they will be difficult to repossess.

[Gearhead Jim]

^^^
It seems to me that for flying within Russia, the Russian airlines can tell the leasing companies to go pound sand. "We'll start paying you for your airplanes when we can start service around the world."

The sanctions will have an effect on parts, but to a place like Russia, airplane parts are a fungible commodity. They can cannabalize the "grounded" airplanes for parts, or quietly buy the parts in the gray market around the world. Not convenient or easy. but do-able.

[skipro33]

When you look at those planes on Flight Radar, move your cursor over a plane and click on it. It will tell you info about the flight including it's origin and destination. There are plenty of flights out of Russia to other nations, just not NATO nations. It's a big world folks. Many nations are staying out of this or outright support Russia.
What I read in your posts is that the rest of the world is under a no fly zone for Russian commercial aircraft. That simply isn't so.

[dtbach]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 When you look at those planes on Flight Radar, move your cursor over a plane and click on it. It will tell you info about the flight including it's origin and destination. There are plenty of flights out of Russia to other nations, just not NATO nations. It's a big world folks. Many nations are staying out of this or outright support Russia. What I read in your posts is that the rest of the world is under a no fly zone for Russian commercial aircraft. That simply isn't so.

But there are still plenty of screws yet to tighten on them.

[mpeirce]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 . What I read in your posts is that the rest of the world is under a no fly zone for Russian commercial aircraft. That simply isn't so.

It’s propaganda on all sides. Neither are the “good guys”.

War is bad, we should stay out of it.

[Bamaman]

I agree with so much that's been said. We can continue in hibernation at home--like the last two years during the pandemic. We drive a hybrid car so the gasoline price increases are not changing our driving habits.

We're still traveling to Europe once or twice a year, but our June trip with a stop St. Petersburg is cancelled. We're going to London and may hit The Alps--staying in small cities farther west. We have already been to Russia, but don't look to go again despite what happens in Ukraine.

I am afraid mostly of the value of the dollar and inflation. With Ukraine being #4 worldwide in many grain crops, U.S. crop prices will be very expensive as Ukraine agriculture will be curtailed greatly--at least until the military actions are solved. The question is whether our farmers can afford $5 a gallon diesel and super expensive fertilizers for current acreage--much less increased acreage? Are they willing to step up production to feed Europe?

Fuel has always been overtaxed and therefore overpriced in Europe, and they're going to see even higher energy prices. London petrol was $7.59 the other day per U.S. gallon--for example. And many EU countries screwed up putting all their energy eggs in hands of Russia--no matter who's in charge there. Their standard of living will suffer much more than ours. And factory production may suffer due to natural gas prices and availability.

Who knows what the outcome in the Ukraine will be? It looks like Putin intends to bomb their major cities to the ground--and Russia will never have the resources to rebuild. Poland, Hungary and other countries that are being overrun with refugees, but their resources are limited. We've been warned locally that many war refugees are headed our way too. Our foster family organizations will be stepping up to the plate. And I cannot see those that get this far, especially young orphans, moving back home again.

[ivinsfan]

Bama the issue with fertilizer will not only be price , there will be no fertilizer at all. We have had all our Spring fert paid for since Jan 3. Will we get it, that remains to be seen.

[Popeye]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan Bama the issue with fertilizer will not only be price , there will be no fertilizer at all. We have had all our Spring fert paid for since Jan 3. Will we get it, that remains to be seen.

Why would there be an issue with fertilizer availability? I’m curious since the fertilizer companies were one our biggest customer segments at Megacorp. They had been upgrading for increased production, reopening plants, even building new plants in the US once fracking brought down the cost of natural gas.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popeye Why would there be an issue with fertilizer availability? I’m curious since the fertilizer companies were one our biggest customer segments at Megacorp. They had been upgrading for increased production, reopening plants, even building new plants in the US once fracking brought down the cost of natural gas.

It's complicated....I'm an end user so prices are dramatically higher and have been trending that way for a long time. Just in time delivery is an issue as well. Corn acres require a tremendous amount of fertilizer.



You have to have ingredients to blend fertilizer.

[Surewhitey]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gman1234 From a purely stock market view, what about Boycotts of Russia? For example, if Burger King boycotts Russia, they lost that revenue. No else is buying more burgers to make that up - the sales are just lost. Thus, if Russia is, say 5% of sales, their revenue will be down that amount. Thus, many businesses that are boycotting Russia will have earnings reduced...which usually shows up in quarterly revenues and profits.

I would suspect that the currency devaluation (immediate 50%+) would make it hard to make money in any business that is dollar based. They're likely going for profit with less revenue vs less of both by staying open. People probably are hoarding necessities vs Whoppers @ 50% more cost.

[marko]

Maybe eventually inflation will push this thread over and merge with the "Blow That Dough" thread.

Personally, I just can't overly worked up. What will happen will happen but over my life things haven't changed all that much. I still go to the same places, do the same things, eat at good restaurants that I always did despite wars, global warming, high taxes, high prices and all the other social ailments. The mess in Ukraine is awful but there's not much we as individuals do about it.

Right now, I'm looking out my window at my neighbors on the beach in Fort Lauderdale and inflation, war and Covid are the furthest thing from their minds.

[Mr. Tightwad]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popeye Why would there be an issue with fertilizer availability? I’m curious since the fertilizer companies were one our biggest customer segments at Megacorp. They had been upgrading for increased production, reopening plants, even building new plants in the US once fracking brought down the cost of natural gas.

Russia is the world's leading fertilizer exporter.

[Gearhead Jim]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Tightwad Russia is the world's leading fertilizer exporter.

There is more, uh, "fertilizer" coming out of Russia than ever before.