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12-17-2009, 08:46 PM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
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Just to be a stickler, the claim that uninsured medical costs are the number one cause of bankruptcies is not necessarily logically inconsistent with a 17% incidence. Maybe there were a lot of main causes and none were 17% of the total.
Here's one of those studies reporting a high incidence of bankruptcies due to medical causes. From the abstract: " About half cited medical causes, which indicates that 1.9–2.2 million Americans (filers plus dependents) experienced medical bankruptcy
Looking at this study, I agree that it does a poor job of making clear exactly what role the lack of medical coverage played in the bankruptcies.
Here is a good study attempting to tease out the various reasons for personal bankruptcies. The most significant factor causing personal bankruptcies is not medical expenses . And, it's not job loss. It is overspending:
Quote:
This paper utilizes the population of personal bankruptcy filings in the state of Delaware during 2003 and finds that household expenditures on durable consumptions, such as houses and automobiles, contribute significantly to personal bankruptcy. Adverse medical conditions also lead to personal bankruptcy filings, but other adverse events such as divorce and unemployment have marginal effects. Over-consumption makes
households financially over-stretched and more susceptible to adverse events, which reconcile the strategic filing and adverse event explanations
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As one author looking at the above study put it:
Quote:
having a serious medical condition makes you 50% more likely to file for bankruptcy, but not because of medical bills; medical bills are only a very small percentage of the overall debt of bankrupts, and are not significantly correlated with higher credit card debt, which one would expect if people were keeping down their medical bills by charging them to Visa. Presumably it's the income effect of disability or caretaking responsibilities.
Job loss may precipitate bankruptcy, but bankrupts don't report being laid off at a significantly higher rate than the control group. The difference is, the control group had savings to cover its financial emergency.
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It looks like overconsumption of durable goods is the major cause of bankruptcies.
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12-17-2009, 10:00 PM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem
Just to be a stickler, the claim that uninsured medical costs are the number one cause of bankruptcies is not necessarily logically inconsistent with a 17% incidence.
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You are correct. I think I mentally read RIT's "#1 cause" as "majority of", which are not always the same thing. I probably made that slip because so many of the headlines from that report said something like 'over half the bankruptcies...'
-ERD50
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12-18-2009, 08:01 AM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Someone kindly send a link to this thread to Elizabeth Warren. She likes to point to medical issues as the cause of bankruptcies a lot.
And from samclem's link "Presumably it's the income effect of disability or caretaking responsibilities." - This is probably as much cause as the actual bills. Combine living above one's means and having no savings and you are walking a financial tight rope. Then add in illness and loss of income from a job due to caretaking or disability, and that in and of itself would lead to bankruptcy in many cases regardless of medical bills.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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12-18-2009, 09:22 AM
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#24
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 30
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What’s the definition of bankrupt?
At 12-18-09 04:14:51 PM GMT we were at $12,135,856,734,588.51 according to U.S. National Debt Clock
To me were all ready there.
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12-18-2009, 11:45 AM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasgotfire
What’s the definition of bankrupt?
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I also am confused about that. Maybe when we hold a Treasury Auction, and no one shows up?
-ERD50
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12-18-2009, 11:51 AM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasgotfire
What’s the definition of bankrupt?
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Maybe we start auctioning off hard assets that aren't being used very efficiently. The Capitol, the Whitehouse, etc.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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12-18-2009, 12:08 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasgotfire
What’s the definition of bankrupt?
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Good question. Maybe when the federal government's debts exceed all of its assets (land, buildings, property, et cetera)? Until then, the government could theoretically remain solvent by selling off assets to retire debts. Not that it would happen, but that might be one way to define it.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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12-18-2009, 12:12 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Until then, the government could theoretically remain solvent by selling off assets to retire debts. Not that it would happen, but that might be one way to define it.
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How do you place an accurate value on Yellowstone or the Grand Canyon?
Priceless...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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12-18-2009, 12:15 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
How do you place an accurate value on Yellowstone or the Grand Canyon?
Priceless...
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Maybe next time the UN meets in NYC, hold an auction on the courthouse steps outside? Highest bidder?
Who will be snapping up US properties a la Japan circa 1989?
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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12-18-2009, 12:22 PM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Who will be snapping up US properties a la Japan circa 1989?
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Whaddya bet the Sultan of Dubai has his eye on White Sands National Monument...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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12-18-2009, 01:03 PM
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#31
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
My thoughts are that this thread will have posts deleted due to political content and will quickly be porky pigged.
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..say it ain't true, REWahoo!
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12-18-2009, 01:30 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Whaddya bet the Sultan of Dubai has his eye on White Sands National Monument...
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Speaking of bankrupt governments... Dubai is apparently not doing so well these days.
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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12-18-2009, 01:48 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
How do you place an accurate value on Yellowstone or the Grand Canyon?
Priceless...
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Put it on ebay?
-ERD50
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12-18-2009, 02:27 PM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,558
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Owing money does not make you bankrupt.
Owing money beyond your ability to pay does.
The Federal government has revenues that are above $2.5 trillion. Interest on the debt is currently about $450 billion.
We are reaching dangerous levels, but wise action can still avert disaster.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wasgotfire
What’s the definition of bankrupt?
At 12-18-09 04:14:51 PM GMT we were at $12,135,856,734,588.51 according to U.S. National Debt Clock
To me were all ready there.
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12-18-2009, 02:33 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,499
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Heck, the US is already bankrupt, there are just arguments over how bad.
The real question, when will the currency be officially devalued? Amero anyone?
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There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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12-18-2009, 02:38 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ls99
The real question, when will the currency be officially devalued? Amero anyone?
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I'm waiting for the day the US government officially pegs the $ to the Ugandan Shilling (UGX) in order to stabilize the dollar.
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12-18-2009, 03:02 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,499
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__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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12-18-2009, 03:04 PM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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12-18-2009, 03:39 PM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,190
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Bankruptcy is a technical term that I don't think applies to the US. As I have said in previous posts, the US government will not default on its debt. It will print the monies necessary to retire its debts.
The real concern is the value of the $ relative to other currencies or commodities (oil).
You will know in no uncertain terms the jig is up on our profligate spending the day that Congress institutes capital controls. It is the final acknowledgement that the US $ is on its way to being worthless. Stopping the flow of $ into other non-US denominated assets is the final step to try to protect the currency.
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12-18-2009, 03:43 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LARS
Bankruptcy is a technical term that I don't think applies to the US. As I have said in previous posts, the US government will not default on its debt. It will print the monies necessary to retire its debts.
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Right. As long as there is a printing press cranking out fiat money, bankruptcy isn't the likely outcome -- high inflation would be.
Still, as an aside I question why the president would use a term like this when not all that long ago, he was chiding his opponents for using scare tactics about health care reform. Is it any more likely that we'd go bankrupt than, say, Grandma not getting a hip replacement because she's over 70 and we're rationing care?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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