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Planning Horizon Age?
Old 12-19-2019, 12:29 PM   #1
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Planning Horizon Age?

I just completed the Living to 100 Life Expectancy calculator and it projects I'll make it to 94 (wish there was a confidence interval).

With advances in health care it seems prudent to guess a little longer, I'm going to add 5 years, perhaps 10.

What do others use for this "terminal" age?
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:42 PM   #2
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100 is the default on MaxiFi, IIRC...I just left it there.

But I bet realistically most males of my age will be dead by their mid-80s.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:51 PM   #3
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We use 100 for the both of us. We'd rather have funds "if" we live that long rather than blow it early, expecting that we don't live that long but then find that we do. Then we also figure what is the situation if one goes earlier.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:56 PM   #4
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I am using 96 for younger wife and 88 for me.
That produces a worse result in the models than 95/95 because of the loss of my Social Security when I croak.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:44 PM   #5
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I am using 96 for younger wife and 88 for me.
That produces a worse result in the models than 95/95 because of the loss of my Social Security when I croak.
Excellent point. I'm going to make an adjustment - maybe 90 for me and 100 for DW. Thanks Dave.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:48 PM   #6
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After watching my parents age, I dropped my planning horizon to 85. I'd do earlier based on what I saw because their last years aren't really "living" (strokes for mom, dementia for dad). Maybe it was desperation as I needed the math to work with involuntary early retirement. The idea was to ride the motorcycle until the ATM went dry and then do a Thelma and Louise... but that lasted 2 years and at 58 my riding career seems to be over already.

Since then I've bumped the number up to 90 due to actuaries suggesting at 85 one still has a 1 in 4 chance of making 100.


I'm banking on the millennials and climate crusaders to pass more quality of life/end of life laws to get the boomers off the planet quicker in order to save it. The thought of living to 100 like my Dad is now is not something I want to enable.
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Old 12-19-2019, 02:03 PM   #7
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I use 95 for both of us. Parents are 89 and 86. Might bump up further depending...
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Old 12-19-2019, 02:07 PM   #8
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My pre-retirement calculations used 100 as my life expectancy. A lot of that was based on my family history with almost everyone making into their early 90's and one even over 100. That was last updated 10 years ago when I was younger (for sure) and dumber (maybe).

Now, based on the effects of aging and my lifestyle, I'd estimate I have a very slight chance to make it to 90. More likely, early 80's. At best.

After seeing my grandparents and parents in their later years, it's just not for me anyway.


Now, I'm off to re-read the blow your dough thread.
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:21 PM   #9
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The thought of living to 100 like my Dad is now is not something I want to enable.
I know what you mean. But having seen it up close as well, I know that you can still feel pain, hunger, cold and wet even through dementia. I would rather have enough funding to provide decent care.
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Old 12-19-2019, 04:11 PM   #10
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My VPW spreadsheet goes to 111, but the withdrawals start to diminish at 94. It should take me to 100 just fine if needed. My father, who used to smoke and had a major heart attack in his 50s (heart stopped 5 times) is 85 and going strong. He has a brother who is 93. I'm not predicting I'll make it to my 90s or 100 or 111, but I figure I should prepare in case I do.
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Old 12-19-2019, 04:19 PM   #11
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Planning horizon age? Until we're dead.
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Old 12-20-2019, 08:14 AM   #12
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In my 17 years being retired, my life expectancy has gone up from 81 to 87 and that is the 50%ile. To be 90% sure, I use 96.

US Lifetimes

Canada has an edge in the statistics but there is nothing about spending 6 months in Mexico. My guess is its higher.
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Old 12-20-2019, 09:04 AM   #13
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I have my end of plan set at 95, but once my wife starts receiving her SS our income will exceed our expenses. At that point our savings should continue to grow no matter how long I live.

Our portfolio will decrease each year until I'm about 69, then it should start increasing again. At least that's the plan.
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Old 12-22-2019, 10:16 PM   #14
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I use 95 but realistically will not make it even close if my family history is a guide. (Many dead before 60).
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Old 12-22-2019, 11:37 PM   #15
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I currently have one of us passing at 82 and the other at 100. It is in my spreadsheet and I enter earlier and/or later deaths for one or both of us when the market drops 10% to make sure we are still okay. So far, so good with 7+ years of retirement under our belts.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:57 AM   #16
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On men who have done physical work all their lives, I would say not many will live to be 90. 85 -90 is pretty tough on the male population. Many women will eclipse 90-95.
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Old 12-23-2019, 06:45 AM   #17
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My current plan has us running out of money at my age 105, DW 103. That is our target, and we update the plan regularly to have our last check bounce at that age. We have advised our heirs of this, and they should plan accordingly.

My DW's grandmother lived to 102, and her mother is alive at 97, so age 105 seems prudent.

I would rather have $$ late in life to pay for the fancy toilet paper and absorbent diapers. We have more than we need right now, so we do not think we are cheating our younger years. We are away from home 8 months a year and could trade travel $$ for medical $$ later in life.
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Old 12-23-2019, 07:19 AM   #18
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I use 96 for both of us, but we have a plan excess at the end so the effective age is even higher.
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Old 12-23-2019, 07:55 AM   #19
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My VPW spreadsheet goes to 111, but the withdrawals start to diminish at 94. It should take me to 100 just fine if needed. My father, who used to smoke and had a major heart attack in his 50s (heart stopped 5 times) is 85 and going strong. He has a brother who is 93. I'm not predicting I'll make it to my 90s or 100 or 111, but I figure I should prepare in case I do.

I didn't do the heart attack thing, but I think I can identify 7 times that my ventricles quit pumping blood.



When we did out initial planning we started 95 and 93, but we quickly changed to 115 for both as I think they was the end of RMD's table IIRC.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:50 PM   #20
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I used to plan for age 95 or so.

But the last time I ran FIRECalc was on 11/4/2019, and I ran it out to age 117 since that was the age of the oldest person alive at that time. By now, the oldest person is 116. I am not spending as much as those FIRECalc results said I could. I am not rich, but I don't want much so I will not be depriving myself of anything I really want or need even with a planning horizon of 117.

TBH my best guess is that despite longevity in my family, I will probably die in my 80's. But, if I am wrong and live to be older than that, well, I am glad that it appears I will not be old and destitute.
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