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View Poll Results: Your best guess of where do you see SS in the next 30-40 years
SS will remain as is 25 26.88%
SS will get cut by certain percentage 57 61.29%
SS will expand 9 9.68%
SS will disappear completely 2 2.15%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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Poll:What will happen with Social Security in the next 30-40 years
Old 04-10-2018, 12:31 PM   #1
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Poll:What will happen with Social Security in the next 30-40 years

No one, of course, knows for sure, but based on reasonable assumptions and knowledge you possess, what is your best guess?
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:34 PM   #2
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They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:35 PM   #3
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They'll also increase taxation of Social Security for those who have income from other sources- in other words, making it more needs-based.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:37 PM   #4
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My best guess is that it will still be there, but probably in some reduced form. I can't see it being taken completely away, but I can't see it going on like it has been, because it's not sustainable. My best guess is that in 30 or 40 years, retirees collecting SS will get 10-35% less than what they would have gotten if no cuts were involved.

You asked for a guess and that's mine.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:38 PM   #5
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All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:41 PM   #6
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All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.
But increasing taxes on SS income will be OK, right?
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:49 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
+1 Since those changes have been done before and have proved palatable, it seems likely they'll be repeated/expanded. When FRA was initially set to 65 the average life span was about 70 years. Now that lifespan has extended to about 80 years, one could argue FRA should be advanced to 75 but that probably is too big a jump from the current 67 to be done in one step.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:49 PM   #8
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Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:20 PM   #9
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So another question would be if they do make any changes, who will be grandfathered in? People in their 40's, the 50's?
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:21 PM   #10
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Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.
Man, I wish I had your optimism.
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:26 PM   #11
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The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:55 PM   #12
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The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....
Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:10 PM   #13
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I voted that will remain as is. At least on the benefit side (for someone over 62).

What I expect (hope?) is a combination of things said above:
- contribution rate will increase, but only a little. maybe only the employer contribution, so the employee "thinks" it did not affect him/her
- cap on earnings limit will be raised or eliminated, with no change on the benefit cap
- an increase in FRA, ultimately to 70, but keeping the early (62) benefit (but maybe reducing it accordingly). Phased in over 10 years or so, like last time
- change the 85% limit on taxes so 100% will be taxed at certain incomes

I recall a white paper that was referenced here once before, that basically listed a series of fairly small items like these that would solve the problem for "another 50 years".

There could be a few more tweaks. Some of these really add money to the system, others (like taxing 100%) are primarily to show that the "older folks" are paying too.

So maybe I should have voted differently, but I don't see any of these significantly reducing the benefit, or creating a hardship.
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:11 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by 220volt View Post
Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.
For sure you are correct on that point! ....

But when a Big enough calamity happens such as the Great Depression, that usually gets the Public's attention!
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:32 PM   #15
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Tax the robots and remove the words "collective bargaining" from the English language.
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:35 PM   #16
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I voted "as is", but I really only mean "the payment system will remain as is". The FRA will probably go up, tax changes will be likely implemented to increase funding (whether new taxes, changes to caps, etc I couldn't say at this point) though, so I guess my answer is "it will stay the same while it changes".
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:01 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
+1 I agree with this evaluation.
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Old 04-10-2018, 04:05 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
I agree with these ideas, but could also see some means testing to reduce benefits to high income retirees. In other words a haircut for those that have saved and provided for their retirement.
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Old 04-10-2018, 04:08 PM   #19
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As the poll is worded I voted for a cut in benefits through limits, taxation or other rule changes such as COLA, FRA etc. Like some many other areas, the bulk of the people won't notice since their monthly checks are largely unaffected. I will revisit my forecast in 15 years. And that's all I've got to say about that.
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Old 04-10-2018, 04:09 PM   #20
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+1 I agree with this evaluation.
+2 Exactly my thoughts.
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