Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Your best guess of where do you see SS in the next 30-40 years
SS will remain as is 25 26.88%
SS will get cut by certain percentage 57 61.29%
SS will expand 9 9.68%
SS will disappear completely 2 2.15%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Poll:What will happen with Social Security in the next 30-40 years
Old 04-10-2018, 12:31 PM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
220volt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: louisville
Posts: 41
Poll:What will happen with Social Security in the next 30-40 years

No one, of course, knows for sure, but based on reasonable assumptions and knowledge you possess, what is your best guess?
220volt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-10-2018, 12:34 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Brett_Cameron's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South Eastern USA
Posts: 1,068
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
__________________
All that glitters is not gold. -G. Chaucer, W. Shakespeare
All that is gold does not glitter. -J.R.R. Tolkien
Brett_Cameron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:35 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
athena53's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,327
They'll also increase taxation of Social Security for those who have income from other sources- in other words, making it more needs-based.
athena53 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:37 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
My best guess is that it will still be there, but probably in some reduced form. I can't see it being taken completely away, but I can't see it going on like it has been, because it's not sustainable. My best guess is that in 30 or 40 years, retirees collecting SS will get 10-35% less than what they would have gotten if no cuts were involved.

You asked for a guess and that's mine.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger

The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:38 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
dtbach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
dtbach is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:41 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
athena53's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,327
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtbach View Post
All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.
But increasing taxes on SS income will be OK, right?
athena53 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:49 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
+1 Since those changes have been done before and have proved palatable, it seems likely they'll be repeated/expanded. When FRA was initially set to 65 the average life span was about 70 years. Now that lifespan has extended to about 80 years, one could argue FRA should be advanced to 75 but that probably is too big a jump from the current 67 to be done in one step.
GrayHare is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 12:49 PM   #8
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 01:20 PM   #9
Dryer sheet aficionado
220volt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: louisville
Posts: 41
So another question would be if they do make any changes, who will be grandfathered in? People in their 40's, the 50's?
220volt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 01:21 PM   #10
Dryer sheet aficionado
220volt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: louisville
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.
Man, I wish I had your optimism.
220volt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 01:26 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Cut-Throat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,172
The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 01:55 PM   #12
Dryer sheet aficionado
220volt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: louisville
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....
Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.
220volt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 02:10 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
Posts: 3,903
I voted that will remain as is. At least on the benefit side (for someone over 62).

What I expect (hope?) is a combination of things said above:
- contribution rate will increase, but only a little. maybe only the employer contribution, so the employee "thinks" it did not affect him/her
- cap on earnings limit will be raised or eliminated, with no change on the benefit cap
- an increase in FRA, ultimately to 70, but keeping the early (62) benefit (but maybe reducing it accordingly). Phased in over 10 years or so, like last time
- change the 85% limit on taxes so 100% will be taxed at certain incomes

I recall a white paper that was referenced here once before, that basically listed a series of fairly small items like these that would solve the problem for "another 50 years".

There could be a few more tweaks. Some of these really add money to the system, others (like taxing 100%) are primarily to show that the "older folks" are paying too.

So maybe I should have voted differently, but I don't see any of these significantly reducing the benefit, or creating a hardship.
__________________
If your not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space.
Never slow down, never grow old!
CardsFan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 02:11 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Cut-Throat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,172
Quote:
Originally Posted by 220volt View Post
Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.
For sure you are correct on that point! ....

But when a Big enough calamity happens such as the Great Depression, that usually gets the Public's attention!
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 02:32 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
Tax the robots and remove the words "collective bargaining" from the English language.
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 02:35 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
exnavynuke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
I voted "as is", but I really only mean "the payment system will remain as is". The FRA will probably go up, tax changes will be likely implemented to increase funding (whether new taxes, changes to caps, etc I couldn't say at this point) though, so I guess my answer is "it will stay the same while it changes".
exnavynuke is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 03:01 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
VanWinkle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
+1 I agree with this evaluation.
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
VanWinkle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 04:05 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
38Chevy454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,354
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett_Cameron View Post
They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.
I agree with these ideas, but could also see some means testing to reduce benefits to high income retirees. In other words a haircut for those that have saved and provided for their retirement.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.

You can't spend yourself to prosperity.

Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
38Chevy454 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 04:08 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,983
As the poll is worded I voted for a cut in benefits through limits, taxation or other rule changes such as COLA, FRA etc. Like some many other areas, the bulk of the people won't notice since their monthly checks are largely unaffected. I will revisit my forecast in 15 years. And that's all I've got to say about that.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
foxfirev5 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2018, 04:09 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,233
Quote:
Originally Posted by VanWinkle View Post
+1 I agree with this evaluation.
+2 Exactly my thoughts.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What will happen if Social Security benefits are cut in 2034 joeea Other topics 77 12-19-2018 05:24 PM
Does anything "magic" happen at FRA for Social Security? AboutThere FIRE and Money 17 05-24-2016 12:40 PM
Lower gas prices means no Social Security increase next year kgtest FIRE and Money 82 10-20-2015 10:32 AM
Low Inflation = Social Security projected to have no COLA's for next 3 years shotgunner FIRE and Money 7 04-02-2009 03:14 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:14 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.