Repeat of the 1880s?

[Totoro]

Interesting article:
The World's First Self-Driving Semi-Truck Hits the Road | WIRED

Pick up the pick-up truck as it enters city limits

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky I don't think self driving driverless semi trucks will happen in this lifetime. The technology to assist truck drivers will happen soon though. So what happens when all these self driving semi trucks roll into cities like Chicago or Miami or Dallas. How would a self driving truck navigate these cities with the current state of our road and highway system. You still need the manpower to inbound and outbound freight. The new technology will make trucking safer but semi truck driving jobs are going to be around for a long time. Just Amazon alone outbounds thousands of truck loads daily nationwide that go to the rails,airports,postal facilities,UPS and FDX hubs,etc.

I think the self driving trucks are pretty much now a matter of when and not if:

"The technology already exists to enable trucks to drive themselves. Google shocked the world when it announced its self-driving car it had already driven over 100,000 miles without accident. These cars have since driven over 1.7 million miles and have only been involved in 11 accidents, all caused by humans and not the computers. And this is mostly within metropolitan areas....So according to Google's experience, the greater danger lies within cities and not freeways, and driving between cities involves even fewer technological barriers than within them. Therefore, it's probably pretty safe to say driverless freeway travel is even closer to our future horizon of driverless transportation. How much closer? It has already happened."

Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck - Scott Santens

[purplesky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort I think the self driving trucks are pretty much now a matter of when and not if: "The technology already exists to enable trucks to drive themselves. Google shocked the world when it announced its self-driving car it had already driven over 100,000 miles without accident. These cars have since driven over 1.7 million miles and have only been involved in 11 accidents, all caused by humans and not the computers. And this is mostly within metropolitan areas....So according to Google's experience, the greater danger lies within cities and not freeways, and driving between cities involves even fewer technological barriers than within them. Therefore, it's probably pretty safe to say driverless freeway travel is even closer to our future horizon of driverless transportation. How much closer? It has already happened." Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck - Scott Santens

It will happen. But not in your lifetime.

Its one thing to test drive a large self driving commercial semi-truck in a controlled experiment.
But the cost to rebuild highways and roads to accommodate commercial self driving trucks and rebuild hubs and terminals will not be cost effective.

You will still need to pay a truck driver to sit behind the wheel if these trucks share highways with other vehicles carrying people.

We actually have self driving trucks already today. They are going by rail.

Its one thing to have a self driving car take you to the airport.

Its a whole another level to expect the logistics industry to change overnight.

The cost is hard to imagine. Who will pay for it.

[ejman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky It will happen. But not in your lifetime. Its one thing to test drive a large self driving commercial semi-truck in a controlled experiment. But the cost to rebuild highways and roads to accommodate commercial self driving trucks and rebuild hubs and terminals will not be cost effective. You will still need to pay a truck driver to sit behind the wheel if these trucks share highways with other vehicles carrying people. We actually have self driving trucks already today. They are going by rail. Its one thing to have a self driving car take you to the airport. Its a whole another level to expect the logistics industry to change overnight. The cost is hard to imagine. Who will pay for it.

I don't think we'll need to rebuild highways or roads to allow for driverless trucks anymore than Google had to rebuild cities or city streets for that matter to allow for driverless cars. I think the computers will become smart enough (if not so already) to adapt to the infrastructure we have. As to the cost - who would have imagined that robots would paint the cars we now buy when those machines are so much more expensive than the humans who preceded them? yet here we are.

The history so far is that ludites don't win. I see no reason why that trend would change.

[purplesky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejman I don't think we'll need to rebuild highways or roads to allow for driverless trucks anymore than Google had to rebuild cities or city streets for that matter to allow for driverless cars. I think the computers will become smart enough (if not so already) to adapt to the infrastructure we have. As to the cost - who would have imagined that robots would paint the cars we now buy when those machines are so much more expensive than the humans who preceded them? yet here we are. The history so far is that ludites don't win. I see no reason why that trend would change.

And what year in the future do you expect to see self driving trucks pulling out of a Amazon distribution center and self driving that freight to a postal facility or a UPS/FDX Hub?

[ejman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky And what year in the future do you expect to see self driving trucks pulling out of a Amazon distribution center and self driving that freight to a postal facility or a UPS/FDX Hub?

I have no idea what method of distribution Amazon will use in the future but as I said in an earlier post I would not be surprised if in the next 20-30 years being a truck driver is no longer a primary occupation. As to the specific date c'mon

Tell you what, you give me the specific date the stock market will top out and in exchange, generous me, I'll give you the calendar date driverless trucks will become predominant. Fair trade no?

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky It will happen. But not in your lifetime. .

Speak for yourself!!

It might happen in MY lifetime.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I do not know much about the 1880 era, but we do seem to have a surplus of commodities now. Oil is suddenly cheap again. Industrial metals such as steel and copper are abundant again due to more mines opening up when demand drove prices sky high in the mid 2000s. I just read that pig farms in Denmark are having a hard time because they get only 1.40 euros/kilo, and need 1.70 euros to break even. Here in the US, there's overproduction of milk, and they just dump it in manure pits. A few years ago, several European countries had a wine glut, in which the vintners had to sell for a dime a liter to distill into ethanol to burn in cars. There was also a wine glut in Australia, South America, and South Africa, and the common solution was to let the vines die and cut production. Coffee is getting cheap again too...

I was talking about commodity gluts and forgot about raisins. Yes, just recently, on June 22 2015, the US Supreme Court struck down a federal program that existed since 1937 which regulated the production of raisin.

Basically, if the US raisin production exceeded a quota established by the so-called Raisin Administrative Committee (the name sounds communist, doesn't it?), the government would confiscate "excess raisin" from farmers without compensation. It was for the farmers' own good, it was said, so that the price would be kept higher. Could you believe that?

Some renegade farmers said "To hell with that", would not surrender their raisins, took it to the Supreme Court, and won. The Court in a 8-1 decision said that the government would stop this unconstitutional seizure of property without compensation.

So, watch for raisin prices to fall. Plan to eat more raisins. It's good for you.

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky And what year in the future do you expect to see self driving trucks pulling out of a Amazon distribution center and self driving that freight to a postal facility or a UPS/FDX Hub?

2021 or thereabout.

Peterbilt Demonstrates Autonomous Driving Technologies | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News
http://www.autonews.com/article/2015...-trucks-in-nev.

And don't forget the delivery drones... er... parcelcopters...
DHL Beats Amazon, Google to First Planned Drone Delivery | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News

[RonBoyd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplesky And what year in the future do you expect to see self driving trucks pulling out of a Amazon distribution center and self driving that freight to a postal facility or a UPS/FDX Hub?

Around the same time as the Internet collapses:

Quote:

The Internet could soon be a thing of the past. If we don’t figure out a way to provide data faster, it could collapse by 2023, says Andrew Ellis of Aston University’s School of Engineering and Applied Science.

10 Things We’ll See in 10 Years | Mental Floss

[daylatedollarshort]

I was at the library last night and all the books are self check out and in now at a kiosk. There were two librarians there just talking and seemed happy to have something to do when one of my DVDs would not scan readily. One said they purposely left RFID tags off some of the checkout items so they could have human interaction with patrons again. He was joking but it was funny because there was really some truth in it.

Safeway here has self check outs. The local library has 3D printers so in the future I assume we could just go there and make our own combs, musical instruments, lamps or whatever. The age of the tricorder (evolving smart phones) and replicators (evolving 3D printers) is coming to pass.

Lower skilled jobs are being replaced by technology yet SV mucky mucks resorted to wage fixing cartels to keep tech salaries in line and can't import enough H1-B visa workers to meet demand. Maybe seeing a two tier society is more pronounced because of where I live, but I do think we have to rethink as a society how we are going to address in the future the widening gap between those benefiting from technology changes and those losing their jobs from it. Not even factoring in outsourcing to lower wage countries, there just aren't going to be enough living wage jobs for everyone as technology replaces more and more non STEM type jobs.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort ... Maybe seeing a two tier society is more pronounced because of where I live, but I do think we have to rethink as a society how we are going to address in the future the widening gap between those benefiting from technology changes and those losing their jobs from it. Not even factoring in outsourcing to lower wage countries, there just aren't going to be enough living wage jobs for everyone as technology replaces more and more non STEM type jobs.

+1

Even STEM jobs are getting limited too. How many do companies like Google or Apple need or can use?

[marko]

But then on a thread titled "Job Sharing" on this forum today, there are some who advocate less full time work and replacing it with quality of life.

"imagine a world where most people work mostly part time. Instead we'd [my edit] raise our children better, pay attention to our governments actions, and generally improve society..."

So, would a reduced workload be a benefit to all? Have everyone at the beach while the machines do all the heavy lifting? Is nationwide modified-RE workable with everyone just clocking in 20 hours a week?

Personally I don't see how to pay the bills with everyone working part-time but it's a nice warm and fuzzy sentiment.

See the "Greece" thread.

One of the things I've learned from this forum is that losing one's job can be a beginning and not an end. Bad news: "machine took my job"; Good news: "machine took my job".

Unlike the 1880's there a so many social safety nets in place today that prevent a Dickensian outcome.

[NW-Bound]

Taleb, the author of the Black Swan book, brought up this phenomenon of "Winner Takes All". In ancient times, before the arrival of radio and TV, there were traveling troupes who could make their living entertaining villagers. There were traveling circuses bringing their acts to remote corners of the world on horse drawn wagons. And generally there are enough works to keep everybody busy.

Now, only the top entertainers make good money, and lots of it. By TV and now the Internet, people now want to listen to the top opera singers, watch the best tennis players, etc...

This situation is now spread to other industries. There used to be a dozen cell phone makers. How many survive to still make smartphones? And of theses few smartphone makers, they only need to hire a few programmers and engineers for design work.

In my recent RV trek, I saw that there are trends in agriculture to use more machinery to replace human labor. They now use tree shakers to harvest fruits, and huge trimmers to prune trees. I guess even illegal immigrants are now getting replaced by machines.

Not all jobs can be replaced by robots though. But these are menial, hard or dirty works that few want to do.

[Totoro]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Not all jobs can be replaced by robots though. But these are menial, hard or dirty works that few want to do.

Maybe gentrification?

I mean: hand-made cupcakes at 20$ a pop. Exclusive design shoes. hand massaged grassfed lobster.

In other words: artificial scarcity, status competitions.

I feel sadder now.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro ... I mean: hand-made cupcakes at 20$ a pop. Exclusive design shoes. hand massaged grassfed lobster. In other words: artificial scarcity, status competitions...

Thorstein Veblen (1857–1929), in his book The Theory of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study in the Evolution of Institutions (1899) where he coined the famous phrase "Conspicuous Consumption", described how rich people or the leisure class preferred hand-made goods, despite their often inferior quality to machine-made goods. The hand-made goods were of course more costly, hence bestowed a higher standing to the consumer. Their small blemishes were considered charming and having distinctive marks, compared to the mass-produced merchandise that was more uniform and exact.

So, perhaps we are not far from the industrialization era of 1880s, as the OP proposed. Maybe we never left it.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound In my recent RV trek, I saw that there are trends in agriculture to use more machinery to replace human labor. They now use tree shakers to harvest fruits, and huge trimmers to prune trees. I guess even illegal immigrants are now getting replaced by machines. Not all jobs can be replaced by robots though. But these are menial, hard or dirty works that few want to do.

I think this is the farm of the future - no bugs, indoors, not subject to weather variations, all year growing season, LED lights, low water usage and what is used is recycled, stacked vertically for minimal land use:

Q&A: Inside the World's Largest Indoor Farm | Nat Geo Food

Analogous to your entertainment changes due to TV and radio are universities with MOOCs. Why listen to a mediocre professor in person and have to commute when you can watch the best lecturers in the world online from your PC or TV at home?

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort I think this is the farm of the future - no bugs, indoors, not subject to weather variations, all year growing season, LED lights, low water usage and what is used is recycled, stacked vertically for minimal land use: Q&A: Inside the World's Largest Indoor Farm | Nat Geo Food

Years ago, in Epcot Center, we saw a demo or prototype of this large-scale indoor growing concept. I do not know if it is still there, or they have made any more progress. This Japanese facility looks real enough at a daily production of 10,000 heads of lettuce.

But I wonder what the production cost is. Produce is outrageously expensive in Japan, and what is economically viable there may not be here in the US. My wife saw that in the market there, they break apart celery bunches and sell them by individual stalks. Same with bananas.

Quote:

Analogous to your entertainment changes due to TV and radio are universities with MOOCs. Why listen to a mediocre professor in person and have to commute when you can watch the best lecturers in the world online from your PC or TV at home?

There we go. How do we disagree with that? But that means only the best workers in any field will get to keep their job. The rest of us will have to compete for the menial work. Heck, some of us may not be competitive there either, if they measure our output against the physically tougher immigrants.

Man, I am glad I am old.

[purplesky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by M Paquette 2021 or thereabout. Peterbilt Demonstrates Autonomous Driving Technologies | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News http://www.autonews.com/article/2015...-trucks-in-nev. And don't forget the delivery drones... er... parcelcopters... DHL Beats Amazon, Google to First Planned Drone Delivery | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News

The newest trucks do have collision mitigation technology and will have technology to help drivers.

But truck drivers will not be replaced anytime soon.

A self driving truck could work going across Kansas and Colorado on a new highway built specifically for trucks. Who will pay for the highway.

The big issue is money. The trucking industry is not going to spend billions of dollars on a technology that offers no profit to them.

Are tax dollars available to build highways and roads to accommodate self driving trucks. Not going to happen anytime soon.

You can build a self driving truck. But you won't be able to use it in the real world anytime soon.

The railroads are already moving trucks nationwide so thats another reason the trucking industry has no incentive to buy into a billion dollar technology that would still require a driver behind the wheel.

[Sarah in SC]

NW, your mention of Veblen reminded me of this great history lesson. If you've never seen any of the "School of Life" video series, I recommend it highly!

This particular one is the History of Ideas: Work, and focuses on the history of what "work" meant over the centuries, and how our comparatively new concept that work should be fulfilling came from the Renaissance. Veblen gets a shout-out about halfway through.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKnSMCjzmco