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easysurfer · 03-24-2012, 10:09 AM

The moment of Truth defined as:

A critical or decisive time on which much depends; a crucial moment.

No, not talking about who stays or gets booted on "American Idol", but about Supreme Court debates the week of the 26th.

52andout · 03-24-2012, 10:19 AM

It should be a most interesting week and could affect us all in many ways. Apparently there are three days of hearings, with the third afternoon involving Medicaid expansion.

REWahoo · 03-24-2012, 10:19 AM

Let's start a pool.

I say Porky will show up on post 23.

Major Tom · 03-24-2012, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

Let's start a pool.

I say Porky will show up on post 23.

Is this some kind of advanced mod technique that works by reverse psychology in order to actually try and prevent it from happening?

REWahoo · 03-24-2012, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Major Tom

Is this some kind of advanced mod technique that works by reverse psychology in order to actually try and prevent it from happening?

Only if I lose the pool.

**MichaelB** · 03-24-2012, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

Only if I lose the pool.

And that doesn't happen often..

M Paquette · 03-24-2012, 12:08 PM

We've already set aside a reserve to cover the risks of recission, and the risk of losing coverage for our over-18 college student daughter. Losing ACA at this point shouldn't add more than 200K or so as a worst case to the medical budget we've calculated.

As always, your mileage may vary, so do your own due diligence in budgeting.

unclemick · 03-24-2012, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

Let's start a pool.

I say Porky will show up on post 23.

Okay. What's the prize? And who is Porky again?

heh heh heh -

I'm just glad I got old enough in ER to know I'm supposed to care.

devans0 · 03-24-2012, 12:52 PM

I don't want to rely on constitutionality questions for health care. I don't expect it to survive this test, but what I know about the "Supremes" could be put in a flea's navel, with room to spare. I see many other countries get much better health care for a fraction of what we pay and figure that what we have is clearly dysfunctional. Sooner or later, it will change, but I keep it in mind as one of the few sectors I may invest in.

Gone4Good · 03-24-2012, 01:03 PM

Here are the estimates from five different sources about the impact of losing the mandate:

FinanceGeek · 03-24-2012, 07:01 PM

The collective wisdom at the decision market site intrade is anticipating that the ACA won't be thrown out, either by the supreme court or (by the implication that the next occupant of the WH will veto a repeal) by legislative action.

Intrade - The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012 is 34.0% probable

[mod edit]

I think many who normally abhor unbridled expansion of government power are going to acquiesce to a decision that does a great deal to separate employment from health insurance. By the way, doing so directly addresses one of the primary obstacles to ER.

samclem · 03-24-2012, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good

Here are the estimates from five different sources about the impact of losing the mandate:

Thanls for the chart. In the spirit of full disclosure, the source of this compilation, AHIP ("America's Health Insurance Plans") is a trade group of insurers who lobbied very hard for passage of the law and whose members obviously have much to gain from a law that forces Americans to buy products from their member companies. Obviously, they aren't a disinterested party. That's not to say that the information is incorrect.

An interesting metric that the above graphic missed: How does the mandate affect the federal budget deficit? Well, the CBO estimated that eliminating the mandate but keeping the rest of the ACA (subsidies, Medicaid expansion--everything) will reduce the federal budget deficit by $252 billion from 2011 to 2020.

If the ACA is retained without the mandate, CBO estimates that by 2019 39 million people won't buy health insurance. Today, approximately 50 million people don't have health insurance, so the number of uninsured is substantially reduced compared to the present situation. Moreover, every one of those people who chooses not to have insurance will have had the opportunity to buy a policy offered without need for underwriting, etc. The poor and not-so-poor will have Medicaid and generous subsidies available to help them buy policies. Every one of those uninsured will have chosen to "roll the dice" despite plenty of available options, unlike the situation today.

The SCOTUS begins their hearings Monday, but it will be months before they rule on the issue. Plenty of time to ruminate between now and then. All the guesses in the press about how the judges will see this (based on sketchy comments they have made, opinions they wrote sometimes many years ago, etc) harkens back to the days of the Kremlinologists who used to try to discern how the Soviet Politburo would rule and which party members would get promoted using similar small scraps of information.