Tomorrow should be fun... the trade war is escalating

[easysurfer]

Bill? Bill Maher? Is that you?

I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.

 

[ERD50]

I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.

Don't go there, it is Porky territory.

-ERD50

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

After the late Jan/early Feb sell off, I wrote (somewhere here) that I thought we hadn't seen the highs for the year. I still think that.

Here's a chart of the S&P 500thinkorswim Sharing. I drew the wedge lines, which is a positive formation. We had an exuberant top, a big decline, and then the lower highs with higher lows (wedge formation) which has been exited on the upside. This is positive. The market then rallied up to the Mid March and late February highs, which is also where the big down days were on the February swoon. There are a lot of people who bought the initial January selloff and early February who would like to get out, so this area is a natural place to meet resistance.

One possibility is that we revisit the wedge breakout levels (around SP 500 at 2650-2675 level) to retest the breakout before proceeding higher. This makes sense as the tech's are overbought. Things like the Russell 2000 already made new highs post February, eventually the rest of the market will be there. (I hope.)

Then again, it can all be random.

 

[marko]

(Not really a response to you personally but in general )?While this is true, it was still a very difficult time for a lot of people—DD’s hubs was out of work for an incredibly stressful two years, a contractor we engaged in 2009 actually started crying when we signed a contract, people lost their houses, I think the city of Chicago had zero building permit applications for a couple of years. So many lives put on hold. There are some threads here during that downturn that are so sobering.

True. I didn't intend to sound smug. At the time no one knew how long "2008" would last, although I remember some predictions were quite dire; "end of life as we know it" sort of thing. I was as [-]worried[/-] frightened as anyone else!

Again today, we also don't know if by December we'll be wondering what all the fuss was about or if everyone will be wondering how we'll survive.

My only point was that 2008 taught me that every few years we go through these panic modes in the market that turn out to be relatively short lived. I've mentioned before the story of my neighbor who proudly announced that she sold "everything" she had in the market on Friday of the last week of February 2009...and we all know what happened that next Monday (answer: someone bought her shares at rock bottom!)

One never says never but I try not to be overly concerned about market ups and downs anymore.

And I remind myself that the nice house I live in now was bought by my grandfather in 1933 as a Depression foreclosure for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Nemo2]

I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.

I don't follow/watch him either, but his comments, and the 'reasons' for them, were relatively widely publicized....further elaboration however might be inadvisable on my part.

 

[easysurfer]

I don't follow/watch him either, but his comments, and the 'reasons' for them, were relatively widely publicized....further elaboration however might be inadvisable on my part.

In that case, though I really don't follow him, he may be on the same wave length .

Let me state in a more advisable way. I'm ready for good bear market to give some clear direction. Get that out of the way as the last one was back in 2008-2009. Plus, I kinda want to see how my nerves hold out in another meltdown.

In the meantime guess will just have to wait and see like the rest of us.

 

[kgtest]

Bill? Bill Maher? Is that you?

ROFL! If I was drinking coffee, it'd be in my nose right about now.
Lot's of red on the investment websites today. Red fonts everywhere.

 

[NYEXPAT]

After the late Jan/early Feb sell off, I wrote (somewhere here) that I thought we hadn't seen the highs for the year. I still think that.

Here's a chart of the S&P 500thinkorswim Sharing. I drew the wedge lines, which is a positive formation. We had an exuberant top, a big decline, and then the lower highs with higher lows (wedge formation) which has been exited on the upside. This is positive. The market then rallied up to the Mid March and late February highs, which is also where the big down days were on the February swoon. There are a lot of people who bought the initial January selloff and early February who would like to get out, so this area is a natural place to meet resistance.

One possibility is that we revisit the wedge breakout levels (around SP 500 at 2650-2675 level) to retest the breakout before proceeding higher. This makes sense as the tech's are overbought. Things like the Russell 2000 already made new highs post February, eventually the rest of the market will be there. (I hope.)

Then again, it can all be random.

I basically see us in a "upchannel" that began in mid march. There have been 3 major trading opportunities and this one is the 4th. As long as we trade within this channel, I will buy the dips and sell the rallies. I pretty much ignore the noise, but am grateful for the opportunities it provides us .

 

[Sunset]

... At the time no one knew how long "2008" would last, although I remember some predictions were quite dire; "end of life as we know it" sort of thing. I was as [-]worried[/-] frightened as anyone else!

Again today, we also don't know if by December we'll be wondering what all the fuss was about or if everyone will be wondering how we'll survive.

My only point was that 2008 taught me that every few years we go through these panic modes in the market that turn out to be relatively short lived......

My regret for 2008 was because I was terrified of the future, that I didn't borrow to the hilt and buy the world.
I still won't because I have no idea if this time will be different, what if the downturn period is a relatively short 5 years ?

 

[HadEnuff]

 

[ERD50]

Sigh...

I don't worry about day to day. We will see.

-ERD50

And what we see is.... yesterday was down ~ 0.38%, and we've already recovered almost all of that this AM?

double 'sigh'.

Although some good came from this thread, like Another Reader, I noticed I had enough cash in my IRA from dividends to make another SPY purchase. So I did, w/o consideration to timing.

-ERD50

 

[kcowan]

I think the market uncertainty will continue for most of the year. That is what the prospect of trade wars can do.

 

[Dtail]

I think the market uncertainty will continue for most of the year. That is what the prospect of trade wars can do.

Agree, but it is too bad because it "feels" like the market should be in better shape if one takes out these types of extra factors....

 

[ERD50]

I think the market uncertainty will continue for most of the year. That is what the prospect of trade wars can do.

I think the market uncertainty will continue for [-]most of the year[/-] the rest of my life. That is what [-]the prospect of trade wars can do[/-] markets do.

-ERD50

 

[USGrant1962]

Agree, but it is too bad because it "feels" like the market should be in better shape if one takes out these types of extra factors....

Really? The S&P500 total return is ~30% since November 2016. What should it be?

Trees, meet forest.

 

[Free bird]

The answer is more more more

 

[Dtail]

Really? The S&P500 total return is ~30% since November 2016. What should it be?

Trees, meet forest.

Meaning the current market appears to be less effected by fundamentals rather than by trade policies, etc.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by USGrant1962
Really? The S&P500 total return is ~30% since November 2016. What should it be?

Trees, meet forest.

Meaning the current market appears to be less effected by fundamentals rather than by trade policies, etc.

So you are saying that most of that 30% rise is due to trade policies, not fundamentals? Go 'trade policies'! (actually, I'm not a fan of tariffs in general, but the entire situation is far more complex than that, I think)

-ERD50

 

[Dtail]

So you are saying that most of that 30% rise is due to trade policies, not fundamentals? Go 'trade policies'! (actually, I'm not a fan of tariffs in general, but the entire situation is far more complex than that, I think)

-ERD50

Not saying that.
Saying that the Current markets' potential is being held back by trade policies,etc.

 

[ERD50]

Not saying that.
Saying that the Current markets' potential is being held back by trade policies,etc.

Well, to the extent that the market does not like uncertainty, and there is uncertainty in where all this trade talk is headed, I suppose so.

But there is always uncertainty, so I'm not sure it matters. Name a time in our investment history where we said "There, everything is known. The market is right where it should be!".

-ERD50

 

[target2019]

really? The s&p500 total return is ~30% since november 2016. What should it be?

Trees, meet forest.

21/24 * (8 + 8) = 14%

 

[USGrant1962]

21/24 * (8 + 8) = 14%

I see what you did there

EDIT - And I got a dryer sheet promotion!

 

[Winemaker]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/german...ar-import-tariffs-1529492027?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Germany offers to scrap 10 % Tax on US autos and the 2.5% duty if the new tariff is stopped. Isn't this what free trade is all about?

 

[ERD50]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/german...ar-import-tariffs-1529492027?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Germany offers to scrap 10 % Tax on US autos and the 2.5% duty if the new tariff is stopped. Isn't this what free trade is all about?

Be interesting to see how the market responds to that in the AM. - ERD50

 

[NYEXPAT]

I could be wrong but weren't they insisting the US drop the tariffs on Pickup's?