Tomorrow should be fun... the trade war is escalating

[NYEXPAT]

With the DJI down near it's 200 day moving average again, I picked up another 100k of DIA this morning.

 

[Amethyst]

Let's see, let's see....do we invest my 2018 IRA (want prices to be low) or take out Mr. A.'s RMD (want prices to be high)? Always such a puzzle!

 

[NYEXPAT]

Let's see, let's see....do we invest my 2018 IRA (want prices to be low) or take out Mr. A.'s RMD (want prices to be high)? Always such a puzzle!

Perhaps, keep your finances separate?

 

[kcowan]

The US has a trade surplus on steel with Canada. So much for the trumped up National Security reason. So Canada will end up ahead on the 25% tariffs (assuming anyone can end up ahead on such dangerous games)!

The threat to impose tariffs on autos just indicates the total ignorance of the auto pact. The auto companies are not stupid!

 

[alaska55]

The US has a trade surplus on steel with Canada. So much for the trumped up National Security reason. So Canada will end up ahead on the 25% tariffs (assuming anyone can end up ahead on such dangerous games)!

The threat to impose tariffs on autos just indicates the total ignorance of the auto pact. The auto companies are not stupid!

I think you better do some more reading because you are flat out wrong

https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pdf

https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf

 

[HFWR]

I think you better do some more reading because you are flat out wrong



https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pdf



https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf

The United States by far accounted for the largest share of Canada’s imports by source country at 55 percent (4.8 mmt), followed by China at 10 percent (0.8 mmt), South Korea at 4 percent (0.4 mmt), Brazil at 3 percent (0.3 mmt), and Turkey at 3 percent (0.3 mmt).
Notably, while Canada’s top source countries have shifted from year to year, the United States has ranked as Canada’s top import source for steel products for more than 20 years.

Not a surplus?

 

[alaska55]

Not a surplus?

" the United States has ranked as Canada’s top import source for steel products for more than 20 years."


What don't you understand? kcowan is saying that Canada imports more steel from the US than we US import from Canada. Read the 2 pdf linked reports above in my post. Plus Canada has been proven to ship dumped Chinese steel to us. They got caught. You know what there answer was, we're try harder next time. Its called transshipment, the link is below.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=3f3b2007-0998-46d9-975a-75f439e12cf7

 

[USGrant1962]

OK, I'll do the math for you guys.

U.S. imported 34.6 MMT in 2017, 17% from Canada = 5.88 MMT
Canada imported 8.7 MMT in 2017, 55% from U.S. = 4.78 MMT

U.S. imports 1.1 MMT more that it exports. In trade talk this is a trade deficit (import more than export), not a surplus. The "deficit" is that U.S. is sending cash to Canada for steel. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade_deficit.asp

 

[alaska55]

This is a another article about transshipment of steel thru Canada, you don't see this story on CNN.

Why did Trudeau let Chinese steel put Canadian jobs at risk? -

 

[alaska55]

This is why you don't use Chinese steel from Canada. When a Canadian company ran tests on the steel they didn't match the test from China. You're kidding fasified tests from China no way.

Steel problems delay Johnson Street Bridge completion to 2017

 

[kcowan]

Obviously this is a topic that is beyond the capacity of our politicians to comprehend.

 

[samclem]

Is it useful/illuminating to go commodity-by-commodity to analyze our trade surplus or deficit with each country? The US has a huge banana trade deficit with Honduras. Is the answer to put a tariff on Honduran bananas, or to demand that Honduras step up the importation of bananas grown in the US? Cars, trucks, steel, bananas--is there any reason to expect or even desire import/export parity in each, when countries have comparative advantages (the very thing that makes international trade a net benefit for all)?

 

[HFWR]

What don't you understand?

Indeed, a zig when I should have zagged. Hopefully you weren’t injured facepalming...

 

[eytonxav]

I do not like trade wars over surpluses or deficits, but certainly if the tariff playing field is not level or their is intellectual property theft it needs to be addressed.

 

[rocks911]

I don't worry about day to day. We will see.

-ERD50

Yeah me either back in 08. Then I lost the gains of a decade or more.
I have learned that there are people (in government) that have an interest in collapsing the economy so their friends can buy up everything at fire sale prices. I now invest in Real Estate.

 

[limeyx]

OK, I'll do the math for you guys.

U.S. imported 34.6 MMT in 2017, 17% from Canada = 5.88 MMT
Canada imported 8.7 MMT in 2017, 55% from U.S. = 4.78 MMT

U.S. imports 1.1 MMT more that it exports. In trade talk this is a trade deficit (import more than export), not a surplus. The "deficit" is that U.S. is sending cash to Canada for steel. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade_deficit.asp

Would you not have to convert this into US Dollars to get the true answer ?

If US only paid $100/imperial long tonne for crappy Chinese-supplied Canadian steel

But Canada paid $10,000/imperial long tonne for our pristine US-made (recycled Canadian/Chinese) steel ... wouldn't this be a surplus ?

 

[ERD50]

Yeah me either back in 08. Then I lost the gains of a decade or more.
I have learned that there are people (in government) that have an interest in collapsing the economy so their friends can buy up everything at fire sale prices. I now invest in Real Estate.

I thought I learned that there are people (in government) that have an interest in collapsing the Real Estate market, so their friends can buy up everything at fire sale prices. I now invest in the stock market, buying on the dips.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4060386-u-s-real-estate-market-trends-characteristics-outlook

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from a peak of 184.62 in July 2006 reached a nadir of 134.01 in February 2012, or a fall of 27%. Regional markets, in particular Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and California, were hit with bigger corrections, ranging from 40% to 65%.

There might be some satire in the above post.

-ERD50

 

[USGrant1962]

Would you not have to convert this into US Dollars to get the true answer ?

If US only paid $100/imperial long tonne for crappy Chinese-supplied Canadian steel

But Canada paid $10,000/imperial long tonne for our pristine US-made (recycled Canadian/Chinese) steel ... wouldn't this be a surplus ?

Could be, but a commodity is a commodity for a reason.

 

[limeyx]

Could be, but a commodity is a commodity for a reason.

Yes but my point is trade deficit or surplus is measured in $ not tonnes of steel (or at least I thought so, it's honestly not my area of expertise)

 

[rocks911]

I thought I learned that there are people (in government) that have an interest in collapsing the Real Estate market, so their friends can buy up everything at fire sale prices. I now invest in the stock market, buying on the dips.

I see what you did there. Arent you clever.
I have more control with real estate than with the machinations behind the scenes and the insider trading that goes on on a daily basis with Wall street. But to each their own

 

[folivier]

My concern, and frustration, is that our politicians are often more concerned with their party "winning" rather than what is best for our nation and our economy. And this is an issue that occurs on both sides.

 

[ERD50]

...
I have more control with real estate than with the machinations behind the scenes and the insider trading that goes on on a daily basis with Wall street. But to each their own

I think you may be deluding yourself. The quote I provided:

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from a peak of 184.62 in July 2006 reached a nadir of 134.01 in February 2012, or a fall of 27%. Regional markets, in particular Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and California, were hit with bigger corrections, ranging from 40% to 65%.

Some of those numbers are a bigger drop than what my portfolio experienced.

-ERD50

 

[W2R]

Wow, looks like the market is headed back up today! Up 272 points already and it's only 10:43 AM on the east coast. Now that's a nice surprise, for me anyway.

That said, I must be some sort of pessimist. I had already assumed that we were well on our way to another 2008-2009. Not that it makes much difference to a buy-and-hold broad index investor like me; TBH I'm not losing any sleep over the market.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Wow, looks like the market is headed back up today! Up 272 points already and it's only 10:43 AM on the east coast. Now that's a nice surprise, for me anyway.

That said, I must be some sort of pessimist. I had already assumed that we were well on our way to another 2008-2009. Not that it makes much difference to a buy-and-hold broad index investor like me; TBH I'm not losing any sleep over the market.

Apparently. you called the top.

 

[kcowan]

Let see Stephen Colbert got slagged on twitter and the SCOTUS authorized selective bans?