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03-03-2018, 08:53 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
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Trade wars
I don't see how increasing tariffs will be good at all for the market. Will this be the straw that breaks the camels back?
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Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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03-03-2018, 09:25 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtbach
I don't see how increasing tariffs will be good at all for the market. Will this be the straw that breaks the camels back?
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[Let me say up front that as a Econ major and investor, I don't like that it is being proposed/done.]
It't not, unless the market is US Steel et al.
Not necessarily. Remember the game of chicken in the 50's? It depends on who blinks first....unless neither blink. It also helps (potentially) in terms of the voters of PA, OH, MI, WI - which are key to the 2020 election.
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03-03-2018, 09:27 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,496
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I don't like the tariffs but I'm wondering if this is just a first negotiating position - the art of the deal and all.
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FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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03-03-2018, 09:28 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Northern Ohio
Posts: 3,182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962
I don't like the tariffs but I'm wondering if this is just a first negotiating position - the art of the deal and all.
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Exactly
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03-03-2018, 10:02 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,150
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Newton's third law of motion:
"When one body exerts a force on a second body, the second body simultaneously exerts a force equal in magnitude and opposite in direction on the first body."
Read an article that if others retaliate, no one wins in the end.
Might see soda or beer served in paper cups (well, maybe not to that point just yet) .
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Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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03-03-2018, 10:14 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bernalillo, NM
Posts: 2,717
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The world has been down this path before. Trade Wars are not uncharted territory. Trade wars are bad for everyone. This has not happened recently because of all the international mechanisms set up to prevent trade wars (trade negotiations, treatys, international trade courts, etc.). Does no one with influence read history?
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"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" ...Michael O’Neill
"We can cannot compel others to do our will" ....Norman Goldman
"There never is shortage of the gullible to accept the illogical"...Anonymous
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03-03-2018, 10:20 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,765
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My biggest concern is the price increase in soda, which I drink a lot of (diet, so don't give me a hard time). I drink beer out of bottles, but I'm sure when they have to raise the price of cans, they'll spread it to the bottled beer too smooth the increase.
I know one of the main reasons given for the tariffs is a national security issue, that we need to be producing the materials for our weapons instead of importing it from potential enemies, but the major trading partner for aluminum is Canada. As someone else said, if it gets to the point where they are an enemy, we've got bigger problems than aluminum imports. I hope this doesn't go through. Nobody wins a trade war.
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"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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03-03-2018, 10:21 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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How does GATT (Article 6) 'Anti-Dumping' feature in this, vis-a-vis steel?
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"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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03-03-2018, 10:25 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,150
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European Union (EU) responding by weighing with tariffs of their own. On Harley-Devidson motorbikes, bourbon whiskey and Levi's jeans.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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03-03-2018, 10:28 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,401
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harley
My biggest concern is the price increase in soda, which I drink a lot of (diet, so don't give me a hard time). I drink beer out of bottles, but I'm sure when they have to raise the price of cans, they'll spread it to the bottled beer too smooth the increase.
I know one of the main reasons given for the tariffs is a national security issue, that we need to be producing the materials for our weapons instead of importing it from potential enemies, but the major trading partner for aluminum is Canada. As someone else said, if it gets to the point where they are an enemy, we've got bigger problems than aluminum imports. I hope this doesn't go through. Nobody wins a trade war.
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You sell us more steel than we sell you. Two can play at this game.
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03-03-2018, 10:41 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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IMHO, trade is over rated. We make all of our own stuff including the computer I am typing on. Just this morning the misses was making bread, soap and clothes. I am splitting roof shingles this afternoon and then I am going to roast my own coffee beans (which I grew) and plow the back forty (which I cleared with my bare hands). Tomorrow I may fire up the smelter and smelt some ore (which I mined). I am really dreading next year. It will be time to build a new car.
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"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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03-03-2018, 11:03 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,765
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Where do you have your clean room for producing your circuit boards and chips?
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"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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03-03-2018, 11:06 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,765
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer
European Union (EU) responding by weighing with tariffs of their own. On Harley-Devidson motorbikes, bourbon whiskey and Levi's jeans.
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I don't know about the bikes, but the other two are going to piss off a lot of European consumers. I guess that's why it's called a trade War.
HFWR, since you're going to Italy and Paris, you might want to wear a dozen pairs of Levis on the trip over. Black market sales could pay for your trip.
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"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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03-03-2018, 11:26 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,904
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"What we learn from history is that we don't learn from history."
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03-03-2018, 11:33 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Cholula
Posts: 1,595
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayHare
"What we learn from history is that we don't learn from history."
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+1
And those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. Or so said someone much wiser than me.
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“Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, you’ll be a mile from them, and you’ll have their shoes.” – Jack Handey
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03-03-2018, 12:09 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harley
Where do you have your clean room for producing your circuit boards and chips?
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The clean room is fairly easy. It just takes a lot of plastic wrap. The hard part for us do it your selfers is slicing the home made plastic wrap as thin as the comercial stuff.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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03-03-2018, 12:45 PM
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#17
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,724
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I highly recommend Michael Pettis’s book “Global Rebalancing” for a discussion on trade. He is one of the world’s top economists on economic growth and trade policy. “Global Rebalancing” is not a textbook, it’s more a series of essays that explain current trade imbalances and discuss different policy measures. You can find the book here.
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03-03-2018, 12:58 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,895
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962
I don't like the tariffs but I'm wondering if this is just a first negotiating position - the art of the deal and all.
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Exactly and if this is just an opening shot across the bow, the timing does seems a little goofy in light of the on going NAFTA trade talks.
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Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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03-03-2018, 01:05 PM
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#19
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,724
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This can be an interesting discussion on global trade and the impact of tariffs, but there’s no need to get into election related themes.
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03-03-2018, 02:32 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,265
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I have read suggestions that in the past foreign governments have aimed their 'retaliation' at businesses located in states that have politicians that favored the tariffs.
This may be even more complicated than it seems. Overall, I am in the camp of those who generally oppose tariffs. OTOH, If some countries with unfair tariffs and restrictions on our products won't play fairly......
Like my old grand-pappy used to say "When you want a donkey to get moving, the first thing you do is hit it over the head with a 2x4 to get its attention".
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The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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