Are you preparing for life disruptions from this winter/Omicron COVID surge?

[W2R]

I can't even imagine how life could be any more disrupted than it was during the spring of 2020, in my location. At that time we were sternly told by local authorities that it was FORBIDDEN for anyone to leave home for any reason whatsoever except for food or prescriptions, generally via drive through and don't take the long way home. This was because we were the hardest hit community in the country for a month or two at the beginning (or so we were told?). The streets here were deserted since nobody else was going anywhere either.

Pretty scary at the time, and for a while we didn't even dare go to the boat launch to watch the birds from our car with the windows up. We stayed home (mostly at my insistence), except that Frank would walk over to my house through the back yards and spend time over here. After a few months of staying home, we found out that despite the threatening language in local government press releases, actually there were no consequences for driving around with the windows up. So, we could go on pleasure drives at least. By the late spring or summer of 2020 we started eating at restaurants again, outside, then inside. And now, we mostly get restaurant food to go.

It didn't take long for us to get used to everything and this just seems like normal life to us. I know, that sounds sick! But we were introverts to begin with, so the shift wasn't that difficult. Not much is different. Even before the pandemic we never went to concerts, parties, events, and so on.

So anyway, even though we are told the Covid surge here is among the worst in the country at the present moment in time, we aren't preparing for further life disruptions really. What could happen that didn't happen already back in 2020? I can't think of much.

We are enjoying life at home and I am playing a lot of Animal Crossing (my favorite non-violent video game), while he is enjoying catching up on streaming videos and also old magazines and movies from times before we were born. We do almost everything online. I ordered some peanut butter from Amazon, does that count as preparing for a Great Peanut Butter Shortage? I still have plenty of paper towels and TP. My freezer is empty so I should probably do something about that but I haven't.

 

[Keim]

...
They also pointed out the huge losses we've suffered in terms of mental illness, delays in kids' education, people avoiding or unable to get routine screenings or treatment for other conditions.

I run a free behavioral health recovery community center and associated crisis center. Our recovery coaching services are up about 20%. Overall support group attendance is up 10%. And that's on top of them being up last year. Crisis Center is about average, but how we serve people has changed. Much more work on the phone vs face to face.

Interesting times to do this work.

 

[Hamlet]

I'm still glad I'm vaccinated and boosted and will continue wearing masks indoors but I'm wondering if it's time for 99% of us to relax a bit.

I’m taking my queue from my state’s hospitalizations and deaths ( I’m in Minnesota). I’m not particularly concerned with getting it myself, since most everyone I’m close to is vaxed/boosted. I just want to do my part to keep the hospitals out of dying in the street mode.

We are still dealing with a pretty hideous Delta wave that spiked hospitalizations and deaths up almost as high as last December. It has dropped down some, but it is still extremely concerning. The cases have started ramping up again, so I’m guessing we are starting our Omicron wave.

Time will tell if we get a corresponding spike in hospitalizations. The people I know in healthcare feel like they’ve been thru a war. I don’t think our health care system can sustain this level of strain for much longer, so I’m really hoping that we don’t see another spike.

Ultimately, about the only behavior of mine it affects much is that I’m wearing a mask when I go out shopping, reducing dining out, and putting off any stuff like movies or plays. I suspect that regardless of how it goes, by the end of February things will have settled down, since Omicron appears to move so fast.

I want to go to see the new Spiderman movie, but I’m going to hold off a couple of weeks to see how bad the hospitalization ramp up is.

 

[disneysteve]

Some sobering updates from our morning staff meeting:

Our hospital system (major multi-hospital network in NJ) now has the highest ever number of patients hospitalized for COVID. Our ICUs are at capacity and they are starting to convert other patient rooms into additional ICU beds. They are talking about reactivating the disaster surge plan which could reassign staff and providers (including me) to the hospitals to help with the excess volume. All elective surgeries are cancelled. Zero visitor policy is back in effect. As of yesterday, there were at least 100 patients being held in the ERs awaiting admission but there’s just nowhere to put them.

But not to worry. Omicron is mild. Not a big deal at all.

 

[tmm99]

So very sorry to hear that, disneysteve.

The conditions in the region I live in Ontario, Canada aren't as dire as your city yet, but I heard that hospitalizations in Ontario have nearly tripled in the last week alone, so but Ontario wants to try to contain the spread before it becomes much worse (their projected numbers are very bad without changing the current, more restricted rules announced just two weeks ago), so starting today, there will be no more indoor dining, no more indoor sports or gyms (except for pros and semi-pros), 50% cap on retailers/malls, etc. All surgeries except for the life-threatening kind are on pause. I'm glad that they're trying to contain the spread. The province never dropped the indoor masking mandate, so that's a good thing. I see more people wearing N95/KN95 masks in stores now. I still see a couple of people in stores with their nose exposed every time, but it's always been like that...

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Thanks, but I just listened to part of a 2+-hour podcast with Dr. Peter Attia with an update on COVID- he always brings in really good, credible experts for intelligent discussions.

Wow, have things changed over the last 6 months.

First, they agree that Omicron is a lot less dangerous than the earlier variants and that vaccines have greatly lessened the severity of the disease. Certainly there are exceptions but the vast majority are the elderly or otherwise vulnerable, who also succumb to the flu every year. Is it worthwhile to develop policies that protect them but also enforce them for the entire population?

They believe that there's a ton of natural immunity among survivors but that the government hadn't conducted a proper study. It's easy and cheap to measure antibodies but we really need to look at t-cells.

We have good treatment protocols for those who do get severe cases.

They also pointed out the huge losses we've suffered in terms of mental illness, delays in kids' education, people avoiding or unable to get routine screenings or treatment for other conditions.

I'm still glad I'm vaccinated and boosted and will continue wearing masks indoors but I'm wondering if it's time for 99% of us to relax a bit.

All very good points. I was at the vet yesterday getting a furry companion looked at and had a discussion with the DVM who had recently contracted/recovered from COVID. She brought up a good point that I hadn't really thought about...all the isolation has probably not been great for our natural immunity for "other" ailments such as colds. This isn't to say we should all get willy nilly about it, but that those that are fully vaccinated and in relatively good health should go on with living their lives and I would *like* to agree...but...

As DisneySteve has pointed out, there are areas that hospitals are overwhelmed. We have similar issues here, not so much with bed availability but as to STAFF required to use them.

So, it seems to be a balancing act and trying to figure out a "happy medium" is pretty darn tough. I would like to live like it was 2019, but I also don't want the hospitals overrun. DW had spinal surgery just as things were shutting down last year. Her surgeon said that had she waited just a couple more days, he would have had to fight for her to have the surgery. Had she not had it when she did, it is quite possible that she could have been permanently paralyzed and that is a very scary thought as I know 1000s of people have been (or are in) similar circumstances.

I still would prefer NOT to get it (even if mild/no symptoms) for the simple fact we don't know what might happen in 5-10-20 years (such as chicken pox as a kid and then shingles as an adult).

 

[Aerides]

She brought up a good point that I hadn't really thought about...all the isolation has probably not been great for our natural immunity for "other" ailments such as colds. This isn't to say we should all get willy nilly about it, but that those that are fully vaccinated and in relatively good health should go on with living their lives and I tend to agree.

I've heard that and I'm not buying it. If anything I'm thrilled to not have a cold or other bug for 2 years. I wasn't a frequent cold-catcher to begin with, but I'm not worried about trading any unproven immunity for common colds vs. Covid. My main exposure to them was parents of young children in the workplace, which went to zero after I retired.

I'm also very over anyone who is not in a position of expertise, to say anything about how I "should" be leading my life.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I've heard that and I'm not buying it. If anything I'm thrilled to not have a cold or other bug for 2 years. I wasn't a frequent cold-catcher to begin with, but I'm not worried about trading any unproven immunity for common colds vs. Covid. My main exposure to them was parents of young children in the workplace, which went to zero after I retired.

I'm also very over anyone who is not in a position of expertise, to say anything about how I "should" be leading my life.

Also good points. I try and listen to both sides and arguments (often opinions) and make the best decision I can with information provided. I am NOT a fan of looking for opinions that support my thoughts and sticking with that...so the DVMs opinion is of some value to me and she wasn't telling me how I should lead my life (I can see that my post came across that way, but it wasn't my intention). Also, while I understand that science is ever changing; many of the "experts" have refused to concede past incorrect thinking and this has bothered me quite a bit to the point that I am becoming untrusting of many of these "experts."

 

[tmm99]

I wasn't prepared for this winter surge. I got boosted and I was looking forward to playing volleyball with my renewed immune boost, but the region stopped all indoor sports for now. I hope our region will be in good enough shape in a month or two to restart indoor sports activities as the efficacy of my booster will only wane over time...

 

[athena53]

I try and listen to both sides and arguments (often opinions) and make the best decision I can with information provided. I am NOT a fan of looking for opinions that support my thoughts and sticking with that...<snip> Also, while I understand that science is ever changing; many of the "experts" have refused to concede past incorrect thinking and this has bothered me quite a bit to the point that I am becoming untrusting of many of these "experts."

I agree. What we know keeps changing (I remember spraying down my groceries after bringing them home) and the honest experts aren't afraid to change course when necessary. During Delta (and I know it's still with us although it's a minority of cases), "get vaccinated ASAP, doesn't matter which one" was probably good advice. Omicron is a different situation (and yes, I know the virus may develop new variants). The point the docs in the podcast made- that having a strict, rigid set of preventative measures that are necessary for the most vulnerable (obese, smokers, elderly) and imposing it on the whole population- is starting to make sense right now.

Darn I'm starting to sound like my unvaccinated brother.

 

[Turbo29]

I'm also very over anyone who is not in a position of expertise, to say anything about how I "should" be leading my life.

Unfortunately, the people with expertise have been anything but consistent in their messaging.

 

[pacergal]

Our region is being hit via employee illness--many restaurants closing early or all day due to no staffing, our local walk in bank was closed yesterday with a note on the door to that effect also.
I just ordered my online grocery pick up from Kroger. I have been able to get same day or next day easily--nope, just now is three days out and only one slot left.

 

[Gumby]

Unfortunately, the people with expertise have been anything but consistent in their messaging.

Science changes and evolves as knowledge increases. One of the hallmarks of a fully developed mind is the ability to cope with incomplete, inconsistent, ambiguous and changing information. If you want absolute, unchanging truth and you want it instantly, then you're better off sticking with religion.

 

[flyingaway]

We played over-night on the New Year's Eve in a packed casino. There were probably 10 ~ 20% people wearing masks. I think many people are just tired of the virus.

 

[travelover]

Unfortunately, the people with expertise have been anything but consistent in their messaging.

Yea, given that we have a pandemic every hundred years, it seems like this would be all buttoned up.

 

[street]

Not changing anything going forward and not a lot has changed in our life since the viruses anyway.
As for the new viruses coming this winter not to concerned just need to use PPE when you need to. I will get the booster today and that is about one can do unless you want to live underground till all is clear.
Common sense PPE and shots and live life without fear.

 

[dak2018]

We played over-night on the New Year's Eve in a packed casino. There were probably 10 ~ 20% people wearing masks. I think many people are just tired of the virus.

Unfortunately for lots of those not wearing masks, the virus is not tired of infecting people. Amazing that the population as a whole can't even embrace the simple mitigation of wearing an effective mask properly when indoors.

 

[razztazz]

Unfortunately, the people with expertise have been anything but consistent in their messaging.

Science changes and evolves as knowledge increases. One of the hallmarks of a fully developed mind is the ability to cope with incomplete, inconsistent, ambiguous and changing information. If you want absolute, unchanging truth and you want it instantly, then you're better off sticking with religion.

That's different from inconsistent messaging. The problem from the subject matter experts has been speaking with stridency for certitude. Then when they get caught in this cognitive dissonance they say cuties like science is a journey not a destination. Ambiguities. Changing information. We all know that. Not an excuse.



Everybody else is not a scientist. Speak to them. But it's easier to demean people who have trouble falling for constantly changing ambiguities. I understand all the science. It's not lost on me. If they don't know, say so. If we need to do this or that say why even in the face of the ambiguities. Instead they pound the trouble. "because daddy said so!

But it's always false certitude and, what I perceive as, an almost focus grouped stridency. But these dunces cannot communicate. Or don't want to be held to anything except any hits they score, of course. Like the police, politicians, and market pundits predicting a "market crash. But these have little credibility to begin with.

 

[jollystomper]

Science changes and evolves as knowledge increases. One of the hallmarks of a fully developed mind is the ability to cope with incomplete, inconsistent, ambiguous and changing information. If you want absolute, unchanging truth and you want it instantly, then you're better off sticking with religion.

I have no problem with science changing as we learn more, but to be blunt, I can cite many examples of the science being more influenced by social, financial, and political winds, and not by hard, long term data.

 

[Gumby]

Did you ever think of the burden they have in communicating with people who want a complete answer right this minute when the known facts don't accommodate one? People who are incapable of comprehending nuance? People who will completely disregard all caveats and qualifications and will then raise holy hell if it turns out that one of those caveats or qualifications occurs. People who will seize on one particular aspect of the message to the exclusion of all else. People who insist that you never knew what you were talking about because you once said "X" and, upon gathering further data, you now think that "Y" is the right answer. People who appear hell bent on challenging you or ignoring you for their own peculiar political reasons and who will seize on any ambiguity, loose end, unknown fact, or change in your prior conclusions to accomplish that? People whose modus operandi in life is to figuratively stick their fingers in their ears and yell "Lalala, I can't hear you?"

That's what they are facing, along with a novel virus that keeps changing. It is a miracle that any of them bother to communicate with us at all.

 

[Turbo29]

Science changes and evolves as knowledge increases. One of the hallmarks of a fully developed mind is the ability to cope with incomplete, inconsistent, ambiguous and changing information. If you want absolute, unchanging truth and you want it instantly, then you're better off sticking with religion.

Some of the pronouncements the experts have made have been essentially religion as they had nothing to back it up. They are absolutely sure until they are not.

Some of these people have done grave damage to the field of public health.