|
|
06-15-2021, 02:25 PM
|
#101
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,396
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RetireeRobert
Yes, "low risk". IMHO.
|
I agree.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
06-15-2021, 06:51 PM
|
#102
|
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,036
|
As I mentioned sometime last year, I've done way more dangerous stuff than that in my life.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
|
|
|
06-15-2021, 07:41 PM
|
#103
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivinsfan
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Generally perceived as better than talking to ourselves.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum
Or arguing with one's self!
|
When a person talks to him/herself, but neither agreeing nor arguing, what is the talk about?
Debating, pleading, commiserating, begging, imploring, consoling, what?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
06-15-2021, 08:24 PM
|
#104
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 9,958
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
When a person talks to him/herself, but neither agreeing nor arguing, what is the talk about?
Debating, pleading, commiserating, begging, imploring, consoling, what?
|
You forgot venting. I vent to myself a whole bunch.. it's better that way.
|
|
|
06-17-2021, 02:52 PM
|
#105
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Des Moines
Posts: 1,389
|
Not sure where to ask this, but the thread about the wedding and vaccinated guests seems to have disappeared?
__________________
Retired in 2013 and we are living the dream!
|
|
|
06-17-2021, 03:40 PM
|
#106
|
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,036
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by iloveyoga
Not sure where to ask this, but the thread about the wedding and vaccinated guests seems to have disappeared?
|
Threads are often taken off line while the moderators discuss what to do about problematic posts. It keeps problems from getting worse.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
|
|
|
06-17-2021, 03:45 PM
|
#107
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,087
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 24601NoMore
Not sure where you're getting those numbers, because the percentage of non-vaccinated population to have gotten COVID19 to-date is a lot higher than 0.2%.
US Cases to-date: 34,342,366
US Population: ~331M
(See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Of course, "some" of those infections are vaccinated people, but for sake of example, let's assume most all are un-vacc'd.
So, rate of infection is ~10.37%, not .2%.
Now, since Pfizer protects 88% against the Delta variant..
(1 - .88) * 10.37 = 1.24%.
A heck of a lot better than 10.37%, but still quite a bit above "low" risk IMHO.
|
I think you are mixing the timeline with infection rate.
If the infection of:
US Cases to-date: 34,342,366 out of US Population: ~331M happened within 2 weeks, I'd agree the infection rate is ~10.x%
However it was over a time span of 1.3 yrs , so I think you have to divide by some time factor.
Otherwise if I went out 10 times or more last year, at a 10% rate, I was pretty sure to catch it and I didn't. Even thought I went out well over 100 times.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 01:29 PM
|
#108
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Des Moines
Posts: 1,389
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Threads are often taken off line while the moderators discuss what to do about problematic posts. It keeps problems from getting worse.
|
Thank you!
__________________
Retired in 2013 and we are living the dream!
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 03:45 PM
|
#109
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 557
|
Yes, if you are vaccinated, you can still get Covid. But the science is saying that it will not be severe enough to be hospitalized/die.
I think everyone who has been vaccinated should take the precaution they feel safe with. For some, especially if they live with vulnerable people, that may mean masks all the time and others feel fine without the mask and only put one one in places (like medical offices) where required.
I know someone who is very anti-vaccine. if I am around her for any length of time, I will wear a mask.
But if your spouse has a fear about this, I think for the long term health of the marriage, agree to wear one too until she relaxes her standards.
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 04:19 PM
|
#110
|
Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 7
|
Thank You!
Gumby! Thank you! I was waiting for someone to reply that x% efficacy doesn’t mean you odds of catching covid are 1-x% when vaccinated. That’s part of the problem with people in this world arguing back and forth and spreading numbers but not actually understanding how to interpret them. For people to truly understand their risk and “get back to normal” they have to understand relative and absolute risk. Hell, even the the news about JNJs efficacy is underrated because when you look at the data, the absolute risk reduction is better than Pfizer and Moderna. It just happened that JNJs trial took place when cases were out of control so way more people got covid in both the placebo and vaccine arm. Just goes to show you that until you really get statistics, you will be at the mercy of your echo chamber.
Good luck and get shot (covid shot).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Actually, I think you are confusing relative risk and absolute risk. Vaccine efficacy is a measure of relative risk. That is, it tells you how much better you would have fared if you had the vaccine than if you had not. It does NOT tell you your risk of contracting Covid. This can be seen in the vaccine trial data. To wit:
source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577
The absolute risk of catching Covid among the unvaccinated during the trial period of 2 months was 162/21,278 or 0.76% (so a 99.24% chance that you would not catch Covid even if unvaccinated during those two months.) The absolute risk of catching Covid if you were among the vaccinated was 8/21,270 or 0.04% (so a 99.96% chance that you would not catch Covid.) The relative risk reduction (efficacy) is 1-(.04/0.76) = 94.7%.
Even if the Pfizer vaccine were only 88% effective against the Delta variant, that would put your chances of catching Covid at 0.09% (assuming that the Delta variant is as transmissible as the original) NOT 12% .
Here's the math:
162/21,278 people in unvaccinated group catch Covid
vaccine is 88% effective, so
162 x (1 - .88) = 19.4 people in vaccinated group catch Covid
which means your odds of catching Covid (Delta) are 19.4/21270 = 0.09%
|
|
|
|
Common sense + good judgment
06-18-2021, 04:28 PM
|
#111
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 80
|
Common sense + good judgment
Heartbeats are precious. Use reasonable infectious disease practices, but don't let you life slip by. Your vaccination + intelligent behaviors and practices will take your protection level into the high 90% ...at least that's what believed today.
You and your partner are not getting younger. It's like deciding how much $ is enough and retiring. Information decision making with common sense will guide you through the next few years of the pandemic ( and you thought it would be over...when?).
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 04:39 PM
|
#112
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 23
|
My sister and I ( 61 and 67) really locked down for the past 14 months. No restaurants, minimal grocery shopping. I had a weekly PT appointment from July to December but that was the extent for us . Deliveries, instacart and a very small immuno-bubble of 2 other like minded people. 15 days after my second shot in March I went out to dinner. I’ve traveled twice by road and plane and am getting back to very close to normal. Caught a slight cold and wore a mask for a few days to keep others safe. I’m trusting the vaccine.
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 05:00 PM
|
#113
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,241
|
I don't understand what your concern is.
My husband (67) is vaccinated and I'm not (65).
Even when he wasn't vaccinated we lived life to it's fullest and with other people as best we could around and with what was going on. We still do. Neither of us or anyone we know we have been with has gotten COVID as far as we know.
Heck- it's motorcycle week here where we live and we have been around thousands of people form all over the country. Next week we actually have a festival we are going to with 2500 people in attendance.
Go out and live your lives already!
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 05:12 PM
|
#114
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,413
|
My concern is breakthrough infections that turn into Long Covid. This article describes a fully vaccinated nurse who contracted Covid and now has Long Covid.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...k0cI4m4vDZjEYc
She belongs to one of the support groups and felt it was important to share her story.
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 05:28 PM
|
#115
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,241
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Another Reader
My concern is breakthrough infections that turn into Long Covid. This article describes a fully vaccinated nurse who contracted Covid and now has Long Covid.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...k0cI4m4vDZjEYc
She belongs to one of the support groups and felt it was important to share her story.
|
I see. Well- at some point you have to live life.There are lots of sad stories out there, but also lots of wonderful ones as well.
Life is not and will never be 100 percent safe. The virus will never be eliminated. From what I understand the virus from the 1918 pandemic is still floating around.
Anything can happen to any one of us at any given time. Sometimes it's something you never even expected. For example, you don't get COVID but you are diagnosed with stage 4 cancer or you get into a fatal car accident.
Some people get COVID and it's nothing more than a cold or flu or don't even know they had it at all. Some people get it and it is severe. Some pass from it due to age or co morbidities. My uncle is 90 and has COPD and got it while he was in the hospital for something else! He is now doing great. My friend's mom- also 90- contracted it in a nursing home where people were dying all around her and for her it was nothing more than a cold. I had cousins in NY who had it and for a couple of them it was a bad flu, for another he was hospitalized but is doing fine now. His wife- who had terminal cancer- passed from it.
The thing is it's your personal choice how to live your life. If you are that afraid, maybe you should stay in- I don't know. I am not afraid of the virus. Maybe I should be, but I am more afraid of wasting my good remaining years being afraid.
I guess that is why I love our state motto: Live Free or Die- Death is Not the Worst of Evils.
|
|
|
06-18-2021, 06:07 PM
|
#116
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Ft Lauderdale
Posts: 165
|
Two weeks after my second Pfizer shot I ditched my mask. Oh I keep one in the car just in case some place requires it, but for the most part, things are back to normal for me. I actually bought tickets to a concert and Broadway show. Something I miss doing.
I see most people here in South Florida are still wearing masks in the supermarkets. The thing is no one who is unmasked wears a sign on their forehead saying whether they are vaccinated or not. I'm not concerned. Even if I am in that 5% that can get "breakthrough" COVID, I am never near anyone long enough to get a viral load that's enough to get me sick. Passing someone in an aisle is unlikely going to get you COVID, even if unvaccinated. In addition, studies show that even those who are in the 5% breakthroughs are virtually 100% protected against getting a bad case requiring hospitalization.
Getting vaccinated feels quite liberating. I just can't understand those who are hesitant or outright refuse to get vaccinated. A health and fitness addict friend of mine spent 5 days in the hospital on oxygen who thought his own immune system would protect him. He thought wrong.
|
|
|
06-19-2021, 09:34 AM
|
#117
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,708
|
Thanks for an interesting discussion, brought to a premature close because of another pointless debate questioning COVID. Multiple posts were deleted.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|