BA.2 variant - new study suggests severity concerns

[marko]

I haven't read every one of the 80 responses here but I worry that "cases" isn't a good metric at this point.

I think 'hospitalizations' and 'deaths' --vaccinated and unvaccinated--would be more relevant and helpful.

You could have been a 'case' and have had no symptoms or discomfort at all, so what's the point?

Who knows? but back in the old days when we had the regular flu, the 'cases' could've been astronomical but you spent the day in bed and went back to work the next day.

Now, I think there's some mental association with a case and deaths which at this point isn't necessarily true.

Just my two cents.

[jldavid47]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko I haven't read every one of the 80 responses here but I worry that "cases" isn't a good metric at this point. I think 'hospitalizations' and 'deaths' --vaccinated and unvaccinated--would be more relevant and helpful. You could have been a 'case' and have had no symptoms or discomfort at all, so what's the point? Who knows? but back in the old days when we had the regular flu, the 'cases' could've been astronomical but you spent the day in bed and went back to work the next day. Now, I think there's some mental association with a case and deaths which at this point isn't necessarily true.

+1

[Scuba]

A good friend of ours was experiencing fatigue and a bit of coughing so he went to urgent care. He’s vaccinated and boosted. Apparently his blood oxygen level was low so they called an ambulance and sent him to the hospital. He has so far been administered two PCR tests, both of which came out negative. They can’t seem to come to any other diagnosis, despite the negative COVID tests. And his blood oxygen level isn’t normal yet. They haven’t said he has COVID, which would be pretty hard to justify with two negative PCR tests, but they haven’t said what he does have - his wife thinks maybe pneumonia? I recently read a report that several cases of Legionnaires Disease have been noted this year in our area, so maybe that? Hopefully he can get a diagnosis soon.

I feel sorry for them. He doesn’t feel seriously ill, but he doesn’t feel 100% either and the hospital wants to keep him as long as his blood oxygen is low. They are Canadian and are getting close to the limit of days in the US. That is causing additional stress on top of the mysterious illness and hospitalization.

[RetMD21]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider Covid as we experienced last year and the year before is basically over barring some new strain (As opposed to Variant) and should be of no concern for folks like me.

Everybody has an opinion but the record on predictions has been pretty poor. Some doctors have been predicting the end for a long time.

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iusta …Viruses can only survive forever if they don’t kill huge numbers of hosts.

Almost. I would suggest a more accurate phrase to be: “Viruses can only survive forever if the don’t kill huge percentages of hosts.”

The almost million deaths in the United States is a huge number, but a small percentage.

[Scuba]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scuba A good friend of ours was experiencing fatigue and a bit of coughing so he went to urgent care. He’s vaccinated and boosted. Apparently his blood oxygen level was low so they called an ambulance and sent him to the hospital. He has so far been administered two PCR tests, both of which came out negative. They can’t seem to come to any other diagnosis, despite the negative COVID tests. And his blood oxygen level isn’t normal yet. They haven’t said he has COVID, which would be pretty hard to justify with two negative PCR tests, but they haven’t said what he does have - his wife thinks maybe pneumonia? I recently read a report that several cases of Legionnaires Disease have been noted this year in our area, so maybe that? Hopefully he can get a diagnosis soon. I feel sorry for them. He doesn’t feel seriously ill, but he doesn’t feel 100% either and the hospital wants to keep him as long as his blood oxygen is low. They are Canadian and are getting close to the limit of days in the US. That is causing additional stress on top of the mysterious illness and hospitalization.

Update - our friend is still in the hospital, still has blood oxygen levels in the 80’s, has tested negative for COVID with two PCR tests administered by the hospital, and now they’re giving him a THIRD PCR test. They can’t seem to focus on any possible reason for his low oxygen levels other than COVID, even though he keeps testing negative. Scary!

[skipro33]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scuba Update - our friend is still in the hospital, still has blood oxygen levels in the 80’s, has tested negative for COVID with two PCR tests administered by the hospital, and now they’re giving him a THIRD PCR test. They can’t seem to focus on any possible reason for his low oxygen levels other than COVID, even though he keeps testing negative. Scary!

I'm sure they checked his RBC, but ask if they verified if the red blood cells are mature or immature. Immature red blood cells can't catty oxygen to the body. COVID variant attacks immature red blood cells, causing bone marrow to create and more push immature cells into the bloodstream. As more immature cells are killed by the virus, the bone marrow will work overtime to flood the blood with immature cells. A mature red blood cell lives about 120 days, so the longer this virus continues to attack, the more the patient has more immature red blood cells. Immature Red blood cells do not carry oxygen to the body, resulting in a low oxygen saturation.

[accountingsucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scuba A good friend of ours was experiencing fatigue and a bit of coughing so he went to urgent care. He’s vaccinated and boosted. Apparently his blood oxygen level was low so they called an ambulance and sent him to the hospital. He has so far been administered two PCR tests, both of which came out negative. They can’t seem to come to any other diagnosis, despite the negative COVID tests. And his blood oxygen level isn’t normal yet. They haven’t said he has COVID, which would be pretty hard to justify with two negative PCR tests, but they haven’t said what he does have - his wife thinks maybe pneumonia? I recently read a report that several cases of Legionnaires Disease have been noted this year in our area, so maybe that? Hopefully he can get a diagnosis soon. I feel sorry for them. He doesn’t feel seriously ill, but he doesn’t feel 100% either and the hospital wants to keep him as long as his blood oxygen is low. They are Canadian and are getting close to the limit of days in the US. That is causing additional stress on top of the mysterious illness and hospitalization.

I wouldn't worry about that limit, it has no real world implications on the Canadian side. I know many that had to stay longer than allowed and nothing ever happened regarding health care being cut off in Canada and for tax purposes there is no impact - that is a common misconception. Tax treaty remains in place no matter how long you stay. Not sure about US implications though, I do know someone that between a six month stay and other trips down to Arizona is over the 180 days and he has had no issues at border

[Another Reader]

The virus does not respond to a PCR test if it is not present where the sample is taken. It may not currently be in the throat. It's a bit early for IGG testing, but he could have IGM antibodies. I know a case of an immunosuppressed patient that did not test positive with a throat swab, but when they scoped the lungs, the test was positive. Treated with RDV at the time and recovered.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by accountingsucks I wouldn't worry about that limit, it has no real world implications on the Canadian side. I know many that had to stay longer than allowed and nothing ever happened regarding health care being cut off in Canada and for tax purposes there is no impact - that is a common misconception. Tax treaty remains in place no matter how long you stay. Not sure about US implications though, I do know someone that between a six month stay and other trips down to Arizona is over the 180 days and he has had no issues at border

A Canadian would not have issues at the border, people are allowed to visit longer than 180 days

As I understand it, staying over 180 days does mean the Canadian can be taxed as a US resident, and is no longer technically a Canadian resident for tax purposes.
Of course, like most tax issues, it's up to the person to file the tax returns correctly.
If something triggers the authorities to check, and they find the person didn't file the needed tax returns, then penalties happen.
If no one checks, the person can skate by free.

[Scuba]

His wife says she was told that if she overstays her days, she could be disallowed from returning to the US for up to two years, so she’s flying back to Canada for a short stay and then returning to the US. She says that resets the clock so to speak.

Her husband is still in the hospital. Third PCR test also negative. They’re having a lung specialist try to diagnose him. Hopefully soon.

[disneysteve]

For our hospital system, the number of COVID patients bottomed out on 3/31 at 13. As of yesterday, it had climbed to 25, so about doubled in a week which is concerning. The state transmission rate, which had been well under 1.0 is now back to 1.13, also concerning. And in the past few days, I've seen numerous positive results in urgent care after not seeing any for a few weeks. So it would appear that BA.2 is making itself known here. Hopefully this round won't be nearly as bad as the last round.

[2HOTinPHX]

Quote:

Originally Posted by disneysteve For our hospital system, the number of COVID patients bottomed out on 3/31 at 13. As of yesterday, it had climbed to 25, so about doubled in a week which is concerning. The state transmission rate, which had been well under 1.0 is now back to 1.13, also concerning. And in the past few days, I've seen numerous positive results in urgent care after not seeing any for a few weeks. So it would appear that BA.2 is making itself known here. Hopefully this round won't be nearly as bad as the last round.

Are you still seeing increases?

Seems we have very little masking going on in Phoenix now. At least my Dr office is still requiring mask. That was comforting. My Dr was very surprised I hadn't caught Covid yet. He said he is seeing more patients who already had it. I was fortunate to work from home except for a few office visits the past two years. That has changed we are in office every Tuesday. Besides myself I only saw two others wearing a mask now....

I have heard mask are less effective against the latest variant?

Seems like after two years of sheltering in place doomed to get it now?

[Another Reader]

Quote:

Originally Posted by disneysteve For our hospital system, the number of COVID patients bottomed out on 3/31 at 13. As of yesterday, it had climbed to 25, so about doubled in a week which is concerning. The state transmission rate, which had been well under 1.0 is now back to 1.13, also concerning. And in the past few days, I've seen numerous positive results in urgent care after not seeing any for a few weeks. So it would appear that BA.2 is making itself known here. Hopefully this round won't be nearly as bad as the last round.

Boots on the ground often beats other sources of information. I pay attention to some of the doctors on Twitter that work in ER settings. Their observations are generally reflective of reality. I appreciate Steve's reports from the field for that reason.

[Time2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by disneysteve So it would appear that BA.2 is making itself known here. Hopefully this round won't be nearly as bad as the last round.

The sub variants of BA.2 are also showing. BA.2.12 and BA2.12.1.
https://www.health.ny.gov/press/rele...3_covid-19.htm


ARRGH!!!!!

[disneysteve]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDPascale Are you still seeing increases?

I just checked. Hospitalized patients dropped from 25 on 4/7 to 15 on 4/13 and then 18 yesterday so up and down.


We are definitely seeing more cases in urgent care. My first 3 patients yesterday were COVID, Flu, COVID. Flu is pretty active here too. Seeing 2-4 of those a day along with 2-3 COVIDs.

[pacergal]

As always, good quality masking, vaccines, will significantly decrease your risk.

I avoided getting "flu" for years while working in healthcare with annual vaccines, good hand washing, and masking up when seeing patients with symptoms.
Hoping the same now, with Covid. No longer working, but try to avoid crowds when out and about.
I don't feel it's inevitable that I get it, if I protect myself as best I can.

Numbers here are increasing, so far not hospitalization. But we'll see in a few weeks.

[disneysteve]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pacergal As always, good quality masking, vaccines, will significantly decrease your risk. I avoided getting "flu" for years while working in healthcare with annual vaccines, good hand washing, and masking up when seeing patients with symptoms.

During the early days of COVID, many of my coworkers came down with it. I didn't and I firmly believe that is at least in part due to the fact that I was already wearing a mask when seeing any patients with potential flu symptoms even before we knew COVID existed.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDPascale ...That has changed we are in office every Tuesday. Besides myself I only saw two others wearing a mask now.... I have heard mask are less effective against the latest variant? ....

I believe masks are just as effective against the latest variants, but I also know lots of folks are ditching their masks or getting a lot more casual about wearing them. Do they want to admit they got from not wearing as mask or just say the mask didn't work.

The virus size has probably not changed and that is how masks work by literally filtering out the virus.

I'll wear mine going into stores, etc. But not when I visit friends who also wear their masks (I believe) in stores.

Someday I may catch it. Maybe from a friend, or a day of sloppy wearing of the mask. I'll never really know how I got it.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDPascale I have heard mask are less effective against the latest variant?

Which raises the question, what type of mask? There are plenty of less effective masks being worn every day both in terms of the materials used and the fit.

FWIW, when I wear a mask I wear an N95 mask that I found fits me very snugly with very little, if any, leakage. I challenge the latest variant to get past it.