Correlation of COVID -19 Restrictions and Deaths

[timo2]

This article showed up that lists the States by the number of COVID-19 related restrictions. At the end is a little chart comparing the restrictions to the death rate in each State, which was interesting to me.

"All states have at least partially reopened after keeping non-essential businesses closed for months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some states have recently chosen to pause their reopening processes due to spikes in the disease. In order to determine the states with the fewest coronavirus restrictions, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 18 key metrics. Our data set ranges from whether child-care programs and restaurants have reopened to whether the state has required face masks in public and workplace temperature screenings. Read on for the state ranking, additional insight from a panel of experts and a full description of our methodology."


https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818/#main-findings

 

[SecondCor521]

It sure looks like there is little to no correlation between restrictions and death rates. I note that the axes here are both rankings and not absolute measures (so rank 23 and rank 24 are only one unit apart even though the death rate could be 2% apart or 50% apart). Interesting. Thanks.

 

[Chuckanut]

It sure looks like there is little to no correlation between restrictions and death rates. I note that the axes here are both rankings and not absolute measures (so rank 23 and rank 24 are only one unit apart even though the death rate could be 2% apart or 50% apart). Interesting. Thanks.

There are a lot of confounders out there. One is the level of public cooperation. In my area people are wearing masks everywhere even in situations where it is NOT mandatory. In other areas, people mock the entire idea of wearing a mask and make a point of doing the opposite of what is ordered.

We also need to see what the long-term and final figures are when this CV thing is ended one way or another. Who knows, masks may be vindicated or Sweden may end up suffering less than anybody. Maybe the mask industry may go into the dump along with other ineffective treatments for disease.

I figure at most 10% of the people have a legitimate reason to not wear a mask as ordered by the Guv. So, if I wander into a business and see more than 1 out of 10 people not wearing a mask, I wander out ASAP. They can keep their beliefs and I will keep my money. In reality, most get my money because compliance is very good in my area.

 

[ERD50]

There are a lot of confounders out there.
.... So, if I wander into a business and see more than 1 out of 10 people not wearing a mask, I wander out ASAP. ...

I would think population density would be a big factor also.

If I see someone in a retail place w/o a mask, I don't get too excited. I'd just keep some extra distance if it bothered me. If they apporached me, especially if they were talking loud, I'd likely do something, but otherwise, every extra foot of distance adds a lot of protection, mask or no mask.

-ERD50

 

[Red Badger]

I would think population density would be a big factor also.

If I see someone in a retail place w/o a mask, I don't get too excited. I'd just keep some extra distance if it bothered me. If they apporached me, especially if they were talking loud, I'd likely do something, but otherwise, every extra foot of distance adds a lot of protection, mask or no mask.

-ERD50

Actually, ND and NE are both high death rate (and low restriction). The high death rate is simply because the denominator is small.

Ditto on the no-mask situation.

Another variable - - - the CDC includes all Pneumonia, Influenza and Covid deaths in their tally. Acronym is PIC.

 

[audreyh1]

It sure looks like there is little to no correlation between restrictions and death rates. I note that the axes here are both rankings and not absolute measures (so rank 23 and rank 24 are only one unit apart even though the death rate could be 2% apart or 50% apart). Interesting. Thanks.

It’s not just retrications/mandates. I think it has a lot to do with the socioeconomic situation/demographics in various states, as well as the willingness in general of people in a given state to cooperate with their public health departments or even to take the virus seriously. Also a big factor is whether a given state experienced an early nasty outbreak. Those states have opened up more slowly, and people have been more willing to cooperate.

 

[ERD50]

Actually, ND and NE are both high death rate (and low restriction). The high death rate is simply because the denominator is small.

Ditto on the no-mask situation.

Another variable - - - the CDC includes all Pneumonia, Influenza and Covid deaths in their tally. Acronym is PIC.

Not following you. Isn't the denominator the thing that equalizes comparisons of ratios?

NE and ND death rates/Million population are ~ 1/3rd ~ 1/4th the US average. The top 4 states are about 3x~4x the US average (NJ,NY,CT,MA).

Yes, even the "COVID Deaths" are of questionable value, some of these are people who likely would have died within a week or a month with or w/o COVID.

Which reminds me, is there a good source for history and recent "all cause deaths"? That would be interesting as reduced traffic and reduced infections in general should be offsetting to some degree?

-ERD50

 

[Clone]

And semantics matter. We follow a couple states. One in particular, always took a hit because it was not mandated that the schools be closed. Yet- all of the colleges shut down mid -March, and K-12 did the same. But because they did this because of a decision by the board of regents rather than a decree from the governor, several of the 'ranking' sites claimed that the state was refusing to close the schools.

This is one example of where the metric may not be correlated to the intended result, because it is not measuring the correct variables. But it is easier to measure simple things(a yes/no mandate from the governor) than it is to measure complex things (are people wearing masks and maintaining distance).

 

[audreyh1]

Not following you. Isn't the denominator the thing that equalizes comparisons of ratios?

NE and ND death rates/Million population are ~ 1/3rd ~ 1/4th the US average. The top 4 states are about 3x~4x the US average (NJ,NY,CT,MA).

Yes, even the "COVID Deaths" are of questionable value, some of these are people who likely would have died within a week or a month with or w/o COVID.

Which reminds me, is there a good source for history and recent "all cause deaths"? That would be interesting as reduced traffic and reduced infections in general should be offsetting to some degree?

-ERD50

There have been excess deaths (as compared to prior recent years) in the US even beyond the official COVID-19 death counts, indicating that COVID-19 deaths are still undercounted. So even if other cause deaths were reduced, they were more than made up for by COVID-19 deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

Question Did more all-cause deaths occur during the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States compared with the same months during previous years?

Findings In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.

Meaning Official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states.

 

[Nemo2]

Didn't know where else to put this.....personal experiences of a Brit (You Tube travel vid maker) in his 40s hospitalized in Serbia:

 

[jim584672]

The guy in that video, he says he has "friends in Russia" to get him into an ICU in Serbia. Sure sounds like a spy to me.

 

[Nemo2]

The guy in that video, he says he has "friends in Russia" to get him into an ICU in Serbia. Sure sounds like a spy to me.

Of course....the Russians have long wanted to obtain the recipe for Ćevapi.

 

[Sunset]

He mentioned a big motivation to wear a mask for men, if you get Covid-19 there is no morning glory for a long time... if it ever returns

 

[jim584672]

What kind of person goes to Serbia on vacation? Russian spies.

 

[Chuckanut]

What kind of person goes to Serbia on vacation?

You need to travel in that part of the world and check out the women.

Back to the topic.... I look forward to seeing the various statistical comparisons done when the world is through this pandemic or at least has everything in place to properly evaluate what happened. Hopefully, the statistics will include figures on non-Covid illnesses and death rates also. There's a lot of speculation going on, some goofy, some wishful, and some thoughtful. But, as somebody once said - "The game isn't over until it's over".

 

[MRG]

What kind of person goes to Serbia on vacation? Russian spys.

Someone who wants to go to Serbia? I've known a few well traveled folks who said it's an interesting place. I don't think they're spies.

 

[jim584672]

Someone who wants to go to Serbia? I've known a few well traveled folks who said it's an interesting place. I don't think they're spies.

But you don't know for sure.