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Old 09-14-2021, 05:57 AM   #21
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Many think COVID-19 will become endemic. It doesn’t help that animals get it too.

But that doesn’t mean that it might not go down to very low levels where it is less of an inconvenience, but it could still take a while to get there.

The article linked above by Gottlieb discusses some of these issues. Here is a recent article by Ed Yong that seemed like a balanced outlook:

HOW THE PANDEMIC NOW ENDS
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndgame/619726/
Interesting article. There are some rays of hope in it, but my pessimistic take-away is that at best, we're stuck with the virus and will need to add it to our list of things which are trying to kill us - and will continue to do so. It's not likely we'll back to our old FIRE lifestyles for quite some time - if ever.

I think what bothers me most is we've allowed the virus to divide us politically. That didn't happen with polio as far as I know. The country united around a prevention and, difficult and expensive as it was, we got it done. Now, we're divided into camps around masks, vaccines, social distancing, etc. Not how I envisioned spending my retirement years. Still life goes on (until it doesn't) so YMMV.
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Old 09-14-2021, 06:12 AM   #22
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<mod note> This is not the thread to engage in a public policy debate. Let’s please keep the discussion focused on the OP’s questions.
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Old 09-14-2021, 06:19 AM   #23
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As of today, New York is requiring proof of vaccination for congregate settings like restaurants, etc. Italy has done the same and it seems folks feel much better or safer going out.
And I heard that some European countries just threw in the towel on strict proof of vaccination, lol! If this wasn't so serious, some of these moves seem comical. But really, who would implement a vaccine proof movement limitation when it's clear that vaccinated people spread as much as non-vaccinated?

I think it ends in a surprising way. We "all" get it. Most of us (vaccinated) don't go to the doctor. Then one day we wake up and the hospital numbers are way down. That might not happen for a year or two, but my unscientific gut feel suggests that's how it will peter out.

In the meantime, I'm keeping my vitamin D level up, as well as zinc, and going about my business as normally as possible. If I get it, that's good...if we're all going to get it, might as well get it over with. I'd rather get it when the hospital was less full. Maybe after a booster, since that takes the edge off the symptoms even more than just being vaccinated.
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Old 09-14-2021, 06:31 AM   #24
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Hasn't Amsterdam lifted all restrictions? What did they do right (Rhetorical)?

So it should end at some point, or at least become endemic. I think if I remember correctly, they said they would implement restrictions again if needed.
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Old 09-14-2021, 06:52 AM   #25
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I'm doubtful that it will end one day. 40 years ago when I was young and an optimist, would have said I believe in people power, putting our hearts and souls together to end this thing. But not so optimistic anymore.

As long as we can stay at the level of me able to go out and get a haircut I can live with the requirements. Not getting a cut for about 14 months was brutal.

Oh yeah, and keep those toilet paper supplies going .
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Old 09-14-2021, 06:56 AM   #26
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I think it ends in a surprising way. We "all" get it. Most of us (vaccinated) don't go to the doctor. Then one day we wake up and the hospital numbers are way down. That might not happen for a year or two, but my unscientific gut feel suggests that's how it will peter out.
Based on some data it appears most of us already "have it"
Examples:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID...D-19-Data.aspx
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2784013
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Old 09-14-2021, 07:04 AM   #27
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And I heard that some European countries just threw in the towel on strict proof of vaccination, lol! If this wasn't so serious, some of these moves seem comical. But really, who would implement a vaccine proof movement limitation when it's clear that vaccinated people spread as much as non-vaccinated?
You’ve made the statement before that the vaccinated spread COVID just as much as unvaccinated, and it’s simply not true. Vaccinated are much less likely to become infected with delta, if they do become infected they shed virus for a much shorter time, and according to Israeli data generally only spread to one person outside their household. This is a huge difference.
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Old 09-14-2021, 07:11 AM   #28
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I like to thank every one for contributing to this discussion. It seems just like in life the end of Covid is hard to predict. The best and easiest thing is to just continue with my personal protective measures and avoid large crowds. The one thing that I can not avoid is an occasional fly trip to see my mother in Mexico. It is either a 4 hour flight or 40 hours if I drive.
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Old 10-15-2021, 09:25 PM   #29
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New Normal

When do you return to live your life?
Is it when positivity rate is at a certain level?


Me: I've already traveled, enjoyed cruises, doing marathons (ok, I just do half --- like Penny's line in Big Bang Theory (run tell im tired then have a #bearclaw# only i have a latte), go to restaurants / music in the park / Fleet Week last weekend.
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Old 10-18-2021, 10:49 PM   #30
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I had to go into the hospital lab today. It was empty. No one in ER. Granddaughter called for an appointment and one was available at 11. The crunch is over. ICUs have plenty of beds. It's weird. Positivity rate is 2% but I guess they're asymptomatic
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Old 10-19-2021, 05:34 AM   #31
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You know I am really not sure what life going forward is going to be. I kind enjoy been left alone to my thoughts. Prior to Covid my work was 80-90% in the lab just the instruments and samples, the other 10% was interacting with people. I never really felt comfortable with large crows so keeping away is easy.



I am sure that if you asked this question to my wife her view point is totally different than mine.
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Old 10-19-2021, 05:54 AM   #32
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I had some ideas or plans on what my future was suppose to be. But Covid came along to really destroy my plans or ideas, I am left wondering weather it would ever go away or decrease to a very low level. I have some bad medical issues that getting Covid the out come might not be good for me.


If you think that we just need to learn to live with it, do you have a list of what you would consider acceptable to do under those circumstances


Yes, I am struggling with this and really fed up with Covid and everything else!
I had a couple of predictions before of "when it would end", but they did not come to be, so take this new prediction with a grain of salt.

I predict that once the "oral treatment pill" for Covid (ie such as the one from Merck that is currently in the approval process) is approved and available via corner drugstores with a prescription, then the government will back off on the scary Covid messaging that has been occurring for the last 18 months.

The reason that I say this is that the oral treatment will be a major tool to protect the health care system from getting overrun. From what I have seen, that is what seems to be driving much of the government response on this.

Now given that I have said that, there will be a subset of the population that will always think that Covid will continue to be a big issue going forward. <mod edit> It may take a while for the influence of the Covid folks to diminish to the levels of these other groups.

Just my 2 cent prediction.

-gauss
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Old 10-19-2021, 06:00 AM   #33
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Gauss,


We in the family do not is a scaring messaging since we lost 5 relatives to Covid. Last week, the wife lost her uncle and wife to this virus.


I am sure there folks that believe otherwise but it is what it is!
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:03 AM   #34
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We've now flown twice, since May, both times to Fort Lauderdale. But we ate at outdoor settings while down there (as we do back at home). I miss our annual cruise, but for now we are not comfortable doing that. We have booked seats for 2 Broadway plays in late Match and April 2022. We got orchestra seats, on the aisle; yes I know we're still in a theater, but I feel a bit better at least having that open aisle next to us.
Baby steps.....
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:06 AM   #35
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Every month more papers are published showing this is a persistent virus. People with overt long term symptoms (Long Covid) are likely carrying the virus in their tissues, similar to Ebola. If this is correct, the virus will kill some, but others will survive. Some carriers will be asymptomatic. Eventually the virus will spill out in a mutated form and spread again. The virus is not going away completely any time soon.
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:23 AM   #36
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Gauss,


We in the family do not is a scaring messaging since we lost 5 relatives to Covid. Last week, the wife lost her uncle and wife to this virus.


I am sure there folks that believe otherwise but it is what it is!
I am sorry to hear that. My DM caught Covid for the first time back in August of this year. She picked it up in the health care system after having a voluntary knee replacement surgery (7 days after being transferred from hospital to Rehab/ sub-acute facility as is often done post knee surgery).

A couple months later, she is not doing well and I have been in round-the-clock caregiving mode after she came home a month ago, after a second 17 day hospital admission Covid and blood clot in lungs. So I have been "living the dream" first hand in recent months after keeping our family free of Covid for the last year and half by doing the "right things".

That all being said, I will stick by my guns that I believe the government will stop the messaging once the oral treatment is available and this will move to the back-burner like other common causes of death and public health issues (smoking, drug abuse, obesity, lack of exercise. etc.). These things are real and the government does spend money to try to reduce them, but at the end of the day they are due to individual choices and are not going away anytime soon. I see Covid as no different once an oral treatment pill that will keep those that contract it and show symptoms from going to the hospital.
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:32 AM   #37
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If it becomes true that there is a readily available, highly effective pill one can take within 3 days of symptoms, for current and future variants, great.

But a majority of the population doesn't even have a PCP. Let alone one they can get to within 3 days of symptoms, or within 3 days of calling to ask for an appointment. Ask anyone without kids under 35 who their primary doctor is, most can't tell you, even if they have insurance. More likely you'll have people going to urgent care clinics, but only if they can afford that (or if it's subsidized).

So I'm not convinced the current treatment in testing is going to be the deal breaker that normalizes covid.

I am hopeful that if Delta is truly waning as it appears, and if we get through the winter without another huge spike (big if) and vaccinations continue to increase, particularly in children, then we might get to some degree of normalization next year. But it depends, probably, more on the virus and it's development and mutations vs. our collective response.
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:42 AM   #38
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I think if "the oral treatment" works well, and is safe, then Covid could fade. But I'm not sure it will be much of a silver bullet. Remember that one with all of the fanfare that was supposed to reduce the severity and duration of the flu? Turned out it basically did nothing, even after they convinced the FDA it worked. I'm not holding my breath on real-world effectiveness. Certainly they'll jam it through, though. And if that gives the talking head an excuse to finally yammer about something else, I'm liking it for that reason
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:03 AM   #39
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For me I am ok doing anything where is can safely distance.

So we eat out (usually outside, always distanced), travel (usually by car but starting to do air travel again) and visit with close friends and family who practice the same rules. We stay in hotels but use the low floors so as do avoid elevators. If we ride an elevator, we ride alone. I'm amazed people will want to jump into an elevator with people they done know.

We have done indoor concerts but not sure I would do theatre seating again indoors as we did earlier this year, unless I bought extra seats for buffer. Outdoors is fine.

We went to college football games last year and plan to this year.

We have never done a cruise and no plans to start now. Those seem pretty risky.

I assume everyone has covid-so maintain distance. In my opinion that is the key.
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:57 AM   #40
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The doctor who helped eradicate small pox says COVID is going nowhere.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-do...s-here-to-stay

Given the resistance to vaccines all over the world and the ability for the virus to spread among wildlife, we are going to live with COVID for a long time.
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