Covid will it ever end??

[teachme]

I think it ends in a surprising way. We "all" get it. Most of us (vaccinated) don't go to the doctor. Then one day we wake up and the hospital numbers are way down. That might not happen for a year or two, but my unscientific gut feel suggests that's how it will peter out.

Based on some data it appears most of us already "have it"
Examples:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Sero-prevalence-COVID-19-Data.aspx
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784013

 

[audreyh1]

And I heard that some European countries just threw in the towel on strict proof of vaccination, lol! If this wasn't so serious, some of these moves seem comical. But really, who would implement a vaccine proof movement limitation when it's clear that vaccinated people spread as much as non-vaccinated?

You’ve made the statement before that the vaccinated spread COVID just as much as unvaccinated, and it’s simply not true. Vaccinated are much less likely to become infected with delta, if they do become infected they shed virus for a much shorter time, and according to Israeli data generally only spread to one person outside their household. This is a huge difference.

 

[HF63]

I like to thank every one for contributing to this discussion. It seems just like in life the end of Covid is hard to predict. The best and easiest thing is to just continue with my personal protective measures and avoid large crowds. The one thing that I can not avoid is an occasional fly trip to see my mother in Mexico. It is either a 4 hour flight or 40 hours if I drive.

 

[gayl]

New Normal

When do you return to live your life?
Is it when positivity rate is at a certain level?


Me: I've already traveled, enjoyed cruises, doing marathons (ok, I just do half --- like Penny's line in Big Bang Theory (run tell im tired then have a #bearclaw# only i have a latte), go to restaurants / music in the park / Fleet Week last weekend.

 

[gayl]

I had to go into the hospital lab today. It was empty. No one in ER. Granddaughter called for an appointment and one was available at 11. The crunch is over. ICUs have plenty of beds. It's weird. Positivity rate is 2% but I guess they're asymptomatic

 

[HF63]

You know I am really not sure what life going forward is going to be. I kind enjoy been left alone to my thoughts. Prior to Covid my work was 80-90% in the lab just the instruments and samples, the other 10% was interacting with people. I never really felt comfortable with large crows so keeping away is easy.



I am sure that if you asked this question to my wife her view point is totally different than mine.

 

[gauss]

I had some ideas or plans on what my future was suppose to be. But Covid came along to really destroy my plans or ideas, I am left wondering weather it would ever go away or decrease to a very low level. I have some bad medical issues that getting Covid the out come might not be good for me.


If you think that we just need to learn to live with it, do you have a list of what you would consider acceptable to do under those circumstances


Yes, I am struggling with this and really fed up with Covid and everything else!

I had a couple of predictions before of "when it would end", but they did not come to be, so take this new prediction with a grain of salt.

I predict that once the "oral treatment pill" for Covid (ie such as the one from Merck that is currently in the approval process) is approved and available via corner drugstores with a prescription, then the government will back off on the scary Covid messaging that has been occurring for the last 18 months.

The reason that I say this is that the oral treatment will be a major tool to protect the health care system from getting overrun. From what I have seen, that is what seems to be driving much of the government response on this.

Now given that I have said that, there will be a subset of the population that will always think that Covid will continue to be a big issue going forward. <mod edit> It may take a while for the influence of the Covid folks to diminish to the levels of these other groups.

Just my 2 cent prediction.

-gauss

 

[HF63]

Gauss,


We in the family do not is a scaring messaging since we lost 5 relatives to Covid. Last week, the wife lost her uncle and wife to this virus.


I am sure there folks that believe otherwise but it is what it is!

 

[mystang52]

We've now flown twice, since May, both times to Fort Lauderdale. But we ate at outdoor settings while down there (as we do back at home). I miss our annual cruise, but for now we are not comfortable doing that. We have booked seats for 2 Broadway plays in late Match and April 2022. We got orchestra seats, on the aisle; yes I know we're still in a theater, but I feel a bit better at least having that open aisle next to us.
Baby steps.....

 

[Another Reader]

Every month more papers are published showing this is a persistent virus. People with overt long term symptoms (Long Covid) are likely carrying the virus in their tissues, similar to Ebola. If this is correct, the virus will kill some, but others will survive. Some carriers will be asymptomatic. Eventually the virus will spill out in a mutated form and spread again. The virus is not going away completely any time soon.

 

[gauss]

Gauss,


We in the family do not is a scaring messaging since we lost 5 relatives to Covid. Last week, the wife lost her uncle and wife to this virus.


I am sure there folks that believe otherwise but it is what it is!

I am sorry to hear that. My DM caught Covid for the first time back in August of this year. She picked it up in the health care system after having a voluntary knee replacement surgery (7 days after being transferred from hospital to Rehab/ sub-acute facility as is often done post knee surgery).

A couple months later, she is not doing well and I have been in round-the-clock caregiving mode after she came home a month ago, after a second 17 day hospital admission Covid and blood clot in lungs. So I have been "living the dream" first hand in recent months after keeping our family free of Covid for the last year and half by doing the "right things".

That all being said, I will stick by my guns that I believe the government will stop the messaging once the oral treatment is available and this will move to the back-burner like other common causes of death and public health issues (smoking, drug abuse, obesity, lack of exercise. etc.). These things are real and the government does spend money to try to reduce them, but at the end of the day they are due to individual choices and are not going away anytime soon. I see Covid as no different once an oral treatment pill that will keep those that contract it and show symptoms from going to the hospital.

 

[Aerides]

If it becomes true that there is a readily available, highly effective pill one can take within 3 days of symptoms, for current and future variants, great.

But a majority of the population doesn't even have a PCP. Let alone one they can get to within 3 days of symptoms, or within 3 days of calling to ask for an appointment. Ask anyone without kids under 35 who their primary doctor is, most can't tell you, even if they have insurance. More likely you'll have people going to urgent care clinics, but only if they can afford that (or if it's subsidized).

So I'm not convinced the current treatment in testing is going to be the deal breaker that normalizes covid.

I am hopeful that if Delta is truly waning as it appears, and if we get through the winter without another huge spike (big if) and vaccinations continue to increase, particularly in children, then we might get to some degree of normalization next year. But it depends, probably, more on the virus and it's development and mutations vs. our collective response.

 

[sengsational]

I think if "the oral treatment" works well, and is safe, then Covid could fade. But I'm not sure it will be much of a silver bullet. Remember that one with all of the fanfare that was supposed to reduce the severity and duration of the flu? Turned out it basically did nothing, even after they convinced the FDA it worked. I'm not holding my breath on real-world effectiveness. Certainly they'll jam it through, though. And if that gives the talking head an excuse to finally yammer about something else, I'm liking it for that reason

 

[Montecfo]

For me I am ok doing anything where is can safely distance.

So we eat out (usually outside, always distanced), travel (usually by car but starting to do air travel again) and visit with close friends and family who practice the same rules. We stay in hotels but use the low floors so as do avoid elevators. If we ride an elevator, we ride alone. I'm amazed people will want to jump into an elevator with people they done know.

We have done indoor concerts but not sure I would do theatre seating again indoors as we did earlier this year, unless I bought extra seats for buffer. Outdoors is fine.

We went to college football games last year and plan to this year.

We have never done a cruise and no plans to start now. Those seem pretty risky.

I assume everyone has covid-so maintain distance. In my opinion that is the key.

 

[Freedom56]

The doctor who helped eradicate small pox says COVID is going nowhere.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-doctor-who-eliminated-smallpox-says-covid-19-is-here-to-stay

Given the resistance to vaccines all over the world and the ability for the virus to spread among wildlife, we are going to live with COVID for a long time.

 

[pacergal]

OP--
No, I don't believe Covid will ever end, as in go away and never show up.

I believe by 2022-2023, as more of the World population is vaccinated and the disease wanes, it will become endemic like the influenza. It will take time
I am hopeful of oral meds to treat early cases, similar to Tamiflu for "flu".
I am hopeful for a yearly flu-covid vaccine to be developed to cover both.

I do what I can to protect myself and family. DH and I have been vaxed and boostered, I personally will continue to wear masks now and in the future, primarily in the colder weather and around groups. It kept me cold and illness free the past two winters, as I have asthma and respiratory viruses do me in. I wore masks in my job, so nothing new in that.
So far, the only trips we do is by driving. Hoping to plan a fly trip late next year. The reason I don't now, is I dislike wearing mask for 8-12 hours and being around hundreds of people who may or may not have been vaccinated. That is my choice, but many folks are traveling and doing/living as they did before. And that is their choice. Neither one is bad or good.
I still do online ordering because it is convenient, but don't have a problem going into stores as needed.
As a public health nurse, I am beyond frustrated and angry this has become so political. It is very sad so many have died because of it.
We all make our own choices based on the information we have/believe/understand.

Live your life, stay safe and healthy! We know how to prevent this. Mask, distance, good hand hygiene, and vaccinate if you choose too, which I hope you do. Your choice.

 

[Koolau]

Wow. This discussion could get me depressed. Think I'll go to the joke threads. YMMV

 

[jcfradio]

Total deaths, 656k. 40.1 million positive tests. 330 million folks in USA. Almost .02% of population dead, over 12% of population testing positive, sometimes counted twice. Every life is precious, but shows how unhealthy some of the afflicted were in terms of obesity and other ailments, and some were considered healthy. My county of 220,000 has 325 dead , 20,500 tests positive, some maybe twice. We are almost 70% vaccinated.

Yes, this will be very much like the flu, and will never end.

Our region in Canada has fared relatively well, about 200,000 population, 1834 cases and 6 deaths. Mask wearing and other public health compliance has been good. But, I agree, this virus will likely be endemic and we will need to be ready to live with it and its consequences including mask wearing in crowded public locations, proof of vaccination to enter higher risk environments, periodic vaccinations and even localized actions when an outbreak does occur.

 

[disneysteve]

I had to go into the hospital lab today. It was empty. No one in ER. Granddaughter called for an appointment and one was available at 11. The crunch is over.

Glad to hear there are places where this is the case but understand that much of the country is still overwhelmed. I'm in NJ and ERs are still packed. Our urgent cares are absolutely swamped, seeing record numbers every day.


Administration just recently gave us permission to cut off registering patients when the volume is simply too high for us to see any more patients each day. I never thought I'd see the day when they let us turn people away like that but there really was no other choice. We close at 9pm. If it's 7pm and there are still 12 people waiting to be seen, we can stop accepting patients for the day. Anybody who comes in after that is told we've reached capacity and we offer to schedule them for the following day.


I keep hoping it will slow down but so far there's absolutely no sign of that happening, and we still have flu season ahead of us which is just going to make it even worse.

 

[Montecfo]

Glad to hear there are places where this is the case but understand that much of the country is still overwhelmed. I'm in NJ and ERs are still packed. Our urgent cares are absolutely swamped, seeing record numbers every day.


Administration just recently gave us permission to cut off registering patients when the volume is simply too high for us to see any more patients each day. I never thought I'd see the day when they let us turn people away like that but there really was no other choice. We close at 9pm. If it's 7pm and there are still 12 people waiting to be seen, we can stop accepting patients for the day. Anybody who comes in after that is told we've reached capacity and we offer to schedule them for the following day.


I keep hoping it will slow down but so far there's absolutely no sign of that happening, and we still have flu season ahead of us which is just going to make it even worse.

Hi Disneysteve,

I know you are on the front lines, but your local experience does not appear to be typical for the state of NJ or the country at large. Cases are declining in NJ, and transmission rates under 1.0. So things appear to be heading in the right direction in NJ, though I recognize there may be localities where cases continue to rise.

I would expect flu season to be milder than usual since we are distancing and wearing masks due to Covid. Not that it is not a concern but Covid precautions will tend to have similar protective effects for flu, from everything I have read.

Flu last year was visually non existent in the US and globally according to the CDC for these same reasons.

 

[Koolau]

Hi Disneysteve,

I know you are on the front lines, but your local experience does not appear to be typical for the state of NJ or the country at large. Cases are declining in NJ, and transmission rates under 1.0. So things appear to be heading in the right direction in NJ, though I recognize there may be localities where cases continue to rise.

I would expect flu season to be milder than usual since we are distancing and wearing masks due to Covid. Not that it is not a concern but Covid precautions will tend to have similar protective effects for flu, from everything I have read.

Flu last year was visually non existent in the US and globally according to the CDC for these same reasons.

I guess every dark cloud has a silver lining. Still, it's a high price to pay to prevent illness. I just keep hoping Covid will just go away. Probably not for a long time. YMMV

 

[disneysteve]

Hi Disneysteve,

I know you are on the front lines, but your local experience does not appear to be typical for the state of NJ or the country at large. Cases are declining in NJ, and transmission rates under 1.0. So things appear to be heading in the right direction in NJ, though I recognize there may be localities where cases continue to rise.

I would expect flu season to be milder than usual since we are distancing and wearing masks due to Covid. Not that it is not a concern but Covid precautions will tend to have similar protective effects for flu, from everything I have read.

Flu last year was visually non existent in the US and globally according to the CDC for these same reasons.

I'm not saying every patient making up those record volumes has COVID, but the volume is definitely because of COVID. In the past, if someone had a cold or their allergies were acting up, they'd take some OTC medicine and go on with their life. Today you can't really do that. If you're sick, you need to rule out COVID. Many employers and schools require a negative COVID test before you can return. And you need to know if you have it so that you can quarantine if you do.


I think we saw 75 patients on Monday. 40 of them were there for COVID symptoms and testing. If COVID didn't exist, we probably wouldn't have seen at least half of those 40.


I hope you're right about flu season this year. It will be worse than last year because stuff was still shut down then and mask mandates were still in place. Now, masks are optional most places and things have pretty fully reopened. Schools aren't remote anymore. Large indoor gatherings are back. People are back in gyms and theaters and sporting events. People will be getting together with family and friends for the holidays. That stuff wasn't true last year for the most part. And again, anybody who does get sick will be coming in for COVID testing. I don't think the average person realizes how much this continues to overwhelm the healthcare system.


I'm just grateful that as of 12/1 I will be dropping to part time so I won't have to deal with it quite as much.

 

[disneysteve]

I guess every dark cloud has a silver lining. Still, it's a high price to pay to prevent illness.

The pandemic was certainly a high price to pay but if the outcome is that people realize wearing a mask in public is a good thing, at least something positive will have come out of it. I hope this whole experience normalizes mask wearing, at least during cold and flu season. It's been the norm for years in Asia. It would be nice for it to become commonplace here.

 

[pacergal]

The pandemic was certainly a high price to pay but if the outcome is that people realize wearing a mask in public is a good thing, at least something positive will have come out of it. I hope this whole experience normalizes mask wearing, at least during cold and flu season. It's been the norm for years in Asia. It would be nice for it to become commonplace here.

Amen to that.

 

[Montecfo]

I'm not saying every patient making up those record volumes has COVID, but the volume is definitely because of COVID. In the past, if someone had a cold or their allergies were acting up, they'd take some OTC medicine and go on with their life. Today you can't really do that. If you're sick, you need to rule out COVID. Many employers and schools require a negative COVID test before you can return. And you need to know if you have it so that you can quarantine if you do.


I think we saw 75 patients on Monday. 40 of them were there for COVID symptoms and testing. If COVID didn't exist, we probably wouldn't have seen at least half of those 40.


I hope you're right about flu season this year. It will be worse than last year because stuff was still shut down then and mask mandates were still in place. Now, masks are optional most places and things have pretty fully reopened. Schools aren't remote anymore. Large indoor gatherings are back. People are back in gyms and theaters and sporting events. People will be getting together with family and friends for the holidays. That stuff wasn't true last year for the most part. And again, anybody who does get sick will be coming in for COVID testing. I don't think the average person realizes how much this continues to overwhelm the healthcare system.


I'm just grateful that as of 12/1 I will be dropping to part time so I won't have to deal with it quite as much.

I do not doubt any of that as your local experience.

Flu positivity rate was lowest since they began keeping records last year. My expectations are per the CDC. Not sure flu is a big concern for most folks. If it is, then Covid is a bigger concern and they are taking precautions or should be.

If our area you need not go to hospitals or doctor offices for Covid tests. They are usually done at pharmacies (drive through) or labs. You can also buy at home tests from the pharmacies. I do not see hospitals and doctor offices becoming overwhelmed if cases tick up but that could vary by location.

Merck's Covid treatment (pill based) will provide further options for treatment if it becomes available around first of the year as I have read it may.

There seems to be a lot of positive in the big picture though obviously there are plenty of local areas that continue to be stressed by large numbers of cases.