Delta variant can infect families from exposed children, even vaccinated adults.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo Walensky calls breakthrough infections "rare", which is the point I made. The Delta variant is overwhelmingly an issue for the unvaxxed. That is what the data show. Personally, I maintain distance from people for whom vax status is not known by me, even though we are fully vaxxed. We have known the vax does not prevent illness since the start. Who wants to get sick?

I really don’t believe the language “rare”. I expect hospitalized breakthrough infections are rare. But some states and counties are tracking all breakthrough infections and I saw a graph from LA county that showed by June breakthrough infections had risen to 20% of total infections. How can that be considered “rare”?

And since the CDC stopped tracking all breakthrough infections a while back, and is now only tracking breakthrough infections resulting in hospitalization, how would they know?

I expect we’ll know more in coming weeks.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut I am confused. What constitutes a breakthrough case? In some articles I read if a person has had only one of two shots and gets Covid, it is a breakthrough case. So, is a person with two shots and who gets Covid more than 15 days after the 2nd shot. They seem to get mixed together leaving me wondering what is what. The first thing I would like to see is a list of definitions so we can easily identify those who are partially vaccinated from those who are fully vaccinated. Then perhaps something to give us an idea of age, and any comorbidities. It's one thing to discover 15 people are breakthrough cases, and 14 of the 15 are partially vaccinated, over 70 and have at least one comorbidity. That' a lot different from 8 out 15 breakthrough cases, but those eight were under 50, fully vaccinated and no comorbidities. The first situation is not very threatening to me. The second is positively scary.

It's worrisome but in your second example, but I'm interested in knowing how many of the 15 were asymptomatic, barely felt ill, went to the doctor or ended up in the hospital that concerns me more then the stats you are concerned about.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut I am confused. What constitutes a breakthrough case? In some articles I read if a person has had only one of two shots and gets Covid, it is a breakthrough case. So, is a person with two shots and who gets Covid more than 15 days after the 2nd shot. They seem to get mixed together leaving me wondering what is what.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls99 +1 I too would like to see definition and breakdown of fully vaxxed and partially vaxxed details.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby Connecticut defines "vaccinated" as having received both shots more than 14 days ago. Everyone else is counted as unvaccinated. Among the fully vaccinated in Connecticut, breakthrough infections are 0.06% (1133/2,099,870). This is an interesting report that the state sends out every Thursday with this and other details. https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Corona...ary7292021.pdf

In general in the US breakthrough infections are referenced to fully vaccinated and 2 weeks from final dose. Certainly the recent news.

Israel may use 11 days from final dose.

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 I really don’t believe the language “rare”. I expect hospitalized breakthrough infections are rare. But some states and counties are tracking all breakthrough infections and I saw a graph from LA county that showed by June breakthrough infections had risen to 20% of total infections. How can that be considered “rare”? And since the CDC stopped tracking all breakthrough infections a while back, and is now only tracking breakthrough infections resulting in hospitalization, how would they know? I expect we’ll know more in coming weeks.

I think the word "rare" is arrived at via the true denominator, which is total vaccinated people i.e., 161 million. So hospitalized 6000/161M. That qualifies as rare I think.

If you are trying to reach a conclusion about asymptomatic or mild infections, you are not going know that anytime soon since it is not tracked, and I think that is for pretty good reason: our medical powers that be find that the cost to track that exceeds the benefit.

So if at risk, take precautions. Overwhelmingly, this is not a major concern for vaccinated people. And if Dr. Scott Gottlieb is correct, we can begin worrying about something else within a few weeks.

ABC News called symptomatic breakthroughs "rare" in a story filed 3 days ago. It put the percentage at .098% of the fully vaccinated, citing some unpublished CDC documents it reviewed.

So there is that.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/symptomati...ry?id=79048589

[MichaelB]

Dr Gottleib isn’t saying there’s no need to worry. He did say he believes the current Delta variant outbreaks may begin to peak in a few weeks, based on their evolution elsewhere.

In the meantime Covid continues to evolve and mutate and has plenty of opportunity to do so among the still unvaccinated population in the US and elsewhere in the world. Will the next mutation be easier to more difficult to deal with? We now have the first solid evidence of breakthrough. We’re still on the lower end of the learning curve so there’s no way to really predict what comes next, but IMO it’s folly to let down our guard now.

Here’s an interesting article from Kaiser Heslth News (link here) titled “Unraveling the Mysterious Mutations That Make Delta the Most Transmissible Covid Virus Yet”

[Montecfo]

MichaelB,

Moral of the story is to get vaccinated and if at risk, take precautions.

I do think we can stop worrying about the Delta variant when cases begin declining. Just as we did with prior variants. I do not think people are continuing to worry about the alpha, the UK, the South African, etc.

I continue to suggest taking appropriate precautions and following data, not anecdotes (same point made in the ABC news story I linked above).

[tmm99]

Thank you for the great article, Michael!

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo I think the word "rare" is arrived at via the true denominator, which is total vaccinated people i.e., 161 million. So hospitalized 6000/161M. That qualifies as rare I think.

IMO it is not appropriate to say breakthrough cases with delta are rare when what you actually mean is that hospitalized breakthrough cases are rare.

And the CDC changed their guidance for high covid transmission areas because now they are concerned that breakthrough cases, including asymptomatic cases, can pass on the virus. If they were so “rare”, why would that even be a concern?

ETA: it looks like their new data is going to be published tomorrow.

[teetee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan I believe you are correct, they are determined not to let the virus make a comeback. We have already experienced 3 waves resulting in one of the highest death rates in the world and scientists expect a potential 3rd wave this winter. https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavir...3-planning.pdf

It is sad that the population in the US as a whole was not smart / determined enough to set the goal of virus elimination from the start. We did not even manage to suppress it. We just saw the hospitalization rate went down and went ahead to open.

The virus and math does its own thing. Many of us have mistaken minor inconvenience with violation of freedom which paved the way for the Delta /+ and other variants to happen. We as a population has a tougher battle ahead. I would say it (again), this is a fight between the covid and human intelligence (and we are losing).

The winter vaccination planning is helpful but the virus will not go away if anyone including children capable of taking the vaccine refuse to do so because the vaccinated population can no longer be the barrier to defend those without. The only difference is the vaccinated won't die from getting infected. This means more sick people with long term tissue damage before the herd immunity is achieved. Will the vaccine-resistant and more deadlier variant surface before that happens? Very likely. Highly transmissible variant we see now is paving the way for the next variant considering how short (3-10days) the viral replication cycle and high mutation rate is. By this time next year, the glycan composition on the dominant virus surface can be completely different from the Delta strain we have now.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 IMO it is not appropriate to say breakthrough cases with delta are rare when what you actually mean is that hospitalized breakthrough cases are rare. And the CDC changed their guidance for high covid transmission areas because now they are concerned that breakthrough cases, including asymptomatic cases, can pass on the virus. If they were so “rare”, why would that even be a concern?

I agree completely and in the beginning they said two vaccinated people could safely be together like "two spoons in a drawer". What I'd like to know is how many cases of Delta pass from one vaccinated person to another.


A poster here had a non vaxxed spouse and two vaccinated people test positive,.. did both cases come from the original non vaxxed person or did the vaccinated people pass it between each other.

[audreyh1]

Iceland is another example. They have 70% of the population vaccinated. Around 70% of the current infections are breakthrough cases.

https://www.covid.is/data You may have to pick English under languages - although it worked for me.

[REWahoo]

From the Washington Post: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe

The Post doesn't say how they got their hands on an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC. This presentation is why the CDC changed their mask recommendations.

From the article:

Quote:

The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox...

Quote:

[the Delta variant is] ...so contagious that it acts almost like a different novel virus, leaping from target to target more swiftly than Ebola or the common cold.

Quote:

It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated.

Quote:

...there is a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization and death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status. Another estimates that there are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.

Looks like we still have a very long way to go to get a handle on this virus.

[audreyh1]

Thanks! I was looking for that. I can’t get behind the paywall and I couldn’t find it in the Apple News app yet.

I did find a NYTimes article that seems to be breaking the same story, although it doesn’t include the above points. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/h...nsmission.html

According to the reporter

Quote:

The CDC is expected to release data on Friday showing that vaccinated people may transmit the Delta variant, a finding that prompted its new masking advice.

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 IMO it is not appropriate to say breakthrough cases with delta are rare when what you actually mean is that hospitalized breakthrough cases are rare. And the CDC changed their guidance for high covid transmission areas because now they are concerned that breakthrough cases, including asymptomatic cases, can pass on the virus. If they were so “rare”, why would that even be a concern?

I have provided my sources and attempted to be clear. We all know the CDC is not tracking asymptomatic breakthrough infections.

The CDC called symptomatic breakthrough infections "rare" as reflected in the article I linked from ABC news above. The headline was "Symptomatic Breakthrough Covid-19 Infections Rare, CDC Estimates". The symptomatic breakthrough infection rate was estimated by CDC at .098%, according to the article.

Breakthrough infections that require hospitalization are 6000/160M and they are called "rare' on the CDC website, which I linked earlier in the thread. I'm not quibbling with what they are saying.

As far as exactly why CDC changed their guidance, they have not provided any data I can find supporting this. Perhaps you have found that in your research and can share it.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Thanks! I was looking for that. I can’t get behind the paywall and I couldn’t find it in the Apple News app yet.

WaPo gives free access to Covid coverage but placed this in the "Health" category, which is apparently behind a paywall. Sorry bout that...

[tmm99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Thanks! I was looking for that. I can’t get behind the paywall and I couldn’t find it in the Apple News app yet. I did find a NYTimes article that seems to be breaking the same story, although it doesn’t include the above points. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/h...nsmission.html According to the reporter

I happened to subscribe to The Washington Post, so I can read this article, but when I don't have subscriptions to read other articles at other sites, I use my Chrome browser, go to the article link, and do "select all" and "copy" (you have to do this rather quickly (before the "subscribe to xyz" window pops up) and paste the copy into something, like a Word doc or an email or something. It loses the format, etc, but the writings are still intact. This method works most of the time...

Not that I'm suggesting you do this...

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo As far as exactly why CDC changed their guidance, they have not provided any data I can find supporting this. Perhaps you have found that in your research and can share it.

Here is a link to the paper that apparently caused the CDC to change their guidance on vaccinated people wearing masks, and the abstract from the paper:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3

Abstract

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
__________________________________________________ ______________

and here are a couple of key statements from the Discussion section:

"a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled."

"Finally, while our model formally considers only one homogenous population, our data also suggest that delays in vaccination in some countries relative to others will make the global emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain more likely. Without global coordination, vaccine resistant strains may be eliminated in some populations but could persist in others. Thus, a truly global vaccination effort may be necessary to reduce the chances of a global spread of a resistant strain."
__________________________________________________ _______

The bottom line is that we will probably all be wearing masks and doing social distancing for a very long time to come. Even if the USA could get to something like 80-90% of the population vaccinated (which is highly unlikely), the virus will continue to mutate here, and develop resistant strains which are capable of infecting everyone, including those vaccinated. And.....even worse news is that even if the USA does somehow get almost everyone vaccinated, the virus will continue to mutate and develop vaccine-resistant strains in other parts of the world, unless we have a truly global vaccination effort.

[Montecfo]

So this was all based on modelling. I thought it would be studies involving people on the real world.

Is this really all they put out?

I notice they keep calling these breakthrough infections "rare".

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo So this was all based on modelling. I thought it would be studies involving people on the real world. Is this really all they put out? I notice they keep calling these breakthrough infections "rare".

Not just modeling, no. Here is more evidence of the ability of the Delta variant to infect vaccinated people that influenced CDC:


https://www.metro.us/most-covid-19-cases-in/

[audreyh1]

I don’t think it was based on that study. There are a set of leaked CDC slides with numerous studies cited.

Washington Post shares them here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/conte...-2744e4e25f2e/

And the story/overview WAPO broke yesterday is now available to the public. A link to that is provided in the above link.