Do You Think There Will Be An Available Vaccine By The End of The Year?

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GalaxyBoy Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

I don't necessarily agree that the thread is "irrelevant". Certainly not everyone who has an opinion about this is a scientist (although there are some on the forum), but well-informed people can have opinions about topics that they are not experts in. Heck, a lot of threads on this forum would fit into that category. You are always free to disregard anyone's opinion about anything, if you choose to (or just skip the whole thread, if that is easier for you).

[Spock]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GalaxyBoy Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

Cuz the scientists don't know squat about this virus and its going to take civilian push back to stop the nonsense coming from a lot of governors and mayors. People think this is the movies where the next scene has planes dropping boxes of vaccines into far away places so that everybody and their dog can be vaccinated... so "we'll stay locked down until a vaccine is available.".

[easysurfer]

Just saw a discussion today on the morning news about talk of possible challenge trials on humans to speed up knowledge if a possible vaccine works or not.

In other words, give the person the vaccine, then give the person the virus and see what happens.

I guess desperate times calls for desperate measures .

[RobbieB]

Yeah, offer compensation of 10 grand and volunteers will line up at the door.

[rk911]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB Yeah, offer compensation of 10 grand and volunteers will line up at the door.

10-large is not nearly enough for anyone brave enough to take one step forward.

human history is replete with “...i wonder what will happen if i _______ (eat, drink, do, etc. ) this”.

[RobbieB]

Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

Mikey, might try it for free. "Mikey, he likes it". Remember that old cereal commercial? Poor Mikey.

I bet for 1 grand there'd be takers.

[RobbieB]

No doubt.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

Or offer 20 years or freedom off a life sentence criminal, to make the public calm don't offer it to serial or mass murderers.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAE Could be, but you need to have about 60-65% of the population exposed before herd immunity is approached. Latest estimate of the percentage of the U.S. population exposed so far is about 5%. So it would take a few years, minimum, to get to 60% - unless all social distancing is dropped now, in which case it wouldn't take nearly as long.

And about 1->1.5 Million dead.
Which sounded like a lot 4 months ago, but we are over 10% of the way there.

[JustCurious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rk911 10-large is not nearly enough for anyone brave enough to take one step forward.

That's funny because I have the opposite view, 10 grand is way more than is necessary. There will probably be some who would volunteer for free.

[JustCurious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GalaxyBoy Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

Google "the wisdom of crowds."

[Winemaker]

I know of no present vaccine that stops any skin disease; the lungs are teated as skin as they are exposed to ambient air at each breath. I am skeptical of a vaccine and it has been a while since I slept in a Holiday Inn Express.

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winemaker I know of no present vaccine that stops any skin disease; the lungs are teated as skin as they are exposed to ambient air at each breath. I am skeptical of a vaccine and it has been a while since I slept in a Holiday Inn Express.

But we have a very effective vaccine for Shingles (and for measles and chicken pox)and those viruses certainly affect the skin. I think there will be a Covid 19 vaccine eventually but who knows how long. In the meantime I am hoping for antivirals.

[Independent]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCurious That's funny because I have the opposite view, 10 grand is way more than is necessary. There will probably be some who would volunteer for free.

I agree. (I'd think the gov't would provide insurance in case of a bad result.) I'm sure we'd start with younger people.

I'm guessing a death rate for people aged 25-34 is about 0.5 per 1,000 infections. It's even lower for people who don't have known additional risk factors. Serious illness might be 5 per 1,000 (pure guess). That's for un-vaccinated people.

We'd be asking people to take a vaccine which is likely to be effective, then get infected with a controlled dose of virus. The reward is knowing they are advancing the fight against the disease, and being the first to get a vaccine. I think there would be takers.

----
Note: I got the 0.5 by combining https://elemental.medium.com/its-not...9-bc9251989bc8 and this https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily for May 10, and the US population by age.

I made the assumption that the number of infections is 5x the number of confirmed cases, and that all age groups are equally likely to be infected.

[kcowan]

I thought we were waiting for approval from on high?

I find flu shots to be a crap shoot for we in the target demographic. I don't take it because what works up north is unlikely to work in Mexico.

Statistically, 18 months minimum even with all the efforts and possibly some unfortunate side effects along the way.

[Independent]

Is there any value in speculating about this? (other than normal human curiousity)

I think so. I'm making decisions about how much risk I'm willing to take - how much of what I enjoy I'm willing to give up to "stay safe".

I'm 72 and my wife is 71 and a cancer survivor. If a vaccine is just around the corner, I can decide hold my breath (so to speak) until it gets here.
But, if it is 5 years away, I'll decide to go ahead an live normally and take my chance with the disease.

[Spock]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee But we have a very effective vaccine for Shingles (and for measles and chicken pox)and those viruses certainly affect the skin. I think there will be a Covid 19 vaccine eventually but who knows how long. In the meantime I am hoping for antivirals.

Virus effects on the skin are not the issue. Its the initial attack/infection site that matters. All the viruses you mention are active in the blood stream where a vaccine can get them. Corona virus attacks through the lungs, it reaches the blood stream by accident (gross over simplification).
The lungs behave more like your skin... you use hand sanitizer on your skin, not a vaccine.

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spock Virus effects on the skin are not the issue. Its the initial attack/infection site that matters. All the viruses you mention are active in the blood stream where a vaccine can get them. Corona virus attacks through the lungs, it reaches the blood stream by accident (gross over simplification). The lungs behave more like your skin... you use hand sanitizer on your skin, not a vaccine.

Pneumonia attacks the lungs and I have had vaccines against that--how does that work?

[Spock]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee Pneumonia attacks the lungs and I have had vaccines against that--how does that work?

"I'm not a doctor, but I play one on TV (the Internet)"

From what I've glanced, the pneumococcal vaccine is actually aimed at a bacteria, not a virus. And again, its not about where the symptoms appear, its about where the virus can be faught.

One note from a google medical degree is that pneumonia vaccines are incredibly over cautious unless one has severe risks. The primary way to avoid pneumonia is by getting a flu shot and other immunizations.