Fantastic Vaccine Results in US

[explanade]

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Originally Posted by Out of Steam I believe also that many of the people who have been getting vaccinated are the same ones who were making serious efforts to avoid COVID already, therefore not reducing the susceptible population by as much as we would think.

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Originally Posted by JoeWras Yes. And also a reason why there is angst about a third wave.

In states such as MI, they're seeing high case numbers among teens and young adults.

I saw an epidemiologists say high school sports was a factor driving the increase in cases there.

[jollystomper]

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Originally Posted by ivinsfan Why not just have everyone over 18 get vaccinated? Bloodwork and a DNA workup still won't prevent you from catching Covid..

It is fine to address the symptom in the short term. I am talking about getting to the root cause for the long term. This will not be the last pandemic and no reason to repeat the mistakes with better data.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by explanade In states such as MI, they're seeing high case numbers among teens and young adults. I saw an epidemiologists say high school sports was a factor driving the increase in cases there.

Likely variant B117 which spreads easily through high schoolers.

[jollystomper]

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Originally Posted by Aerides mod note: We are not going to accept continued debate on "how bad is Covid really" in this thread or any other.

I have to ask this for clarification.


There is a difference between discussing "how bad is Covid really" and discussing "Does Covid physically impact people in different ways for various reasons".


I am seeing people confuse the two. So are BOTH unacceptable?

[Amethyst]

Early days of the polio vaccine, which contained actual (killed) virus, some people got polio from a batch contaminated with live virus...so I don't blame others for skepticism back then! I would have been terrified.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/histo...n-coronavirus/

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Originally Posted by explanade I would imagine people had similar approach to the polio vaccines -- what if the cure turns out to be worse than the disease? .

[Chuckanut]

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Despite the real world 90% effectiveness of 2 doses of both the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines announced by the CDC following their study of 4,000 essential workers, CDC Director Walensky expressed today a feeling of "impending doom" due to rising caseloads in the USA. Daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, are all increasing again, despite more and more people getting vaccinated every day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/ "The recent U.S. seven-day average, at just under 60,000 daily cases, is a 10 percent increase vs. the prior seven-day period. Hospitalizations have risen, too. The seven-day average death rate, which typically lags behind cases and hospitalizations, increased by 3 percent, Walensky said."

The latest out from the CDC about 10 hours ago was that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are about 80% effective after the 1st shot and 90% effective in reducing infections after the 2nd shot.

I am not sure where this impending doom is coming from. Yes, there will be pockets of increased infections in areas that take prevention to lightly, but talk of 'doom' seems overly pessimistic.
Concern that over confidence may result in an extended time in this plateau or even another spike up is reasonable. IMO, it's prudent to warn people against dropping their guard to early. But, doom? I don't think so.

Call me a Pollyanna, but I just don't see it in the USA. My 2¢, take what you wish and leave the rest.

FWIW, here are some definitions of doom:

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doom 1. Inevitable destruction or ruin.

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death, destruction, or any very bad situation that cannot be avoided

[audreyh1]

To clarify - that is 80% better at not getting infected compared to those not vaccinated. These participants swabbed themselves weekly, so this study picked up asymptomatic infections as well. And that 80% protections was at two weeks after the first dose! Which makes me happy as I just got my first dose.

Then of course even better after fully vaccinated.

The “Impending doom”:

Well, we have a nasty variant in the US now reaching critical mass. And this variant is particularly contagious in young folks, particularly high schoolers. Schools are open, this cohort is not yet vaccinated. Until now spread has not been significant through schools other than teachers infecting each other. This variant is a game changer. I can understand why public health officials are very concerned and think it’s unavoidable. Us old fogies may be mostly protected, but that won’t stop a large surge among the middle age and younger folks. Watch what happens in Michigan.

I think this Washington Post article does a pretty good job of explaining what is happening now with all the reopenings and under 50s or so mostly unvaccinated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...c09_story.html

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Younger patients are replacing seniors in some hospitals. Troubling signals abounded Monday. Daily case counts continued their trend in the wrong direction. The seven-day rolling average of infections, which is considered the most reliable measure of daily case counts, rose for the seventh consecutive day, finishing just below 64,000, according to reports from state health departments analyzed by The Washington Post. Some hospitals reported admitting younger people with more severe disease. That is evidence that vaccines are protecting people older than 65 who once were most vulnerable but leaving the unvaccinated exposed. A new variant of the virus that is more contagious and causes more severe disease is taking hold across the country.

[Chuckanut]

One final thought on the future of Covid in the USA over the next few months.

We have been used to looking at Europe as a harbinger of what comes next. But, Europe is doing a very poor job of vaccinating its populace compared to us (except for the UK). Perhaps we should be looking at Israel as a predictor of where we will be in the next 2-3 months. As of 3/15 Israel has fully vaccinated 50% of its population and 60% have received at least one shot. (I don't know if the percentages include children under 16.)

Currently, the USA has fully vaccinated about 20% of its over 18 population and nearly 40% have had at least one shot. Most European countries are in the area of 10-12% for at least one shot and 5-6% for fully vaccinated.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-m...harp-drop-off/

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The positive test rate identifying infections tumbled to its lowest level in nearly a year, the Health Ministry said Thursday, as the country reached the milestone of immunizing over half against COVID-19. Figures released by the ministry showed the positive rate for virus tests analyzed Wednesday was just 1.3%, the lowest level since June 2020. A week ago the positive test rate was 2% and a week before that it was 3%. The numbers have continued a steep decline since January, when the positive test rate reached over 10%.

[Time2]

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Originally Posted by Out-to-Lunch Believe it or not, I think there are 5 lines on the graph. (Two green ones at the bottom.) I was curious too, but I was not able to track down the exact age groups shown.

The graph is very interactive, six categories to choose from, 3 for # of cases and 3 for # of deaths, then if you click on the age groups, it will highlight that group.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut One final thought on the future of Covid in the USA over the next few months. We have been used to looking at Europe as a harbinger of what comes next. But, Europe is doing a very poor job of vaccinating its populace compared to us (except for the UK). Perhaps we should be looking at Israel as a predictor of where we will be in the next 2-3 months. As of 3/15 Israel has fully vaccinated 50% of its population and 60% have received at least one shot. (I don't know if the percentages include children under 16.) Currently, the USA has fully vaccinated about 20% of its over 18 population and nearly 40% have had at least one shot. Most European countries are in the area of 10-12% for at least one shot and 5-6% for fully vaccinated. https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-m...harp-drop-off/

Also worth noting that Israel had a very high percentage of B117 cases, this article mentions 80%. So vaccine results there are certainly encouraging.

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Uğur Şahin, the chief executive of BioNTech, said: “The real-world data reported from Israel demonstrate that BNT162b2 is exceptionally effective in fighting Sars-CoV-2. Our vaccine has been effective in preventing Covid-19 cases, as well as profoundly reducing the rate of Covid-19-related severe diseases, hospitalisations and deaths.” He said the findings were also important because the data was generated at a time when the Sars-CoV-2 variant B117 – known as the UK or Kent variant because of where it emerged – was the dominant strain. B117, which is highly transmissible, was responsible for 80% of tested cases in Israel during the study period. It now accounts for about 98% of cases in the UK and is also common around the world.

However, we also have to note that Israel went into lockdown due to the B117 variant and loosened restrictions only after a huge number were vaccinated. We’re kinda doing the opposite.https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...vid-protection

Bottom line: we have a massive race going on.

[donheff]

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Originally Posted by jollystomper I tend to lean towards this view. I just remember, back in the May/June timeframe, so many saying how the vaccine trials were being "rushed", no way they would take a vaccine that was approved in less than 18-24 months, and anyone who did take it must be crazy and would danger their health. Now many of those are suddenly saying if you do not take it you must be crazy and are endangering your health - perhaps not realizing that sometimes people cling to the first impression those with influence proclaim.

I think the worry that "they" rushed poorly tested dangerous vaccines to market is misplaced. MRNA (and other) vaccines for Covid are using new approaches that have been decades in the making. Pharma is now armed with methodologies to develop targeted MRNA vaccines in no time at all. Keep in mind, millions of doses of these vaccines were being manufactured in the fall. What took time was the clinical trials and the data don't lie. Scientists all over the world study that data and judge safety and efficacy. If the vaccines were dangerous we would hear about it. In fact, we did hear about it with Astra Zeneca - even though the "danger" was marginal. We now have further data from millions of vaccinated subjects and no red flags are flying.

[MichaelB]

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Originally Posted by jollystomper I have to ask this for clarification. There is a difference between discussing "how bad is Covid really" and discussing "Does Covid physically impact people in different ways for various reasons". I am seeing people confuse the two. So are BOTH unacceptable?

A rose by any other name. If people confuse the two, then it makes sense to avoid both.

[donheff]

Pressure may mount for people to get vaccinated whether they are skeptical or not.

I read an article in the Post yesterday that explored the efforts underway to come up with a so called vaccine passport - credentials documenting that you were vaccinated. The EU is reportedly planning to require such credentials for travel within the EU. Some employers will likely require employees to have such credentials or to wear masks. Risk/benefit analyses are subjective matters. I can visualize a lot of anti mask, anti vax folks lining up for their shots so they can get on a cruise ship.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by donheff Pressure may mount for people to get vaccinated whether they are skeptical or not. I read an article in the Post yesterday that explored the efforts underway to come up with a so called vaccine passport - credentials documenting that you were vaccinated. The EU is reportedly planning to require such credentials for travel within the EU. Some employers will likely require employees to have such credentials or to wear masks. Risk/benefit analyses are subjective matters. I can visualize a lot of anti mask, anti vax folks lining up for their shots so they can get on a cruise ship.

For sure!

I can also also see another outbreak scare driving a lot more younger folks to get vaccinated, when they see this B117 variant spreading like wildfire and making more younger folks sick.

[Chuckanut]

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Originally Posted by donheff Pressure may mount for people to get vaccinated whether they are skeptical or not. I read an article in the Post yesterday that explored the efforts underway to come up with a so called vaccine passport - credentials documenting that you were vaccinated. The EU is reportedly planning to require such credentials for travel within the EU. Some employers will likely require employees to have such credentials or to wear masks. Risk/benefit analyses are subjective matters. I can visualize a lot of anti mask, anti vax folks lining up for their shots so they can get on a cruise ship.

I agree. The pressure to vaccinate will become like the pressure to not smoke in public.

One more thing. Dr. Gottlieb pointed out that resistance to the vaccine fades when the person is in familiar surrounding with familiar people he/she trusts. He recommends more vaccine sites at the local pharmacy where people get their prescriptions filled, their local doctor's office, and local clinics where people may know one or more the employees. It's all about that personal touch from people we trust. Politicians don't have it. Celebrities don't have it. The vaccinated lady next door who works in the local clinic does have it.

[dirtbiker]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut I agree. The pressure to vaccinate will become like the pressure to not smoke in public. One more thing. Dr. Gottlieb pointed out that resistance to the vaccine fades when the person is in familiar surrounding with familiar people he/she trusts. He recommends more vaccine sites at the local pharmacy where people get their prescriptions filled, their local doctors office, and local clinics where people may know one or more the employees. It's all about that personal touch from people we trust. Politicians don't have it. Celebrities don't have it. The vaccinated lady next door who works in the local clinic does have it.

What I've personally seen is the biggest driver in changing people's minds about getting the Covid vaccines is seeing their friends and family get them with minimal/no side effects. The more people they actually know and interact with that get it, the more normal it becomes, and the less apprehensive they become.

I'd like to think that the time I spend with my patients explaining the basic science, the efficacy, the safety, and the fact that my wife and I have gotten ours, our parents, other family members in the medical field have as well is what is convincing people (and it is, to a point)... But realistically it's seeing loved ones get it that really puts people at ease. This is a VERY GOOD thing, as this is down and dirty word-of-mouth advertising, and it works. And it also means that healthcare providers don't need to convince everybody, they just need to convince a few that will then influence others, and so on and so forth.

[GTFan]

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Originally Posted by donheff I think the worry that "they" rushed poorly tested dangerous vaccines to market is misplaced. MRNA (and other) vaccines for Covid are using new approaches that have been decades in the making. Pharma is now armed with methodologies to develop targeted MRNA vaccines in no time at all. Keep in mind, millions of doses of these vaccines were being manufactured in the fall. What took time was the clinical trials and the data don't lie. Scientists all over the world study that data and judge safety and efficacy. If the vaccines were dangerous we would hear about it. In fact, we did hear about it with Astra Zeneca - even though the "danger" was marginal. We now have further data from millions of vaccinated subjects and no red flags are flying.

Yeah and the really exciting aspect of mRNA is that they now can target vaccines to individual cases, e.g. all the different types of cancer. This is huge if it proves out (and trials are encouraging so far).

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-world/618431/

[CaptTom]

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Originally Posted by dirtbiker What I've personally seen is the biggest driver in changing people's minds about getting the Covid vaccines is seeing their friends and family get them with minimal/no side effects. The more people they actually know and interact with that get it, the more normal it becomes, and the less apprehensive they become.

Very good point. I suspect some are just anti-everything. Or put another way, like the attention of being a contrarian. But to others (most, I hope) it'll start to look a bit less macho to be afraid of a shot.

I loved the analogy (earlier post) to smoking in public. Another thing that some people complained loudly about, proclaiming their "rights." Seems that's died down quite a bit. Hopefully we see the same thing here.

[garyt]

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Originally Posted by RetireeRobert It is also possible your son had a "false positive" for the covid test. I heard that can occur sometimes. You did say he had very minor "if any" symptoms. Maybe he never had covid!

Good point

[garyt]

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Originally Posted by donheff I think the worry that "they" rushed poorly tested dangerous vaccines to market is misplaced. MRNA (and other) vaccines for Covid are using new approaches that have been decades in the making.

Very true and yet they've been rejected for use every time. This is the first time they've been approved. That to me is a little concerning. I have had my first shot though and get my second Friday.