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Old 03-17-2020, 11:32 AM   #21
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Old 03-17-2020, 11:38 AM   #22
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I was very sick for ~5 weeks in late Jan/most of Feb. Symptoms were totally consistent with covid. When I went to urgent care the dr told me he’s seen 30 plus people/day with the same symptoms. Did I have it, who knows. But when all is said and done I think we’ll find out a lot more people in our community were exposed/had the virus than we knew.

I have a friend on quarantine. She’s an employee in a hospital in an outbreak area. She has been sick with classic symptoms for 5+ days and only just was able to be tested. So far she’s been negative for all other URIs and they’re waiting on covid test results.

On the positive side, if a person is truly infected with Covid-19, but does not get bad enough to be hospitalized, then it can still end well. People do recover from it.

The main thing is to treat any unknown flu as Covid-19 and to avoid infecting others. Come to think of it, why would anyone want to be infected with the normal flu either?
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Old 03-17-2020, 11:49 AM   #23
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My best friend's real estate agent's 70 y.o. husband is sick with a confirmed case. That same friend's daughter is an ER doc in the Colorado Springs area and has had exposure to a number of sick people with the symptoms but is terribly frustated that she is still unable to do testing unless the person is sick enough to be admitted to the hospital. She is resigned to the notion that she will get infected and it's only a matter of when. Fortunately she is young and healthy so should be able to beat the virus.

It's unconscionable that our vaunted system of scientific research failed so miserably to get these test kits produced. In contrast, it's amazing what other counties like South Korea were able to do: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/...hnk/index.html
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Old 03-17-2020, 12:12 PM   #24
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The idea that people in places without documented community spreading think they're currently surrounded by many infected people seems unjustified to me. I understand keeping out of harm's way, and don't blame people from practicing how it will soon certainly be, though.

So I'm not saying it won't happen (that a high % of encounters will be with an infected person), I'm saying that, right now, you simply can't cover up people showing up at the hospital that can't breath. I presume that will happen 5 or 7 days after they're exposed. I want testing as much as the next guy, but people entering the ER that can't breath is a reasonable, albeit slightly delayed, proxy.

Once the ER's start counting cases like this, you can back-up the clock by a week and get a reasonable estimate on the percent of the community that were infected a week earlier. I presume that will be a very, very small number at the time that the very first ER cases are reported. But in my case, AFAIK, the ER's aren't getting anybody like that, so I presume that if there are people walking around my geography that "have it", that percentage is vanishingly small. Again, I'm not licking grocery cart handles, but we planned to "just live our lives" until there was significant risk. Alas, our state has closed sit-down restaurants. So much for living our lives normally. We're done going out for a long time. It feels weird.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:19 PM   #25
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I do not know one person with the virus, or anyone with a community contact.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:25 PM   #26
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Do not know of anyone who has it. But who knows....I may have it and don't know it. I had the west nile virus once and didn't know it. Just had mild symptoms and casually mentioned it to my dr at a routine check up so he tested for it.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:40 PM   #27
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I don’t know anyone who has it. My sister thought she had it and was tested negative for the virus but positive for pleurisy. She also has Lupus so is in a susceptible category. She told me today that she still feels terrible but her bloods are coming into line. I asked how busy it was at the clinic and she said that the hospital sent a phlebotomist to her home at 9am and someone called with the results at 3pm.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:44 PM   #28
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As I look at the map today, I see that West Virginia is still the only state with no known cases. Wonder what they're doing right? Even Wyoming, with only a third of WV's population, has three cases.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:47 PM   #29
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As I look at the map today, I see that West Virginia is still the only state with no known cases. Wonder what they're doing right? Even Wyoming, with only a third of WV's population, has three cases.
How many have they tested in West Virginia? Oh. I googled it. They've tested 84 people total. You're right, that's pretty terrific. Louisiana would have had over 30 positive results after 84 tests, since ours are always over 1/3 positive.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:51 PM   #30
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Once the ER's start counting cases like this, you can back-up the clock by a week and get a reasonable estimate on the percent of the community that were infected a week earlier.
ERs are getting many respiratory cases: it’s flu season. Unless the patient tests positive for flu the ER is flying blind. Tests for coronavirus have been largely unavailable to ERs and results may take days even when the test is allowed. The infection spreads rapidly and symptoms are often minimal for a week or more. I hope you are right but, personally, I’m not taking much comfort in the lack of local diagnoses.
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Old 03-17-2020, 01:55 PM   #31
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I don't claim to be an expert, but it is my understanding that anyone can have the virus but be asymptomatic, or, they have some symptoms but have not been tested so there's no way to know. So it's possible that you or someone you know has the virus but you don't know it.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:00 PM   #32
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I don't claim to be an expert, but it is my understanding that anyone can have the virus but be asymptomatic, so it's possible that you or someone you know has the virus but you don't know it.
The WHO report said that truly asymptomatic cases were very rare. Rather, some people had a long incubation period, but eventually all showed symptoms, which could be mild. Yes, they could be spreading the virus while having no symptoms, or very mild ones they brushed it off as a cold.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:21 PM   #33
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I probably know many who have it, but there's so little testing here, I don't know. Our major hospital got 50 test kits. So, I treat everyone as if they have it. I'll smile, nod my head so not to be rude, but keep my distance.
What would make you assume you know many that have it?

Yes, with so little testing we can't know. But of the ~ 100 known cases in IL (population ~ 12 Million), many of those are in nursing homes. And even though Champaign/Urbana has a pretty high % of Chinese nationals attending U_of_I, and that might increase the risk, there haven't been any reported deaths in all of IL. With zero deaths in IL, and an ~ 2% fatality rate (numbers vary widely), it just doesn't seem likely there are all that many cases here. That might change over the next month, but "many", now?

It still is good to take precautions, I kept my distance in the short line voting today (local referendum I wanted to vote for, raising my taxes, but better to maintain our roads now then spend more later).

As NW-Bound mentioned, these measures help reduce the normal flu, which I had once and it was awful. I'd say it's possible that these measures might really result in lower deaths overall, just from preventing the regular flu, which in the US ...

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CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
So if these precautions cut the regular flu cases, that would in proportion, free up hospital beds and maybe even lower overall deaths, even with an increase from corona virus?

Please note, I said "MIGHT/MAYBE", that seemed to get missed over and over again in some of my other posts. No one knows, just throwing out some possible scenarios for thought.

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Old 03-17-2020, 02:36 PM   #34
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The idea that people in places without documented community spreading think they're currently surrounded by many infected people seems unjustified to me. I understand keeping out of harm's way, and don't blame people from practicing how it will soon certainly be, though.

So I'm not saying it won't happen (that a high % of encounters will be with an infected person), I'm saying that, right now, you simply can't cover up people showing up at the hospital that can't breath. I presume that will happen 5 or 7 days after they're exposed. I want testing as much as the next guy, but people entering the ER that can't breath is a reasonable, albeit slightly delayed, proxy.

Once the ER's start counting cases like this, you can back-up the clock by a week and get a reasonable estimate on the percent of the community that were infected a week earlier. I presume that will be a very, very small number at the time that the very first ER cases are reported. But in my case, AFAIK, the ER's aren't getting anybody like that, so I presume that if there are people walking around my geography that "have it", that percentage is vanishingly small. Again, I'm not licking grocery cart handles, but we planned to "just live our lives" until there was significant risk. Alas, our state has closed sit-down restaurants. So much for living our lives normally. We're done going out for a long time. It feels weird.
Bingo on that. Our state keeps weekly flu season numbers of people hospitalized with pneumonia or pneumonia type illness. The number has been dropping for at least two weeks.

As for testing the standard in flu season is of 100 people tested with flu like symptoms 65 will test negative. Our state is testing on Covid only people with high risk of exposure and over 97% are testing NEGATIVE.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:50 PM   #35
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On our local 3 news networks, 1 case is reported in our county, since last Friday. Our county health department, our 4 local hospitals, know of NOBODY who has a CONFIRMED case. The Johns Hopkins site reports no one in the county but the NYT reports there are 2.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:52 PM   #36
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Testing "should" explode over the next few days, assuming they aren't faulty or something, and assuming they get into the distribution pipeline. I drove by one of the big Thermo-Fisher plants on Sunday and the lot was full. Not sure if that plant deals with the tests or not. Roche is supposedly on a similar production trajectory.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/ther...-per-week.html

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  • We have already about 1.5 million tests in stock. We began shipping them yesterday and today,” Thermo Fisher Scientific CEO Marc Casper said of the company’s coronavirus test production.
  • “But we’re ramping up to about 2 million tests in production a week, and then over the course of April we’ll be able to get that to about 5 million tests a week in terms of production,” he said in a “Mad Money” interview.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:03 PM   #37
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As I look at the map today, I see that West Virginia is still the only state with no known cases. Wonder what they're doing right? Even Wyoming, with only a third of WV's population, has three cases.
When the number is so low at many states right now, it's just random chance.

All it takes is one superspreader like that NY lawyer in New Rochelle spending a week vacation there in West Virginia, and all hell will break loose. That NY lawyer single-handedly infected 50 people who could be traced directly to him: his family, his neighbor's family, his church members, etc...

And I read of an Indian tribe who is bracing for a virus outbreak. The county has a population of 9000 for 1150 sq.mi. Did they get visited by a European or Asian tourist? Nope. One of the tribe members attended a conference in the US, and brought back the virus. Snake eyes!
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:09 PM   #38
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Bingo on that. Our state keeps weekly flu season numbers of people hospitalized with pneumonia or pneumonia type illness. The number has been dropping for at least two weeks.

As for testing the standard in flu season is of 100 people tested with flu like symptoms 65 will test negative. Our state is testing on Covid only people with high risk of exposure and over 97% are testing NEGATIVE.
3% positive?
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:35 PM   #39
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What would make you assume you know many that have it?
-ERD50
DF, lives around the corner, works at international grade school. She was very sick, home for over a week. Temp, cough had to stay in bed. Our hospital did not test her b/c they did not have test kits. She is on the mend, went back to school and to the library. Still did not feel that great and took another day off. I don't know how many people exactly she came in contact with.

Lady who lives 4 houses down. Upper respiratory symptoms. Has temp and cough. She asked me to go to Dr office with her. I declined. She asked another friend. Went to Dr office, busy waiting room. No test.
I'm taking the liberty to say "many" and self isolating until the 50 tests finally allowed have results.

How is it every other country is testing daily, thousands (our relatives in Italy) and we test how many?
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:47 PM   #40
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Community spread confirmed, and 24 new cases in my county announced today. One of whom works at my (large) employer.

I personally have mild flu-like symptoms, but nothing worse.

I don't personally know anyone (that I know of!).
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