Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[ivinsfan]

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 I appreciate being able to stock up on wine to go with all that food I'm cooking at home. The working folks who still have jobs revolting - that has nothing to do with booze being treated as essential.

I think it does as the capricious nature of defining jobs as essential determines who is expected to go out everyday working and perhaps risk the health of themselves and their families. At some point if this drags on long enough , the people in the essential jobs are going to say, enough already.

I agree people would rather be out productive and earning their money when possible but, the some stay at home and some are expected to work because we need their stuff, is not a model for the long term.

[NameRedacted]

What I think we need, other than a vaccine, are two tests.


First test shows whether you have had the virus. If you have then you can go back to work. Otherwise you stay locked down. Once the virus has mostly died down in your area due to social distancing. You can start allowing people who have never had the virus and are youngish and have no comorbidities back to work/school.


This is where the second test comes in. We need a quick test, like a pregnancy test, that is cheap and readily available. People can test themselves every day or every few days and if they have the virus they get isolated until they are virus free.

[JoeWras]

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Originally Posted by NameRedacted What I think we need, other than a vaccine, are two tests. First test shows whether you have had the virus. If you have then you can go back to work. Otherwise you stay locked down. Once the virus has mostly died down in your area due to social distancing. You can start allowing people who have never had the virus and are youngish and have no comorbidities back to work/school. This is where the second test comes in. We need a quick test, like a pregnancy test, that is cheap and readily available. People can test themselves every day or every few days and if they have the virus they get isolated until they are virus free.

I get it. I generally agree with you. However...

We absolutely need the antibody positive test, so as to model the progress of and characteristics of the disease. But the idea of then giving you a work permit based on that test (and age?) is likely to fail multiple legal challenges in the USA. This essentially puts everyone who is not virus positive into an internment camp. We have a bad history of that. As a society we've worked pretty hard to make work available to all, including those with various challenges. With this one exception, it is out the window.

This could lead to risky behavior, i.e. an attempt to get the virus so one could get the permit.

[ivinsfan]

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Originally Posted by JoeWras I get it. I generally agree with you. However... We absolutely need the antibody positive test, so as to model the progress of and characteristics of the disease. But the idea of then giving you a work permit based on that test (and age?) is likely to fail multiple legal challenges in the USA. This essentially puts everyone who is not virus positive into an internment camp. We have a bad history of that. As a society we've worked pretty hard to make work available to all, including those with various challenges. With this one exception, it is out the window. This could lead to risky behavior, i.e. an attempt to get the virus so one could get the permit.

I agree Joe... that is never going to happen as far as work permits...next people will suggest we take people that had the virus and tell them where to work and what to do.

[ivinsfan]

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Originally Posted by NameRedacted What I think we need, other than a vaccine, are two tests. First test shows whether you have had the virus. If you have then you can go back to work. Otherwise you stay locked down. Once the virus has mostly died down in your area due to social distancing. You can start allowing people who have never had the virus and are youngish and have no comorbidities back to work/school. This is where the second test comes in. We need a quick test, like a pregnancy test, that is cheap and readily available. People can test themselves every day or every few days and if they have the virus they get isolated until they are virus free.

Do you really think this, man this all started with saying most people will get the virus and be fine but we need to flatten the curve to make sure people who need care get it and now you think we should lock people in their homes until they test positive. So someone elderly sheltering in place is going die in their home..or sit there for years until we have a vaccine?

[statsman]

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Originally Posted by ivinsfan Do you really think this, man this all started with saying most people will get the virus and be fine but we need to flatten the curve to make sure people who need care get it and now you think we should lock people in their homes until they test positive. So someone elderly sheltering in place is going die in their home..or sit there for years until we have a vaccine?

This is exactly what some people are saying. As someone on this forum said recently, (paraphrasing) "I think I would rather die from the virus than live like this."

We haven't seen our kid in 5 weeks, and we would normally have done so by now. Certainly for Easter, and we've agreed to not meet up. If heaven forbid something happens to one of us during this shutdown period and we can't meet up, I will lose it.

[RonBoyd]

Prior to COVID-19, there had been four pandemics over the last century.

•	The swine flu (2009–2010), which started in Mexico, may have infected as much as 11%–21% of the global population. A study in 2013 estimated that between 123,000 and 203,000 people died.
•	The Hong Kong flu (1968–1969) killed an estimated 1 million people worldwide and about 100,000 in the US.
•	The Asian flu was first reported in Singapore in 1957. There were approximately 1.1 million deaths around the world and 116,000 in the US.
•	The Spanish flu (1918-1919) infected as much as one-third of the global population, killing as many as 50 million people worldwide and 675,000 in the US.

Asian countries have had a much different experience with infectious disease outbreaks. There are many people alive today in those countries who experienced firsthand the Hong Kong flu and the Asian flu pandemics that each killed more than a million people.

In Western countries, we are prone to doubt, because the fear of deadly outbreaks has always been blown way out of proportion. People in Eastern countries act; the West reacts.

Wearing a mask is not met with stigma in countries that have experienced a recent outbreak, such as SARS in 2003, which killed 8,437 people mostly in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Countries that have slowed the spread of COVID-19 have taken measures beyond shelter in place. Quarantine measures are more strictly enforced, and technology closely tracks people’s every move.

In Singapore, for example, the government is using a cell phone app called TraceTogether to monitor citizens’ every move. Breaking a quarantine can land you a $10,000 fine and/or six months in jail. There was a recent jump in COVID-19 cases in Singapore, but the police state has kept the virus fairly well-contained so far.

South Korea has also had success with using cell phones to trace and contain the outbreak. Its early and fast response to the coronavirus has been so effective that its citizens are not living under lockdown, unlike about a third of the rest of the world.

There are already indications from private companies and the government that technology could be used to help track the US outbreak.

This will certainly spark a new privacy debate

Asian countries that were quick to implement social distancing have managed to slow the spread and save lives.

The same four Asian countries that have flattened the curve have had far fewer total deaths and deaths per capita.

Covid-19 06 Apr 2020.JPG

The slightly higher rate of deaths per capita in South Korea (relative to its peers) is most likely due to the fact that more than half of the cases in that country are tied to one church.

Bottom line: Social distancing works. It slows the spread of the disease, which in turn saves lives. We won’t be in lockdown forever, but it should last long enough to ensure that our hospitals have things under control.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by aaronc879 What do you suggest as an alternative? Give every legal adult citizen $1000/wk for the next 15 months or so until a vaccine is ready? Corporations would need to be bailed out as well.

I wasn't proposing an alternative at all. I was trying to understand how this is not a rolling economic disaster until we have a vaccine. You seem to be willing to swap an economic disaster for a medical disaster. I am unwilling to do so.

The reality is that we will try relaxing shutdowns this summer, but we will remain in recession. Lasting damage is being done and all we can do is hope this does not turn into the great depression or the 70s as a result.

[ivinsfan]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 I wasn't proposing an alternative at all. I was trying to understand how this is not a rolling economic disaster until we have a vaccine. You seem to be willing to swap an economic disaster for a medical disaster. I am unwilling to do so. The reality is that we will try relaxing shutdowns this summer, but we will remain in recession. Lasting damage is being done and all we can do is hope this does not turn into the great depression or the 70s as a result.

What where did he say that. Reasonable people can disagree as to what might be the best choice going forward,but no one knows what will happen. I agree with your entire post however you could have removed that sentence that cast the poster as not caring about the welfare of others.

[dd564]

It's a good question on how to re-engage.
Doing so "partially" would yield all sorts of issues.

Say a boss / supervisor couldn't go back to work, but one of his reports could. The report is taking on all the duties of the supervisor. What happens to that supervisor then in the next few weeks or months?
And if the supervisor comes back, how do you "demote" the person who was doing that role?

Also, how does business function. I'm sure there are some where you need 4-5 people to work in conjunction to design / make products. How do you do that with only the tool maker or just the designer or just the supervisor working.

It's a mess.

[timo2]

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Originally Posted by RonBoyd Bottom line: Social distancing works. It slows the spread of the disease, which in turn saves lives. We won’t be in lockdown forever, but it should last long enough to ensure that our hospitals have things under control.

In my state we already have partisan calls against the governor saying they went too far with closing down anything, and telling people to stay home. The more rigorous monitoring done in Asia would be a no-go in my State. I really think some people would rather die than be told what to do.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by ivinsfan What where did he say that. Reasonable people can disagree as to what might be the best choice going forward,but no one knows what will happen. I agree with your entire post however you could have removed that sentence that cast the poster as not caring about the welfare of others.

The way I read it, he clearly implied that we need to reopen everything and damn the torpedoes. If you have a different interpretation, have at it.

Personally I have just been trying to square the rally with a very severe recession in my head. If the rally goes away, I won't have this problem. I consider that a lot more likely than the recession evaporating, considering that we are already at double digit unemployment.

[cbo111]

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Originally Posted by Midpack https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections I’d do a poll, but 99% of us would be WAGing including me. The peak for my state is now Apr 13 moved up from Apr 23. No idea, but I hope so. The sooner we restart the economy the better obviously, that won’t be just after the peak, but sometime thereafter. I hope our leaders are also thinking about how to restart the economy. Fewer and fewer employees will find their way back to former employers if this goes too long - the European model of all the $ relief going to employers to keep paying employees may prove the better approach (assuming they can enforce same as planned). And it’ll be interesting to see if our leaders guide us, or we take matters into our own hands regarding economic activity...

This whole notion of when each state will hit peak got me thinking about how my personal behavior will change in the weeks following peak, when our elected leaders say, "ok, go back to what you were doing before the pandemic." I just don't see myself mingling with fellow citizens for quite a while. My wife has a compromised immune system and I just cannot risk bringing the bug into our home.

[timo2]

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Originally Posted by cbo111 This whole notion of when each state will hit peak got me thinking about how my personal behavior will change in the weeks following peak, when our elected leaders say, "ok, go back to what you were doing before the pandemic." I just don't see myself mingling with fellow citizens for quite a while. My wife has a compromised immune system and I just cannot risk bringing the bug into our home.

+1

Your post caused me consider that many people probably don't know they have a compromised immune system and perhaps that is leading to some of the surprise bad cases of COVID-19? Recall when the ACA first started and some of the experts and insurance companies were surprised at the unexpected health needs/conditions of the people signing up. I wonder if that same element of unknown bad underlying health is playing out with the coronavirus?

[camfused]

I am not good with medical stuff, so someone we need to help here... It seems to me that until there is a vaccine, it will be ok to return to work iff there is an effective treatment. Given that most people who get the virus have mild symptoms, the concern is for those that have severe symptoms. For them, if you can give them one of these malaria or whatever pills, and they are then ok, then that is an acceptable plan. Of course this assumes a treatment is identified that work, works well, and is readily available. It *seems* like there is like a dozen treatment trials going on right now, and once we get some good results, I say people can start working again (wearing masks, like them smart Asian people).

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by camfused I am not good with medical stuff, so someone we need to help here... It seems to me that until there is a vaccine, it will be ok to return to work iff there is an effective treatment. Given that most people who get the virus have mild symptoms, the concern is for those that have severe symptoms. For them, if you can give them one of these malaria or whatever pills, and they are then ok, then that is an acceptable plan. Of course this assumes a treatment is identified that work, works well, and is readily available. It *seems* like there is like a dozen treatment trials going on right now, and once we get some good results, I say people can start working again (wearing masks, like them smart Asian people).

So its OK for people to put a round in their revolver, spin the cylinder, put the business in their mouth, and pull the trigger? If it doesn't go bang, off to work?

You first.

[camfused]

^^^^ What I am saying is once an effective treatment is found for those with severe symptoms, then it is ok to let heard immunity develop. I don't want to see ANYONE die from this in the future, but if a pill can reduce this down to a bad cold, then...

[CardsFan]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 So its OK for people to put a round in their revolver, spin the cylinder, put the business in their mouth, and pull the trigger? If it doesn't go bang, off to work? You first.

Bad analogy. A revolver has 6 cylinders, not 30,000 or more.

Not saying would do it, but your odds are WAY off.

Perspective is important.

[USGrant1962]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 So its OK for people to put a round in their revolver, spin the cylinder, put the business in their mouth, and pull the trigger? If it doesn't go bang, off to work? You first.

Kind of like driving your car?

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 Kind of like driving your car?

Nothing guaranteed in life. But I chose to drive a 5500 pound truck rather than a subcompact.