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04-08-2020, 12:56 PM
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#141
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,396
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
People are at risk out in public now, about 2 million die for a variety of reasons other than old age in the US every year. Some accidental, some not.
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I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.
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04-08-2020, 01:00 PM
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#142
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,577
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwraigty
I'm just trying to point out that it's not nearly as simple as you're trying to make it out to be.
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You are right, there is no simple solution to all of this mess but we need a plan where the economy can start turning back on. Everyone is going to have to sacrifice some and with any solution there will be some that drop through the cracks. Like what happened in WWII. I think giving people choices is a good way to go.
Seeing a lot of people helping out others in need since this started is encouraging.
My neighbor asked me recently if we were ok. First time ever.
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04-08-2020, 01:07 PM
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#143
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustCurious
I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.
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I want the economy back as much as anyone else.
I also want the medical care available when I have heart attack symptoms. Or how about just an artificial knee? That's the problem. That tiny fraction, along with small larger fraction of less sick, take over the medical care, which affects all of us.
__________________
Retired Class of 2018
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04-08-2020, 01:54 PM
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#144
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
I get it. I generally agree with you. However...
We absolutely need the antibody positive test, so as to model the progress of and characteristics of the disease. But the idea of then giving you a work permit based on that test (and age?) is likely to fail multiple legal challenges in the USA. This essentially puts everyone who is not virus positive into an internment camp. We have a bad history of that. As a society we've worked pretty hard to make work available to all, including those with various challenges. With this one exception, it is out the window.
This could lead to risky behavior, i.e. an attempt to get the virus so one could get the permit.
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It will be interesting to see what happens when the legal system comes up against reality. I agree there will be legal challenges but I have to say businesses are being forced to close now, whether they like it or not. Look at Hobby Lobby in Ohio, for example.
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04-08-2020, 01:59 PM
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#145
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Elyria, OH
Posts: 1,937
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My simple, uneducated guess is that the economy will be gradually opened up when states can no longer afford to pay the massive unemployment bills, regardless of where they are on the curve.
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04-08-2020, 03:03 PM
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#146
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,778
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Yes, lots of good news lately. I expect it to turn around next week. I'm hoping for an economic rebound in May.
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04-09-2020, 06:45 AM
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#147
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,636
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To my eyes, the logarithmic graphs look like asymptotic approaches to 1 million recorded cases and 60,000 or so deaths.
The missing piece is the total percentage of people with antibodies to the virus. For it to level off that low suggests that either immunity became widespread quickly or suburban/rural life in the US naturally provided limited opportunities for spreading the virus even before social distancing.
I certainly hope somebody is doing (or will do) population sampling studies.
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04-09-2020, 07:28 AM
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#148
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,597
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Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.
I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbo111
I just don't see myself mingling with fellow citizens for quite a while. My wife has a compromised immune system and I just cannot risk bringing the bug into our home.
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__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Even a blind clock finds an acorn twice a day.
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04-09-2020, 07:39 AM
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#150
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.
I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.
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I would'nt get on a cruise for a long time. I doubt they will be running that soon. DW and I have $10K sunk in luxury 8 day raft trip in the Grand Canyon. Permits have been cancelled thru 5/21, a week before we are scheduled. If the permits get cancelled for our trip we will theoretically get a refund. If the trip goes there is no way we are travelling that soon. We will forfeit the $.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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04-09-2020, 07:44 AM
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#151
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwraigty
My simple, uneducated guess is that the economy will be gradually opened up when states can no longer afford to pay the massive unemployment bills, regardless of where they are on the curve.
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That will definitely be one of several factors. Evidently some states are already having trouble meeting their expenses, and that will only get worse. Similarly, several businesses around us that closed entirely citing community responsibility, have re-opened after a few weeks with conditions, presumably realizing their business would not survive with zero revenue and some unavoidable fixed expenses. That also pressures business more with each passing week.
The people who suggest we act to minimize coronavirus cases/deaths without any regard for other consequences are naive at best. Job 1 for now, but not the only consideration.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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04-09-2020, 07:49 AM
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#152
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 9,952
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A question for any constitution scholars out there.
Have family in Utah so read the news there to keep updated. Utah has lots of cases of COVID, less then some and more then others. They announced they are going to use the EMS system to track everyone in a car that enters the state. Your phone will then notify you that you must go to a state website and and fill out your "papers" as in all kinds of intrusive questions such where have you been and where are going,etc. Oh and they'll also just ask you if you feel unwell and/or have been exposed to COVID. The problem with this is of course you can lie if you want to.
They are tracking you for no other reason then you crossed a state border, they already have the virus in the state.
I keep flashing back to all the WWII movies where the bad guys board the train and ask the good guys. "your papers please" I can't you tell how much privacy we all lost after 911.Is this even constitutional? Where is the end for this stuff, some posters here are kind of agreeing with putting old folks in their own homes until the magic vaccines shows up. Our civil liberties are the founding principle of this country and I'm not talking about sitting home for a few weeks, I talking about people thinking any of this is OK for the long term.
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04-09-2020, 08:33 AM
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#153
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,171
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Many states and localities have taken advantage of the booming economy to raise spending to very high levels. They have also raised taxes to support these levels of spending. In my area just one mass transit issue raised property taxes, car tabs and the sales tax.
Now, the chickens may come home to roost. Without out a vibrant economy to generate the healthy tax revenues to pay for all this stuff...... We'll see what happens. The 'gubmint' is going to have to reduce their fair share of spending and that ain't going to be easy for them.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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04-09-2020, 08:37 AM
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#154
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NameRedacted
It will be interesting to see what happens when the legal system comes up against reality. I agree there will be legal challenges but I have to say businesses are being forced to close now, whether they like it or not. Look at Hobby Lobby in Ohio, for example.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ivinsfan
A question for any constitution scholars out there.
Have family in Utah so read the news there to keep updated. Utah has lots of cases of COVID, less then some and more then others. They announced they are going to use the EMS system to track everyone in a car that enters the state. Your phone will then notify you that you must go to a state website and and fill out your "papers" as in all kinds of intrusive questions such where have you been and where are going,etc. Oh and they'll also just ask you if you feel unwell and/or have been exposed to COVID. The problem with this is of course you can lie if you want to.
They are tracking you for no other reason then you crossed a state border, they already have the virus in the state.
I keep flashing back to all the WWII movies where the bad guys board the train and ask the good guys. "your papers please" I can't you tell how much privacy we all lost after 911.Is this even constitutional? Where is the end for this stuff, some posters here are kind of agreeing with putting old folks in their own homes until the magic vaccines shows up. Our civil liberties are the founding principle of this country and I'm not talking about sitting home for a few weeks, I talking about people thinking any of this is OK for the long term.
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I cannot imagine how tied up courts are going to be in the coming months. So many issues have been brought to light through this ordeal, and much of the law as we know is sure to chance. How many people knew about or even read force majeure clauses in their contracts before this?
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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04-09-2020, 10:02 AM
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#155
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,256
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__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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04-09-2020, 10:37 AM
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#156
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,256
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"Who can think of kissing a stranger, jumping on to a bus or sending their child to school without feeling real fear? Who can think of ordinary pleasure and not assess its risk? Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not — secretly, at least — submitting to science?" --Arundhati Roy
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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04-09-2020, 11:35 AM
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#157
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
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What perplexes me is that politicians at the state and federal level are not using their news briefings to articulate a strategy. It appears to be a lot of 'whining and winging it'. Scott Gottlieb's roadmap is a good start!
Equally frustrating is that the national media is not holding elected officials to articulate and deploy a cogent strategy. Instead, national and global media seem to be literally 'chasing the ambulance' and following the 'if it bleeds it leads' article of faith for the media outlets. This is not news - it is tripe. The only thing this reporting does is wake up a few of the ignorant who have thought Covid-19 was just the flu.
Developed nations with institutional democracies and liberal media are not supposed to be hand wringing week after week at a time like this! What a half a$$ed approach by our institutions.
There, I feel better for ranting.
__________________
DW and I are 62/62. 100% equities 31 years. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension cashed out Dec 2022 before segmentation rates reduced balance - rolled to MM fund, max SS for DH and DW at FRA. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG for 3 years. Next few years will be IRA cash withdrawals or until Stock Market recovers. AA 33% stocks, 67% MM and T-Bills. Rising equity glidepath.
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04-09-2020, 11:51 AM
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#158
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 5,803
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This is a new virus and many, many unknowns, so yes some are
'winging" it.
Social distancing works, if it is stopped too soon, infection rates come back. It is a difficult decision when you have so many unanswered questions. Scientists around the world hopefully are working together to come up with some answers.
I want my answers from the scientists and medical professionals, not the politicians.
__________________
Give a Man a fish, he will eat for a day.
Teach a Man to fish, he will eat for a lifetime.
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04-09-2020, 12:29 PM
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#159
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,317
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I think the ire at the media and states is misdirected. Instead of expecting states to figure out 50 strategies why don’t we see a real Federal Strategy instead of daily gut reactions. Everyone from the medical community to the media to the AIE mentioned above agrees we need a robust testing infrastructure. When are we going to see a coherent national plan to achieve that? Hoping for a hydrochlorazine miracle doesn’t get us anywhere.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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04-09-2020, 12:44 PM
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#160
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,016
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
You can put off changing the oil in your vehicle for awhile, but not forever.
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Why on earth would you put off changing the oil in your vehicle? You can get the virus from oil??
__________________
Well of course it is my opinion, why would I express someone else's??
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