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Old 04-08-2020, 12:56 PM   #141
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People are at risk out in public now, about 2 million die for a variety of reasons other than old age in the US every year. Some accidental, some not.
I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:00 PM   #142
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I'm just trying to point out that it's not nearly as simple as you're trying to make it out to be.
You are right, there is no simple solution to all of this mess but we need a plan where the economy can start turning back on. Everyone is going to have to sacrifice some and with any solution there will be some that drop through the cracks. Like what happened in WWII. I think giving people choices is a good way to go.
Seeing a lot of people helping out others in need since this started is encouraging.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:07 PM   #143
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I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.
I want the economy back as much as anyone else.

I also want the medical care available when I have heart attack symptoms. Or how about just an artificial knee? That's the problem. That tiny fraction, along with small larger fraction of less sick, take over the medical care, which affects all of us.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:54 PM   #144
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I get it. I generally agree with you. However...

We absolutely need the antibody positive test, so as to model the progress of and characteristics of the disease. But the idea of then giving you a work permit based on that test (and age?) is likely to fail multiple legal challenges in the USA. This essentially puts everyone who is not virus positive into an internment camp. We have a bad history of that. As a society we've worked pretty hard to make work available to all, including those with various challenges. With this one exception, it is out the window.

This could lead to risky behavior, i.e. an attempt to get the virus so one could get the permit.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the legal system comes up against reality. I agree there will be legal challenges but I have to say businesses are being forced to close now, whether they like it or not. Look at Hobby Lobby in Ohio, for example.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:59 PM   #145
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My simple, uneducated guess is that the economy will be gradually opened up when states can no longer afford to pay the massive unemployment bills, regardless of where they are on the curve.
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Old 04-08-2020, 03:03 PM   #146
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Yes, lots of good news lately. I expect it to turn around next week. I'm hoping for an economic rebound in May.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:45 AM   #147
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To my eyes, the logarithmic graphs look like asymptotic approaches to 1 million recorded cases and 60,000 or so deaths.

The missing piece is the total percentage of people with antibodies to the virus. For it to level off that low suggests that either immunity became widespread quickly or suburban/rural life in the US naturally provided limited opportunities for spreading the virus even before social distancing.

I certainly hope somebody is doing (or will do) population sampling studies.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:28 AM   #148
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Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.

I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.

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I just don't see myself mingling with fellow citizens for quite a while. My wife has a compromised immune system and I just cannot risk bringing the bug into our home.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:35 AM   #149
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...312351232.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...483509761.html
https://youtu.be/KAn6brpH3-M
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....07.20021154v1

Sounds like we're just getting started.
Revised reproduction rates R0 5.7 (China) 1st link
R0 5 (Germany) 3rd link
R0 4.7-6.6 (Los Alamos Labs US) 4th link

Highly contagious. Herd immunity >82% if immunity is even possible....2nd link.
~1% mortality rate = ? 2.6 million dead in the US at warp speed with that R0 if we let it run
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:39 AM   #150
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Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.

I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.
I would'nt get on a cruise for a long time. I doubt they will be running that soon. DW and I have $10K sunk in luxury 8 day raft trip in the Grand Canyon. Permits have been cancelled thru 5/21, a week before we are scheduled. If the permits get cancelled for our trip we will theoretically get a refund. If the trip goes there is no way we are travelling that soon. We will forfeit the $.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:44 AM   #151
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My simple, uneducated guess is that the economy will be gradually opened up when states can no longer afford to pay the massive unemployment bills, regardless of where they are on the curve.
That will definitely be one of several factors. Evidently some states are already having trouble meeting their expenses, and that will only get worse. Similarly, several businesses around us that closed entirely citing community responsibility, have re-opened after a few weeks with conditions, presumably realizing their business would not survive with zero revenue and some unavoidable fixed expenses. That also pressures business more with each passing week.

The people who suggest we act to minimize coronavirus cases/deaths without any regard for other consequences are naive at best. Job 1 for now, but not the only consideration.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:49 AM   #152
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A question for any constitution scholars out there.

Have family in Utah so read the news there to keep updated. Utah has lots of cases of COVID, less then some and more then others. They announced they are going to use the EMS system to track everyone in a car that enters the state. Your phone will then notify you that you must go to a state website and and fill out your "papers" as in all kinds of intrusive questions such where have you been and where are going,etc. Oh and they'll also just ask you if you feel unwell and/or have been exposed to COVID. The problem with this is of course you can lie if you want to.

They are tracking you for no other reason then you crossed a state border, they already have the virus in the state.

I keep flashing back to all the WWII movies where the bad guys board the train and ask the good guys. "your papers please" I can't you tell how much privacy we all lost after 911.Is this even constitutional? Where is the end for this stuff, some posters here are kind of agreeing with putting old folks in their own homes until the magic vaccines shows up. Our civil liberties are the founding principle of this country and I'm not talking about sitting home for a few weeks, I talking about people thinking any of this is OK for the long term.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:33 AM   #153
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Many states and localities have taken advantage of the booming economy to raise spending to very high levels. They have also raised taxes to support these levels of spending. In my area just one mass transit issue raised property taxes, car tabs and the sales tax.

Now, the chickens may come home to roost. Without out a vibrant economy to generate the healthy tax revenues to pay for all this stuff...... We'll see what happens. The 'gubmint' is going to have to reduce their fair share of spending and that ain't going to be easy for them.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:37 AM   #154
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It will be interesting to see what happens when the legal system comes up against reality. I agree there will be legal challenges but I have to say businesses are being forced to close now, whether they like it or not. Look at Hobby Lobby in Ohio, for example.
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A question for any constitution scholars out there.

Have family in Utah so read the news there to keep updated. Utah has lots of cases of COVID, less then some and more then others. They announced they are going to use the EMS system to track everyone in a car that enters the state. Your phone will then notify you that you must go to a state website and and fill out your "papers" as in all kinds of intrusive questions such where have you been and where are going,etc. Oh and they'll also just ask you if you feel unwell and/or have been exposed to COVID. The problem with this is of course you can lie if you want to.

They are tracking you for no other reason then you crossed a state border, they already have the virus in the state.

I keep flashing back to all the WWII movies where the bad guys board the train and ask the good guys. "your papers please" I can't you tell how much privacy we all lost after 911.Is this even constitutional? Where is the end for this stuff, some posters here are kind of agreeing with putting old folks in their own homes until the magic vaccines shows up. Our civil liberties are the founding principle of this country and I'm not talking about sitting home for a few weeks, I talking about people thinking any of this is OK for the long term.
I cannot imagine how tied up courts are going to be in the coming months. So many issues have been brought to light through this ordeal, and much of the law as we know is sure to chance. How many people knew about or even read force majeure clauses in their contracts before this?
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:02 AM   #155
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And if people stop staying home, cases will increase.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...W7cCJpi20y3_7g

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Q. How will we know when it is safe to discontinue stay-at-home orders?

A. That's a great question, and I think the serologic surveys [to see if people have been infected and have antibodies] will be critical in doing that, because that's a necessary piece of the puzzle to understand how many people have been infected. The second piece, once we have those serologic studies, is figuring out how protective immunity is. We don't know whether it will be possible to distinguish someone who is functionally immune from someone who has an immune response that's not that protective. We hope that it will be possible. But that's an open scientific question right now.

Q. How long will it take to answer that question?

A. I hesitate to say this, because I understand that it's economically and otherwise not really acceptable, but from the standpoint of trying to keep cases under control, I don't see an answer coming until at least the next month or two about it being okay to reopen. There may also just be so much fatigue that places will try it, and then they'll see the consequences. … Waiting until the ICU is overwhelmed again is not a good policy. It is a disastrous policy.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:37 AM   #156
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"Who can think of kissing a stranger, jumping on to a bus or sending their child to school without feeling real fear? Who can think of ordinary pleasure and not assess its risk? Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not — secretly, at least — submitting to science?" --Arundhati Roy
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:35 AM   #157
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Is that Scott Gottlieb? His roadmap was developed at the AEI, and can be found here https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/
What perplexes me is that politicians at the state and federal level are not using their news briefings to articulate a strategy. It appears to be a lot of 'whining and winging it'. Scott Gottlieb's roadmap is a good start!

Equally frustrating is that the national media is not holding elected officials to articulate and deploy a cogent strategy. Instead, national and global media seem to be literally 'chasing the ambulance' and following the 'if it bleeds it leads' article of faith for the media outlets. This is not news - it is tripe. The only thing this reporting does is wake up a few of the ignorant who have thought Covid-19 was just the flu.

Developed nations with institutional democracies and liberal media are not supposed to be hand wringing week after week at a time like this! What a half a$$ed approach by our institutions.

There, I feel better for ranting.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:51 AM   #158
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This is a new virus and many, many unknowns, so yes some are
'winging" it.
Social distancing works, if it is stopped too soon, infection rates come back. It is a difficult decision when you have so many unanswered questions. Scientists around the world hopefully are working together to come up with some answers.
I want my answers from the scientists and medical professionals, not the politicians.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:29 PM   #159
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I think the ire at the media and states is misdirected. Instead of expecting states to figure out 50 strategies why don’t we see a real Federal Strategy instead of daily gut reactions. Everyone from the medical community to the media to the AIE mentioned above agrees we need a robust testing infrastructure. When are we going to see a coherent national plan to achieve that? Hoping for a hydrochlorazine miracle doesn’t get us anywhere.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:44 PM   #160
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You can put off changing the oil in your vehicle for awhile, but not forever.

Why on earth would you put off changing the oil in your vehicle? You can get the virus from oil??
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