Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[brewer12345]

Bad analogy. A revolver has 6 cylinders, not 30,000 or more.

Not saying would do it, but your odds are WAY off.

Perspective is important.

OK, you first.

 

[Aerides]

Can we knock it off with the guns & ammo please and stick to the topic?

 

[camfused]

More on herd immunity: https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/...munity_threshold_could_be_lowered_in_iceland/

which I only support once there is a good treatment for severely sick folks.

 

[CardsFan]

OK, you first.

Didn't say I would. Just saying that 1 in 6 is a lot different than 1 in 30,000 (or what ever the number turns out to be)

 

[audreyh1]

+1

Your post caused me consider that many people probably don't know they have a compromised immune system and perhaps that is leading to some of the surprise bad cases of COVID-19? Recall when the ACA first started and some of the experts and insurance companies were surprised at the unexpected health needs/conditions of the people signing up. I wonder if that same element of unknown bad underlying health is playing out with the coronavirus?

I have a WAG theory that some of the people with the really bad “surprise” cases of COVID-19 are due to being exposed to a large dose of the virus. I’d rather be exposed to a small dose of the virus if I’m going to be exposed, so I’m going to continue to take precautions.

 

[audreyh1]

More on herd immunity: https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/...munity_threshold_could_be_lowered_in_iceland/

which I only support once there is a good treatment for severely sick folks.

Their 100% testing and quarantining is letting them reduce the spread - the R0 which lowers the threshold required for herd immunity. But it seems they would have to keep up the contact tracing, testing and quarantining to maintain this.

 

[ivinsfan]

So its OK for people to put a round in their revolver, spin the cylinder, put the business in their mouth, and pull the trigger? If it doesn't go bang, off to work?

You first.

What's up with you today..so dismissive to and about people...I'm used to much better comments from you..I usually enjoy your replies. I think these times are stressing people out. It's scary.

 

[homestead]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

 

[Midpack]

What's up with you today..so dismissive to and about people...I'm used to much better comments from you..I usually enjoy your replies. I think these times are stressing people out. It's scary.

Indeed. You’ve had some provocative posts lately yourself. We’re all a little stressed...

 

[Midpack]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

Something like that. But we can’t make it work without readily available testing, something quick and reliable like the Abbott Labs model? I can’t figure out how close we are there, some sources say testing is available, others insist it’s not. I just hope we’re smart enough to learn from other countries restarts like South Korea, Taiwan and China (maybe) since we didn’t learn from them going in...

 

[JoeWras]

Something like that. But we can’t make it work without readily available testing, something quick and reliable like the Abbott Labs model? I can’t figure out how close we are there, some sources say testing is available, others insist it’s not. I just hope we’re smart enough to learn from other countries restarts like South Korea, Taiwan and China (maybe) since we didn’t learn from them going in...

Yes, there are tests out there, but they are coming up short when put up to rigorous testing. Example: the test the UK held up to high promise.

There are others in the pipeline undergoing such testing right now that show more promise. The hope is "soon" (weeks) we'll have some reliable ones.

As for stress and posting: I think we've all cracked a bit. I've had to "self isolate" myself for a few days recently when I've gotten emotional with my posts. And I apologize for those I've agitated.

These are interesting times.

 

[JoeWras]

One more thing about antibody tests. One of the CEOs of a company developing these tests was on CNBC this morning. He is confident of approval of their test, but it requires a blood draw. I think the holy grail is a finger prick. Those are not working well yet.

 

[Midpack]

Not to criticize by any means, but I hope “we” are studying all the countries ahead of us on their curves to see what’s working (and not) that we can implement in the weeks ahead. I trust our leaders are? Recognizing no ones data is perfect - South Korea, US and China charts from this morning. Unfortunately most other countries are on the same path as the US. Again I hope the US (and others) peak mid-April.

 

[JoeWras]

Size matters. Freedom matters.

If the US were China, NYC, New Orleans and Seattle would be walled off right now.

A large country like the USA also experiences waves at different times, due to travel. This is different than a smaller country like S. Korea. A better comparison to S. Korea would be S. California. Where, I think we're doing pretty well at this point on the curve.

I totally see your point. I also hope our leaders are paying attention. My point is simply that a large free country with local interests is very hard to compare to a small free country, or a large country with a more paternalistic political system.

 

[DallasGuy]

People can not go back to work and expect to be safe at this point or even in 2-3 months. That's a fact! Until there's a vaccine, people will continue to risk their lives by going out in public or going back to work. The whole flatten the curve thing is just another way of saying that we can accept a certain amount of disease and death without overtaxing the hospitals. Nothing will ever be normal until a vaccine is released. Our economy will continue to run at half speed or less until then. I for one, will not go out on a regular basis until I'm completely safe. And I think many other people will also be like me.

 

[gwraigty]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

The experts propose an antibody test to see who can safely go back to work. This would require the equivalent of a doctor's note/official lab test result to prove to the employer that the employee was safe to go back to work. On a purely legal standpoint, wouldn't this run afoul of HIPPA laws?

From a practical standpoint, what do you do about the unemployed in #3? A vaccine for the general public is still at least 18 months away. Unemployment will run out long before a vaccine is ready.

What about being allowed out in public in general, other than to buy food and other necessities? When all of retail is opened up again and dining in restaurants is allowed, Group #3 is going to want to partake in normal activities again, too.

 

[Midpack]

People can not go back to work and expect to be safe at this point or even in 2-3 months. That's a fact! Until there's a vaccine, people will continue to risk their lives by going out in public or going back to work. The whole flatten the curve thing is just another way of saying that we can accept a certain amount of disease and death without overtaxing the hospitals. Nothing will ever be normal until a vaccine is released. Our economy will continue to run at half speed or less until then. I for one, will not go out on a regular basis until I'm completely safe. And I think many other people will also be like me.

An effective vaccine does change the risks, but I hope you’re not suggesting we’re all shut down for 18 months. The economic damage will exceed the effects of the virus. “That’s a fact!” - no more than your myopic proclamation. People are at risk out in public now, about 2 million die for a variety of reasons other than old age in the US every year. Some accidental, some not.

And how many millions of essential workers do you think are reporting work every day throughout this at grocery, big box, pharmacies, city/county services, police, fire, health care, about 20% of restaurant workers (for now), etc. Even if we reach 20% unemployment (I hope not), that’s 80% working and not all are at home.

We’ll see how the herd immunity model works out, I don’t know and neither do you.

Most people aren’t at the same risk as elderly/underlying health issue citizens. Many have said 80% of us would have mild symptoms, and there’s no evidence in the stats so far that’s not true. I’m sure some, like you, will hang back even after the economy begins to restart, some can’t afford to.

So far 0.12% of the US population has been infected, 0.004% have died. No idea how this will unfold but 10 times that would be 1.2% and 0.04%.

We don’t know what the “facts” are yet.

 

[DallasGuy]

An effective vaccine does change the risks, but I hope you’re not suggesting we’re all shut down for 18 months. The economic damage will exceed the effects of the virus.

We’ll see how the herd immunity model works out, I don’t know and neither do you.

Most people aren’t at the same risk as elderly/underlying health issue citizens. I’m sure some, like you, will hang back even after the economy begins to restart, some can’t afford to.

And how many millions of essential workers do you think are reporting work every day throughout this at grocery, big box, pharmacies, city/county services, police, fire, health care, about 20% of restaurant workers (for now). Even if we reach 20% unemployment (I hope not), that’s 80% working and not all are at home.

We don’t know what the “facts” are yet.

I'm saying that as soon as you have people going back to work, the disease will go up again...and fast. That's the risk. It's a fact!

As far as herd immunity, it's not as great as some people might think. I personally do not know anyone that has had Covid 19 and the number of reported cases in the Dallas Fort Worth area (where I live) is pretty low so far because of early physical distancing put into place compared to other cities. Sure some people probably had it and didn't know but my guess is that the number of those people is pretty low.

If you want people to go back to work soon, there will be consequences of many more people getting the disease and some dying. That's a fact.

 

[RonBoyd]

This may have been post previously... if so, sorry about that.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...y-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

As COVID-19 surges in places throughout the country, Americans are left to wonder, "When will my state hit its worst point?"
...
While projections like these are imprecise, they're useful to policymakers and hospital leaders trying to prepare for surges. The model was designed to give hospitals an idea of how quickly they need to expand capacity and by how much.

Researchers at IHME make frequent updates to the model based on newly available data, and some of those changes have resulted in drastic shifts. The latest major update, made Sunday, shows fewer people dying over a shorter period of time, the model's lead researcher Chris Murray says.

However, he cautioned that when social distancing measures lift, outbreaks could spark up again.

 

[Moemg]

I am older 73 and high risk so I am supposed to just stay inside until they find a vaccine ? That isn't happening at some point I have to restart my life and accept the risk .I call older people who live alone just to talk to them and this is really hard on them .Having no social contact is making some of them bonkers .

 

[PatrickA5]

Your post caused me consider that many people probably don't know they have a compromised immune system and perhaps that is leading to some of the surprise bad cases of COVID-19? Recall when the ACA first started and some of the experts and insurance companies were surprised at the unexpected health needs/conditions of the people signing up. I wonder if that same element of unknown bad underlying health is playing out with the coronavirus?

+1

I wouldn't have known I have coronary artery disease if I hadn't of taken a cheap CT scan a few years ago. I imagine there are many, many people that don't know they have a underlying health condition. Huge amounts of people have high blood pressure (and don't know it). Same with diabetes.

 

[PatrickA5]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

While this sounds good in theory, I just don't see how this would work in the U.S.

What is older? 50? 60? 70?

Who is high risk? Do they have to prove they aren't? A lot of people don't know they are high risk. If a 40 year old has high blood pressure, are they forbidden from going back to work?

How is any of this enforced? I live in a state that a large percentage of the population doesn't think anybody should tell them what they can and can't do. Our Governor was late to the game for that very reason.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I certainly don't have the answers.

 

[gauss]

I suspect that once the major concerns of overwhelming the healthcare system has subsided, and the associated fear in society begins to subside, that we will start our journey back to a more normal economy.

This could happen without vaccines or antibody tests if the governors return the decision to go out into public back to the individuals.

The governors, who have imposed these restrictions, are at the end of the day political entities and once the perceived fear of the disease is less than the fear of ones individual economy we will see increasing pressure for this.

-gauss

 

[pacergal]

I have no idea how things are going to play out in the next several months. There is not enough testing going on the determine the full risk of the disease, let alone trying to do mass antibody testing. I believe there are many asymptomatic positives out there. Flattening the curve/hitting peak/ etc, really just means transmission has slowed enough for the health care system to handle the worst cases.

Until a vaccine or successful treatment is available, I plan to stay out of the public as much as I can and wear a mask if I do go out.And no travel! :-(.
I have limited my contact with kids/grands to once a week or less, only because I know they all have limited exposure since they are all home bound too. If schools and work/economy opens back up, I will be limiting my time around them and I will be wearing a mask around them, also.

 

[PatrickA5]

I suspect that once the major concerns of overwhelming the healthcare system has subsided, and the associated fear in society begins to subside, that we will start our journey back to a more normal economy.

This could happen without vaccines or antibody tests if the governors return the decision to go out into public back to the individuals.

The governors, who have imposed these restrictions, are at the end of the day political entities and once the perceived fear of the disease is less than the fear of ones individual economy we will see increasing pressure for this.

-gauss

+1

Just a guess, but I think the pressure will be immense. My guess is starting as early as May/June. It'll start at the top. Most Governors will fall in line. Fauci will all of a sudden not be on TV anymore. Many people will look at the final death toll and think it wasn't that bad and start quoting deaths from the flu and car wrecks again.

The result all depends on if there is a 2nd wave and how bad it is.