Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[Just_Steve]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

A lot of older folks still work, so who is going to pay their bills?
Who is going to do their shopping?
Where are they getting the money for everything needed in life?

 

[Doribe]

Seems like the next phase could be something like this...
1. Anyone who has had the virus can go back to work if they pass a test that they are no longer a carrier.
2. Younger low risk folks can go back to work with a mask and they must also pass test that they are not CV positive.
3. Older & high risk folks must stay home until there is a vaccine.
4. Middle aged folks decide on their own based on their risks which group 2 or 3 they want to be in.

Your outlook seems reasonable as long as there are tests for antibodies and CV.

One glitch could be that the antibodies only last a short time or a vaccine cannot be made. That is the case with Norovirus.

I am over 60 but in general good health with an immune disorder. DH is 68. We plan to avoid travel until there is a vaccine. This will be a big change since I usually set up and plan several independent travel vacations a year. I will refocus my energy into my garden and DIY home improvement projects.

 

[Midpack]

I'm saying that as soon as you have people going back to work, the disease will go up again...and fast. That's the risk. It's a fact!

As far as herd immunity, it's not as great as some people might think. I personally do not know anyone that has had Covid 19 and the number of reported cases in the Dallas Fort Worth area (where I live) is pretty low so far because of early physical distancing put into place compared to other cities. Sure some people probably had it and didn't know but my guess is that the number of those people is pretty low.

If you want people to go back to work soon, there will be consequences of many more people getting the disease and some dying. That's a fact.

You don’t know any more than the rest of us. Again, how many millions and millions of Americans have/are working throughout this Covid-19 episode? Many not at home. By your logic they’d all need to stay home too. Simple answers don’t help.

 

[homestead]

The experts propose an antibody test to see who can safely go back to work. This would require the equivalent of a doctor's note/official lab test result to prove to the employer that the employee was safe to go back to work. On a purely legal standpoint, wouldn't this run afoul of HIPPA laws?

From a practical standpoint, what do you do about the unemployed in #3? A vaccine for the general public is still at least 18 months away. Unemployment will run out long before a vaccine is ready.

What about being allowed out in public in general, other than to buy food and other necessities? When all of retail is opened up again and dining in restaurants is allowed, Group #3 is going to want to partake in normal activities again, too.

Good idea on the testing.

For unemployed 65 or older in group 3 there is SS & Medicare. Or they can seek stay at home jobs or move in with friends/relatives.

For group 3 being out in public/shopping same as now, Most would probably stay at home unless they need to go shopping. Or just have groceries delivered.
Don't think it would be mandatory, go to restaurants/wherever at your own risk.
Masks however might be mandatory if you are out in public.

 

[JoeWras]

IHME model loaded with new data again today.

 

[DallasGuy]

You don’t know any more than the rest of us. Again, how many millions and millions of Americans have/are working throughout this Covid-19 episode? Many not at home. By your logic they’d all need to stay home too. Simple answers don’t help.

In this case, simple answers did help. When people stayed home, the number of people getting infected dropped. I don't think that was complicated at all.

 

[homestead]

While this sounds good in theory, I just don't see how this would work in the U.S.

What is older? 50? 60? 70?

Who is high risk? Do they have to prove they aren't? A lot of people don't know they are high risk. If a 40 year old has high blood pressure, are they forbidden from going back to work?

How is any of this enforced? I live in a state that a large percentage of the population doesn't think anybody should tell them what they can and can't do. Our Governor was late to the game for that very reason.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I certainly don't have the answers.

All good questions , I think 65 would be a good age since they can get SS & Medicare.
If a 40 yr old with high blood pressure has a job and and wants to go back to work I think they should let them decide or maybe pursue a stay at home job.
If everyone is wearing a mask the risk/transmission will be less.

Yeah, I think the governors can dictate the temporary rules. It will be difficult for the leaders to agree on any of this and keep politics out of it.

 

[homestead]

A lot of older folks still work, so who is going to pay their bills?
Who is going to do their shopping?
Where are they getting the money for everything needed in life?

They can go back to work if they want to take the risk or just retire or sit it out
until there is a vaccine and then go back to work.
They can take the risk & do their own shopping or have it delivered.
Since they are older they can take SS & Medicare.

 

[brewer12345]

In this case, simple answers did help. When people stayed home, the number of people getting infected dropped. I don't think that was complicated at all.

And if people stop staying home, cases will increase.

 

[DallasGuy]

And if people stop staying home, cases will increase.

Exactly!

We all would like to know how this situation winds down and ends. In my mind (I could be wrong) it doesn't truly end until we get a vaccine or some sort of preventative medication. We would all love it to just end tomorrow. But there is no magic wand to make that work. And people tend to overlook that this can be extremely serious even for younger people. There are risks involved that need to be weighed when talking about people going back out in public and to work. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision for someone else.

 

[gwraigty]

Good idea on the testing.

For unemployed 65 or older in group 3 there is SS & Medicare. Or they can seek stay at home jobs or move in with friends/relatives.

For group 3 being out in public/shopping same as now, Most would probably stay at home unless they need to go shopping. Or just have groceries delivered.
Don't think it would be mandatory, go to restaurants/wherever at your own risk.
Masks however might be mandatory if you are out in public.

Yes, but you included high-risk folks in group 3. There are high-risk folks who are younger and middle age who don't qualify for SS and Medicare. What about them? I doubt there are plenty of stay-at-home jobs available that would replace one's income, especially with 10M as of the last reported estimate who are unemployed right now.

Move in with friends and relatives? That assumes people have friends and relatives who are ready, willing, and able to take them in and financially support them until there's a vaccine ready. There may be concerns about the risks of taking someone else into one's household, not knowing if the incoming people were practicing adequate social distancing.

There are enough reports on this forum and others that show online grocery ordering isn't working as hoped. I wouldn't want to have to rely on it exclusively based on those reports.

There are some businesses that are closed right now that I'd consider essential eventually. Shoe stores. Clothing stores. Eventually, people will need to buy those things. Not everyone has 100 pairs of shoes/matching outfits - OK, I'm exaggerating to make my point. I take no pleasure in shoe/clothing shopping. It's purely utilitarian for me. I need to try on such items to make sure they fit comfortably and look right.

I'm just trying to point out that it's not nearly as simple as you're trying to make it out to be.

 

[Midpack]

Exactly!

We all would like to know how this situation winds down and ends. In my mind (I could be wrong) it doesn't truly end until we get a vaccine or some sort of preventative medication. We would all love it to just end tomorrow. But there is no magic wand to make that work. And people tend to overlook that this can be extremely serious even for younger people. There are risks involved that need to be weighed when talking about people going back out in public and to work. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision for someone else.

At least you're consistently avoiding the questions your overly simple answers prompt, so I am sure you'll do the same again.

Even when there is a Covid-19 vaccine, who says it will be 100% effective.

I guess should all stay home to avoid the flu too. Even with annual vaccines it kills 36,000 people on average per year. Along with so many other risks we all take on every day without a thought. Presumably once we have a Covid-19 vaccine, we'll still have significant numbers of deaths every year like flu.

 

[Just_Steve]

They can go back to work if they want to take the risk or just retire or sit it out
until there is a vaccine and then go back to work.
They can take the risk & do their own shopping or have it delivered.
Since they are older they can take SS & Medicare.

That is an absurd answer in relation to your initial post.

 

[MBAustin]

[mod hat on]
Can we all try to avoid stress-inducing responses?

Suggestion - after you type a post, pause, close your eyes, breathe deeply for 30 seconds, and then re-read your post. Only then hit "post reply" (or not).

Thank you

[mod hat off]

 

[donheff]

All these rules and classes of people sound unrealistic except as recommendations. People are not going to wear “clear” tags or share their underlying conditions with health police. Governors can and will limit what venues can open when to prevent crowds but once open we will go at our own risk as we always have. I don’t see McDonald’s refusing me service because I have gray hair.

 

[JustCurious]

People are at risk out in public now, about 2 million die for a variety of reasons other than old age in the US every year. Some accidental, some not.

I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.

 

[homestead]

I'm just trying to point out that it's not nearly as simple as you're trying to make it out to be.

You are right, there is no simple solution to all of this mess but we need a plan where the economy can start turning back on. Everyone is going to have to sacrifice some and with any solution there will be some that drop through the cracks. Like what happened in WWII. I think giving people choices is a good way to go.
Seeing a lot of people helping out others in need since this started is encouraging.
My neighbor asked me recently if we were ok. First time ever.

 

[JoeWras]

I agree. We can't shut down our economy and give up our freedoms for an extended period of time because a tiny fraction of the population might die from Covid-19.

I want the economy back as much as anyone else.

I also want the medical care available when I have heart attack symptoms. Or how about just an artificial knee? That's the problem. That tiny fraction, along with small larger fraction of less sick, take over the medical care, which affects all of us.

 

[NameRedacted]

I get it. I generally agree with you. However...

We absolutely need the antibody positive test, so as to model the progress of and characteristics of the disease. But the idea of then giving you a work permit based on that test (and age?) is likely to fail multiple legal challenges in the USA. This essentially puts everyone who is not virus positive into an internment camp. We have a bad history of that. As a society we've worked pretty hard to make work available to all, including those with various challenges. With this one exception, it is out the window.

This could lead to risky behavior, i.e. an attempt to get the virus so one could get the permit.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the legal system comes up against reality. I agree there will be legal challenges but I have to say businesses are being forced to close now, whether they like it or not. Look at Hobby Lobby in Ohio, for example.

 

[gwraigty]

My simple, uneducated guess is that the economy will be gradually opened up when states can no longer afford to pay the massive unemployment bills, regardless of where they are on the curve.

 

[ER Eddie]

Yes, lots of good news lately. I expect it to turn around next week. I'm hoping for an economic rebound in May.

 

[Out of Steam]

To my eyes, the logarithmic graphs look like asymptotic approaches to 1 million recorded cases and 60,000 or so deaths.

The missing piece is the total percentage of people with antibodies to the virus. For it to level off that low suggests that either immunity became widespread quickly or suburban/rural life in the US naturally provided limited opportunities for spreading the virus even before social distancing.

I certainly hope somebody is doing (or will do) population sampling studies.

 

[Amethyst]

Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.

I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.

I just don't see myself mingling with fellow citizens for quite a while. My wife has a compromised immune system and I just cannot risk bringing the bug into our home.

 

[tinlizzy]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247872359312351232.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247719681483509761.html
https://youtu.be/KAn6brpH3-M
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

Sounds like we're just getting started.
Revised reproduction rates R0 5.7 (China) 1st link
R0 5 (Germany) 3rd link
R0 4.7-6.6 (Los Alamos Labs US) 4th link

Highly contagious. Herd immunity >82% if immunity is even possible....2nd link.
~1% mortality rate = ? 2.6 million dead in the US at warp speed with that R0 if we let it run

 

[donheff]

Same here. Husband is itching to get out of the house, but being male/old is a bad combo for COVID-19. And the bug is not going to vanish overnight, regardless of what anybody tells us.

I'm really worried about an already paid-for North Sea cruise coming up in August. I don't think cruising will be safe by then. We can get credit for a future (unwanted) cruise, but will no doubt have to eat the substantial air fare. No matter what, it's going to cost us a lot.

I would'nt get on a cruise for a long time. I doubt they will be running that soon. DW and I have $10K sunk in luxury 8 day raft trip in the Grand Canyon. Permits have been cancelled thru 5/21, a week before we are scheduled. If the permits get cancelled for our trip we will theoretically get a refund. If the trip goes there is no way we are travelling that soon. We will forfeit the $.