How long to wait

[MuirWannabe]

I’ve got a thought experiment/hypothetical. Interested in others thoughts.

How long are you willing to wait for Covid to be conquered before returning to doing things you enjoyed pre-Covid? Things like restaurant dining, travel, seeing family, sports, conferences, stadium events, casinos, etc.

Like most others on this board, I worked hard and looked forward to retirement for years. Now, in my 3rd year, we have this situation. A vaccine is not guaranteed, and the timeline on a vaccine is certainly not known. Therapeutics may be slow in coming, and again for really effective medicines who knows how long. So, this is not the retirement many of us envisioned.

So, I ask again. How long would you wait? Forever, assuming no vaccine or extremely helpful meds? 6 months regardless of vaccines or meds? How long, before you might say ‘to heck with it, I’m gonna start living my full retirement life again and let the chips fall where they may’.

To some extent for me, this seems a bit like market timing. I’m willing to wait another 6 months or so. But what happens if in 6 months we aren’t really any closer to it being conquered. Go all in or wait another 6 months. Pretty soon at that rate I’m not able to do many of the things I hope to do in retirement.

Hope this question makes sense.

 

[stepford]

The whole idea that how long it takes until I get fed up should affect my rational decision making bothers me. At any given time I'll assess the safety of various activities and do a (hopefully) rational risk vs. return analysis. I would hope my annoyance level won't have much impact on this assessment.

Answering a bit more flexibly I would say that if it appears that the COVID situation will persist for multiple years then I may have to reassess how I want to spend the rest of my life. Traveling may become less of a priority and things like building a 2nd home and gardening greater. But again, I hope that these choices are influenced more by the actual state of the world than my willingness/unwillingness to accept it.

 

[REWahoo]

How long are you willing to wait for Covid to be conquered before returning to doing things you enjoyed pre-Covid?

Since returning to pre-Covid activities is likely to result in death or a permanent impairment/disability to someone my age, and my spouse, I can wait a very long time.

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah. I'm ordering all my high dollar treats (sushi grade fish and wagyu beef) off the internet and drinking my premium booze at home. Good thing I know how to cook.

I don't mind take out either although some things are no good to travel like deep fried fish which needs to be eaten hot out the fryer or it gets all greasy and limp.

Got to deliver the step daughter back to UCLA end of August and will be staying in Pismo overnight, maybe 2 nights, but that's it. Minimize exposure.

 

[OldShooter]

We'll wait for a while, hopefully long enough for a vaccine to be proven and available.

But what will be happening to most of us is what the risk management folks call "Normalization of risk." IOW we become so used to taking a risk that we start considering it to be normal and don't recognize it as a risk any more. DW and I are already being slightly less careful even though nothing has really changed except the passage of time.

 

[Ronstar]

I’ve seen someone die who had pneumonia and was violently gasping for breath. I’ll forego restaurants, concerts, sporting events forever to avoid risking that end. It wouldn’t bother me to miss any of these pre-COVID activities anyway. I’ve survived the last 4 months quite well without them.

 

[geeky_grrl]

I'll wait as long as it takes for the risks to go down to a level I will accept.
I don't think it makes sense to put a time limit on it.

I think even if vaccines don't work and no silver bullet therapeutic is found risk levels will eventually drop. The spread will slow down once we either get control of it with public health measures or enough people have immunity it slows down on its own. Other pandemics all eventually ended.

 

[Midpack]

How long are you willing to wait for Covid to be conquered before returning to doing things you enjoyed pre-Covid? Things like restaurant dining, travel, seeing family, sports, conferences, stadium events, casinos, etc.

I’m sure we each have our own plans, and few if any here will change their plans based on what others choose.

We’ve been going to restaurants again for a while. Sometimes eating outdoors, sometimes indoors, sometimes carry out and we’ve walked out of a few restaurants when we didn’t like what we found there.

We’re doing day trips, not staying in hotels yet, but thinking about it. Not ready to fly yet, or anytime soon.

I’ve been sailing and playing golf since May, where distancing is easy thankfully. That’s helped me a lot.

Our season tickets to theater and concerts have all been cancelled or postponed sadly. We have theater tickets in December, we hope to keep them but it will depend on where we are with Covid-19 then, and what precautions the theater puts in place.

BUT everything is subject to change at any time. If we feel at risk, we’ll put the brakes on immediately. Thing could get better sooner, or later - no one knows.

How long until there’s a vaccine is only the beginning. Then how long until it actually becomes widely available, how effective, and how long it’s effective are totally unknown.

I just hope we can get well past this before a new novel virus hits...and that we’re much better prepared for the next one.

 

[RobbieB]

Hehe, here there are no restaurants open (take out only) all concerts are cancelled and no sporting events either. I go to the hardware stores and the grocery and the take out food.

That's it.

 

[brewer12345]

I don't particularly like being around crowds of people, so aside from not being able to travel to see family the lifestyle impacts for me are modest. The bigger issue is the kids and school/activities. And lots of stress and worry, of course.

Take up some new hobbies that don't involve crowded places? I see that fishing licenses are at records in many places, so clearly other people are finding stuff to do. I don't really see the attraction of taking the risk of lifelong health issues or death to go to a concert.

FWIW, I am not real hopeful we will have a safe, effective vaccine widely available any time soon. However, I bet we have effective treatments inside of 6 months. How effective they are, what the side effects and exclusions might be, and how available they are are open questions, but I do think we will find one or more fairly effective treatments sooner rather than later.

 

[travelover]

Since returning to pre-Covid activities is likely to result in death or a permanent impairment/disability to someone my age, and my spouse, I can wait a very long time.

Exactly. Reading about major organ damage, even in survivors gives me a lot more patience.

 

[Mark1]

So, I ask again. How long would you wait? Forever, assuming no vaccine or extremely helpful meds?

To answer this question, many years for lots of things. Maybe forever for some things that aren't truly necessary (e.g. airline travel, etc), but most likely meds get better over time and DW and I will slowly take more exposure risk.

 

[camfused]

@MuirWannabe, I think your prognosis for whether there will be therapeutics and vaccines is not in step with what people like Dr. Francis Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci are saying. They seem to think that it is likely we will have therapeutics soon, and a vaccine maybe early next year. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

From our perspective, once there is a vaccine, and it has been out for a couple of months, then we will get the shots. Once that is complete, we will cautiously resume some of the activities (travel, dining, etc). Until then, we are avoiding those things.

But, I hear ya about this is not what I signed up for when I retired! I want to travel, etc...badly.

 

[harllee]

I think about this question a lot. I am not so worried about myself but my DH has an autoimmune disease and is at higher risk. I look at every activity I do with the consideration that if I do something risky and catch Covid and then bring it home to my husband it may well be a death sentence for him. I cannot live with that risk so I am doing only the necessary things. I do take out from a restaurant but I will not dine inside or out. I love sports but I will just have to watch on TV. I have given up my gym membership. I watch my Church services online. I am assuming these limitations are my way of life until a vaccine and if no vaccine then maybe forever. To me it is worth it to keep my DH healthy.

My thinking is also affected by the fact that I know 2 people that have died of Covid (awful deaths) and 3 people much younger than me who had Covid months ago and are still very sick from it.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Since returning to pre-Covid activities is likely to result in death or a permanent impairment/disability to someone my age, and my spouse, I can wait a very long time.

I’m 58, younger than you. But even for those at a more advanced age, I’ve wondered about this question. Would you wait the rest of your lives to travel? Of see family? I’ve got two new grandkids being born in the next 15 weeks. Would I wait, and potentially never meet them?

My parents are both 88. Should they die at home without seeing family, while hiding out from Covid? Being with family is what they love the most. It’s a tricky question. At least I think it is.

 

[MissMolly]

I would rather spend the rest of my life in my house and yard than 6 feet under or suffer chronic and life long disabilities. I'm willing to wait because I think we will eventually see a light at the end of the tunnel. The only thing I miss is spending time with my family. The travel, the eating out, etc I so far have not missed.

 

[Aerides]

I'm good for a year before I'll find an excuse to get on a plane again I think.

As far as anything else? Outdoors for dining, online for shopping, and socializing only with immediate family.

Meantime redirecting my energy to my home. Getting a pool! Then some redecorating, landscaping to do.

ETA: My parents are 75 ish. They are now very glad for the travel they've managed to do, and love the home the moved into last year. They are quite happy now to stay home, cook, watch movies, go for walks, and wait this out and enjoy each other in their newly smaller world. Socially-distant visits with us and my sister/her fam, we have patio visits.

 

[cbo111]

We don't really mind staying home for the most part. DW has bad asthma and other medical issues that put her at elevated risk. Our dilemma going forward is how to visit the kids and grandkids. They all live about 7 hours by auto, so driving is doable. I guess we will eventually make the drive, rent a hotel room (lysol heavily), and devise a way to interact that will be satisfying to us and the kids, but not too risky. How we will do this is a big question? DW wants to get some kind of plastic suit that will allow her to hug and be close while minimizing the risk of transmission. Any suggestions on how to safely visit would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Midpack]

@MuirWannabe, I think your prognosis for whether there will be therapeutics and vaccines is not in step with what people like Dr. Francis Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci are saying. They seem to think that it is likely we will have therapeutics soon, and a vaccine maybe early next year. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

I haven't heard "likely," I've heard late this year/early next is the hopeful possible best case - and that would be literally unprecedented. But maybe I missed it. And again, even if an effective vaccine is developed,

• that doesn't mean anyone and everyone will be able to get one, could take months (health care workers and some others will be ahead of the general population),
• the threshold for success (according to PBS NewHour) is effective with at least 50% of patients, and
• no one has any idea how long it will be effective, could be a year, longer, or mere months.

Those who are banking on a vaccine likely have a long wait ahead.

An eventual return to economic normalcy largely hinges on vaccines that can prevent infections from the coronavirus. “There is no guarantee...that we will have a safe and effective vaccine, but we are cautiously optimistic,” Fauci testified during a Senate hearing last month.

 

[Aerides]

@MuirWannabe, I think your prognosis for whether there will be therapeutics and vaccines is not in step with what people like Dr. Francis Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci are saying. They seem to think that it is likely we will have therapeutics soon, and a vaccine maybe early next year. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

That is what is being said.

I am generally not that skeptical, but I'm in the "yeah sounds good, will believe it when I see" camp. So I'm not pinning my hopes on anything panning out on the vaccine front. I do think therapeutics will evolve and incrementally improve, so part of my wait-it-out strategy includes, A) being late to the crowded-hospital-party, and, B) getting better meds If I do end up there.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Yea, I’m not in the predicting business about vaccines or meds. My question was simply, how long would you wait for it?

Thanks for the replies so far. Most seem to be saying they’d basically wait forever if necessary. My answer is different. I’m not willing to wait forever. Maybe another 6- 12 months. But at some point I’m gonna say no more. And be willing to carry on living my retirement life with much more risk I guess. That is, if I have a choice. Things still have to be open to enjoy them. And people have to be willing to see you.

 

[brewer12345]

Yea, I’m not in the predicting business about vaccines or meds. My question was simply, how long would you wait for it?

Thanks for the replies so far. Most seem to be saying they’d basically wait forever if necessary. My answer is different. I’m not willing to wait forever. Maybe another 6- 12 months. But at some point I’m gonna say no more. And be willing to carry on living my retirement life with much more risk I guess. That is, if I have a choice. Things still have to be open to enjoy them. And people have to be willing to see you.

OK, a different choice than I will make, but since that is what you are thinking it begs a question: what additional things that you would like to do can happen with a modest increase in risk? Concerts, maybe not. Travel of some kind maybe possible. Maybe start thinking about what you can start doing that you miss that means a small increase in risk and leave the really risky stuff out.

I can tell you that if we are still in crazy pandemic mode by next spring, I may find a guided hog hunt in Oklahoma where I can haul the camper. Still get to do what I want, but cut the risk down by driving, staying in the trailer, etc.

 

[MuirWannabe]

OK, a different choice than I will make, but since that is what you are thinking it begs a question: what additional things that you would like to do can happen with a modest increase in risk? Concerts, maybe not. Travel of some kind maybe possible. Maybe start thinking about what you can start doing that you miss that means a small increase in risk and leave the really risky stuff out.



I can tell you that if we are still in crazy pandemic mode by next spring, I may find a guided hog hunt in Oklahoma where I can haul the camper. Still get to do what I want, but cut the risk down by driving, staying in the trailer, etc.

Travel for sure would be on my list. Both domestic and international. I’m section hiking the PCT, and would return for a long distance hike there. Visiting family, including my 88 year old parents. Eating in restaurants for sure. In person church services at our mega church.

I enjoy playing the dice, but visiting a casino in Vegas probably would stay off my list. Attending concerts or sporting events stay off the list. I’m disillusioned with sports now anyway. Always loved sports for the escape. Now, to watch sports, is like watching the news. That’ll stay off my list.

Those are my thoughts thus far.

 

[MRG]

We are eating out outdoors that will end at some point. Hopefully after October when tourists leave we will venture out more. Until then no way. Our county went from 7 cases to 50, half of those are from out of the area. Other than dining in the outdoors our life has been the same since March.

 

[Midpack]

Dr. Anthony Fauci: Coronavirus will never be eradicated

In the same way the flu will never be eradicated...buckle up.