Not So Fast-Here We Go Again

[ivinsfan]

Hence, we need to look at hospitalization numbers which have increased for some States. We are not out of the wood, far from it. People need to take this into their own hands and do the smart thing. Too many of us are totally ignoring precautions, CDC guidelines, etc.. I go by a popular fruit stand every day and the employees are not wearing masks. It will be a matter of time before they get infected. My county has the most infections in the Bay Area and it is not decreasing.

I think the key number will be ICU patients and deaths not so much hospitalization.

 

[explanade]

If you get hospitalized, you're reached a relatively serious state haven't you?

Most states won't let you just walk in if you suspect you have the infection.

You have to have symptoms, like prolonged fever and shortness of breath, difficulty breathing.

These are all symptoms which can lead to worse things. At that point, people would want to be tested.

 

[gwraigty]

We're not sending people with the virus to nursing homes anymore - I don't think.

One local nursing home is now isolating new admissions.

Universal coronavirus testing detects asymptomatic patients at O'Neill Healthcare North Ridgeville

Part of O’Neill Healthcare’s joint response with University Hospitals and the Cleveland Clinic included the creation of a designated COVID-19 wing where all residents who have tested positive or are awaiting test results are relocated.

An observation wing has been created where newly admitted residents are isolated for two weeks until cleared by Wolf.

I think the key number will be ICU patients and deaths not so much hospitalization.

+1

 

[ivinsfan]

If you get hospitalized, you're reached a relatively serious state haven't you?

Most states won't let you just walk in if you suspect you have the infection.

You have to have symptoms, like prolonged fever and shortness of breath, difficulty breathing.

These are all symptoms which can lead to worse things. At that point, people would want to be tested.

Well no a lot of states have greatly expanded testing so you can get a test if you feel a little off or have been exposed to someone positive.

Being in hospital for a day or two in not the same as being in the ICU or on a vent for weeks, or dying..the overall picture of more effective treatment or a lessening in total severity will come from ICU and death numbers.

 

[brewer12345]

Well no a lot of states have greatly expanded testing so you can get a test if you feel a little off or have been exposed to someone positive.

Being in hospital for a day or two in not the same as being in the ICU or on a vent for weeks, or dying..the overall picture of more effective treatment or a lessening in total severity will come from ICU and death numbers.

I think hospitalizations are a more important measure. Once the hospitals get overwhelmed, mortality rates rise and the healthcare system crumbles under the weight of covid cases and can't help non-covid cases. Bad stuff for the general population.

 

[ivinsfan]

I think hospitalizations are a more important measure. Once the hospitals get overwhelmed, mortality rates rise and the healthcare system crumbles under the weight of covid cases and can't help non-covid cases. Bad stuff for the general population.

OK well I guess we disagree on that metric... one could argue that if the hospitals and ICU's are not already full someone with a lesser degree of COVID might be admitted, from what I understand in NY many ICU beds were tied up for weeks with patients on vents so one person might be on a vent 30 days before they died.

 

[brewer12345]

Machts nicht, I suppose. I will not be going out and about anyway.

 

[ivinsfan]

Machts nicht, I suppose. I will not be going out and about anyway.

Me either, not eating out and doing online grocery ATM and for the foreseeable future, but we can't exist in this state forever..

 

[Leo1277]

I think hospitalizations are a more important measure. Once the hospitals get overwhelmed, mortality rates rise and the healthcare system crumbles under the weight of covid cases and can't help non-covid cases. Bad stuff for the general population.

That is true, the hospitalization are important to measure the general load of the health care system.

But there are a few other reasons they are useful: first of all, they provide a rather direct measure of the status of infections (more precisely, the number of infections say 7-10-14 days earlier), since it's safe to assume that the fraction of infected that need to go to the hospital stays constant. So, if the hospitalizations increase by a certain percentage, you had that same percentage rise in infections a few days earlier.

Second, the changes in ICU admissions may also be a measure of changes in infections, if we assume that the fraction of ICU admissions to hospital admissions stays constant. But since the ICU admissions are a much smaller number, there is more statistical noise. Furthermore, there is less reliable and frequent reporting on ICU numbers than on hospitalizations from what I have seen.

And finally, there are death numbers. These have yet a time delay compared to ICU admissions, and yet more to hospital admissions, but their reporting is usually rather reliable (except where the cause of deaths is assigned incorrectly).

 

[audreyh1]

And let's not forget that we are testing many more people now than we were before...more testing leads to more confirmed cases.

That’s why people are paying attention to trends in the percentage of people testing positive, because if it is going up dramatically, as it is in some states, rather than dropping, you have a problem and it’s not simply due to more testing.

 

[ivinsfan]

That’s why people are paying attention to trends in the percentage of people testing positive, because if it is going up dramatically as it is in some states, rather than dropping, you have a problem and it’s not simply due to more testing.

Our state had a rather large percentage spike..almost completely due to meatpacking plants..wondering if this is happening in the states with large upticks

 

[explanade]

Large clusters can make state numbers appear to be trending badly.

Look at Beijing, they've found 79 infections in a large market and they're testing thousands of people, closing schools.

79 is a small number for a city as big as Beijing but from their POV, they haven't had any new cases in almost 2 months until this breakout.

In a lot of places, these clusters of infections are occurring with black or Hispanic communities. You wonder if some states will try to stop them because they have designated meat processing plants as essential services so the workers must show up and work or lose their jobs.

And these plants are not trying to spread the workers apart from each other or trying to improve air circulation because these plants have to have a lot of workers in order to produce the output they want.

 

[gerntz]

But I don’t think the averaged national statistics are particularly useful. I think it’s far more useful to look at states numbers, and clearly there are numerous states with increasing infections, increasing hospitalizations, higher percentages testing positive. These are on their way to major outbreaks again. There is nothing really to stop it now other than individual behavior.

You're saying that states with previous major outbreaks are having 2nd waves or are the ones with big increases now really just getting into their first major wave? If latter, I think nationwide applies. If former, I agree.

 

[audreyh1]

You're saying that states with previous major outbreaks are having 2nd waves or are the ones with big increases now really just getting into their first major wave? If latter, I think nationwide applies. If former, I agree.

Both really. Some states did have a large first wave, but then shutdowns drastically reduced their infection spread, and are now seeing the beginnings of what looks like a much smaller second wave. However, many states are still experiencing their first wave which is getting worse. The national statistics mask this, because infection rates have dropped so drastically in places that had a huge initial outbreaks like the New England states, but other states not badly hit initially, are now experiencing an acceleration of cases, % testing positive, and hospitalizations.

 

[harllee]

Here in North Carolina we are still in our first wave--our numbers have never leveled out, it has been a steady climb since the start and now the climb is getting steeper.

 

[Golden sunsets]

But I don’t think the averaged national statistics are particularly useful. I think it’s far more useful to look at states numbers, and clearly there are numerous states with increasing infections, increasing hospitalizations, higher percentages testing positive. These are on their way to major outbreaks again. There is nothing really to stop it now other than individual behavior.

+1000. It irks me to no end when people point to the decline in deaths or cases for the entire country, when that graph is largely influenced by the states that were the first to get hit and thanks to the extended total lock down in NY/NJ/CN/MA have broken the back of the illness in the northeast. If you extract those large numbers from the charts the numbers do not look good.

 

[Golden sunsets]

And let's not forget that we are testing many more people now than we were before...more testing leads to more confirmed cases.

Infection rates are up though, so that fact is of no comfort.

 

[Leo1277]

But I don’t think the averaged national statistics are particularly useful. I think it’s far more useful to look at states numbers, and clearly there are numerous states with increasing infections, increasing hospitalizations, higher percentages testing positive. These are on their way to major outbreaks again. There is nothing really to stop it now other than individual behavior.

+1000. It irks me to no end when people point to the decline in deaths or cases for the entire country, when that graph is largely influenced by the states that were the first to get hit and thanks to the extended total lock down in NY/NJ/CN/MA have broken the back of the illness in the northeast. If you extract those large numbers from the charts the numbers do not look good.

I totally agree with both of you. Very well formulated, Golden Sunsets.

 

[Aerides]

Florida had a pretty competitive first "wave", and then things looked good. So we reopened. Now, our new case numbers are well above the first wave.

Yes, we have more tests, but our positivity rate is going up too. Hospitalizations aren't up yet, but let's see how we look this time next month.

 

[brewer12345]

+1000. It irks me to no end when people point to the decline in deaths or cases for the entire country, when that graph is largely influenced by the states that were the first to get hit and thanks to the extended total lock down in NY/NJ/CN/MA have broken the back of the illness in the northeast. If you extract those large numbers from the charts the numbers do not look good.

And these are the same people who wanted to extract the northeast numbers when they made the national stats look bad.

 

[PatrickA5]

Greetings from Tulsa. Record Covid cases almost every day. Large demonstration scheduled for Friday. Trump rally on Saturday. General disdain for masks and social distancing. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Leo1277]

It's simply amazing how easily this virus spreads, and hence, how important distancing measures are: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/group-tests-positive-florida-bar/index.html

A group of 16 friends all tested positive for coronavirus after a night out at a recently reopened Florida bar. Three members of the group, who spoke to CNN's Chris Cuomo Tuesday, said they want to remind the public that the pandemic is not over yet. "We want to raise awareness and get ahead of it," Kat Layton told Cuomo. "We want to tell people it's really not ready for what we thought it was ready for, it's too soon."The group had gathered for a friend's birthday, they said. The bar was crowded, and no one was wearing masks.

 

[Sojourner]

It's simply amazing how easily this virus spreads, and hence, how important distancing measures are: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/group-tests-positive-florida-bar/index.html

A group of 16 friends all tested positive for coronavirus after a night out at a recently reopened Florida bar. Three members of the group, who spoke to CNN's Chris Cuomo Tuesday, said they want to remind the public that the pandemic is not over yet. "We want to raise awareness and get ahead of it," Kat Layton told Cuomo. "We want to tell people it's really not ready for what we thought it was ready for, it's too soon."The group had gathered for a friend's birthday, they said. The bar was crowded, and no one was wearing masks.

It might sound callous, but anyone who would go to a crowded bar in Florida with a bunch of friends, spend several hours talking and laughing in close quarters while not wearing masks, and expect NOT to be at great risk for contracting Covid-19 is living in a fool's paradise. It's difficult to understand how people can be so disconnected from the most basic, widespread, readily available knowledge about how easily this virus spreads. It's as if they are living on a different planet, almost.

 

[RobbieB]

Bar's open dude, lets party!

 

[Leo1277]

It might sound callous, but anyone who would go to a crowded bar in Florida with a bunch of friends, spend several hours talking and laughing in close quarters while not wearing masks, and expect NOT to be at great risk for contracting Covid-19 is living in a fool's paradise. It's difficult to understand how people can be so disconnected from the most basic, widespread, readily available knowledge about how easily this virus spreads. It's as if they are living on a different planet, almost.

Well, yes; but they are living on the same planet as all the other visitors to this bar, and the bar owner, and the authorities that let this bar and all the others open.

We as a society set up regulations in order to guide individuals about what behavior is acceptable and prudent, and what isn't, based on the information available to the experts. This is done so that not everyone has to make such a judgment on their own, which is much harder for an individual than for a trained professional who does that all day long and has access to much more information. Consider smoking: we have to rely on society to guide us along what is smart and what isn't, we can't wait to decide to not take up smoking until we see enough folks in our own circle die from lung cancer.

While I personally would surely not have gone to this bar, and many of the readers on this thread likely would not have either, I think one cannot put the bulk of the blame on a few folks who think the authorities are giving us the right guidance and act only based on that.