Poll: Would you get vaccinated in 2021 for travel?

[SpinDoctorTX]

A discussion this week with a doctor yielded this. He thinks the proposed first vaccine will be the two shot one and have about a 50% protection and a very limited protection measured in months.

[MOD EDIT] We are used to being somewhere either domesticity or internationally.

Most countries have a very low trust of the US right now. Vaccine or not it may be another year or more before travel becomes easy.

I keep getting emails from the Dublin Consulate (re a fully refunded trip thankfully). We aren't welcome there now, and won't be for a while I suspect. We're looking so forward to my Mom coming in November. That's when we have a cat sitter and can travel- our aging cat is high maint. now & she was absolutely mental when we had a stranger taking care of her last May- for only 5 days. So, starting mid Nov - mid Feb., we plan to drive places- a lot of them- all in TX. Our neighboring states don't want us travelling there either.

As others have mentioned, with proper precautions we can keep the risk very low. We've been to the coast (daytrips only) almost every week. We know where all our regular pitstops are (and buy something from the convenience store since they are kind enough to share their facilities). We've found restaurants that offer outside seating, or we go to parks to eat takeout.

DH gets tested for covid monthly at oncologist, & I donate platelets every month- I get a free test for anti-bodies with each donation- we are all clear & have no plans to mess that up.

 

[Katsmeow]

I didn't respond to the poll because none of the answers applied. Basically a desire to travel will play no part in whether I take a vaccine. I am doubtful that I would feel comfortable traveling internationally for at least a year or longer from now (I don't feel comfortable domestically either).

I would certainly hope that by a year from now a safe, effective vaccine will have gone through all testing. Assuming that has occurred and the scientific consensus is positive then I would be vaccinated. My assumption is that all of those things are likely to happen although I would expect that might fall more into early 2021 than 2020. But, we'll see.

If the vaccine is safe and effective then I will be vaccinated whether I travel or not. If there is legitimate questions at to safety or effectiveness then I won't be vaccinated yet and wanting to travel somewhere wouldn't change my mind.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

Testing requirements

The other problem is accepting tests done elsewhere. There is quite a bit of fraud and poor testing so many countries (Hungary is one example) will only accept tests done locally and under firm country control. Even with a negative test they require 14 day quarantine and there are daily checks by the police with a massive 500,000 HUF fine ($1,600) should you not be found at home at any check. Hungary is clearly in the second wave now and is seeing a dramatic rise in positive tests (not clinically ill yet) as they allowed tourism over the summer. My small town of 20,000 alone has over 100 cases now. This is new as before the majority of the cases were in Budapest and we had almost zero in our area. So, masks are back in force in all public spaces now that the tourist season has ended. The waits on the autoroutes at the borders now run over 4 hours. So, this is now a big problem for any travel within Europe. Some countries are not accepting any foreigners at all such as Vietnam and Thailand regardless of tests.

Europe has implemented a red/green code for countries that they will accept people from. But, each country establishes their own policy. People coming from countries at high risk are (usually) in the red category and no one coming from these countries (except citizens of the receiving country) are allowed. This is what is happening now. So, entering Hungary is now only permitted for Hungarian citizens or foreigners with permanent resident visas. I am unsure what the policies are for other EU countries but basically no one is travelling anymore at all. Trucks, of course, are being handled differently.

As always there are two separate aspects to this pandemic. The first is the disease and how it affects populations at risk and what countries do to slow down the curve so the medical system is not overwhelmed. Establishing worldwide immunity is an assumption which may be a bad assumption as we have verified re-infections which indicates some people will never be immune. This bodes poorly for any vaccine so it may come down to establishing immunity in a subpopulation and a rate of 35% or higher of immunized people may shut down the transmission as long as the immunity persists. We already know the immunity is relatively short lived so it may require a vaccination every year. The virus also mutates so it could end up like the flu with a new vaccine every year.

The second is maintaining the economy and so far these policies are diametrically opposed. This is having a dramatic effect on Capitalism. Richard Wolf had a good video comparing the current problems to the great Black Plague of the 14th century that ended feudalism. Capitalism is just another form of feudalism and suffers from similar risks if profits are not maintained. Countries are only surviving by printing massive amounts of money and so far everyone is doing it so across the board it is more or less equally distributed at a country level (but unequally distributed in the socioeconomic strata) so doesn't (so far) affect inflation or currency. This is a form of socialism but how long can it be kept up is anyone's guess. It is clear that no country will ever pay off any of the debt accrued through this process. Some countries (Russia and China) haven't done it and are at an advantage. So, if this pandemic continues too long we may see shift in power as well as in socio-political ideologies. The modified capitalism-communism system (as seen in China and Vietnam) may be at an advantage. It is very interesting to observe. I am watching the US, Sweden and China and how they are handling this pandemic with great interest and am curious to see how it turns out after a couple of years. This is the most unstable the world has been in my lifetime. Add in the political instability in the US plus the global warming problems coupled with mass migrations and it is going to continue to get more complicated. The pandemic in many ways is the black swan event that has been forecasted. Yet, the markets remain high? Something is going to have to give soon. The virus may turn out to be the least of our problems.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

Survey doesn't fit all situations

Katsmeow - I agree with you. In my case I would be one of the first to get it regardless of safety testing. I wouldn't mind being a member of the Phase III clinical trials.

However, I have the experience of working in US military high consequence biocontainment labs where I had to receive 21 separate vaccinations only 2 of which were licensed. Many were attenuated live vaccines and were almost as bad as the disease. Some biothreat agents I worked on have no vaccine and no treatment so any exposure meant death. COVID-19 is a lot less deadly than those so I am not all that concerned about a vaccine. I used adenovirus as a vector myself in several studies so am not overly worried about that as well. I know I was infected by my own viral vector agents as this work was only done at ABSL-2 levels. I experienced no issues at all with any vaccines (except several of the various live attenuated equine encephalitis vaccines which gave me a monster headache for weeks). It was all done "voluntarily" although it was career suicide to refuse. The Army sent me for 4 years to get my PhD at an Ivy League school with the sole goal to put me to work researching vaccines and biothreat agents. So, refusing would be tantamount to disobeying orders even though it was supposedly voluntary. They want their pound of flesh back.

However, a population has many potential risks to sub-populations which are difficult to identify until a given vaccine (or even medication) is tested in all sub-groups (age, sex, pregnancy, genetics, and concurrent illness and combined therapeutics). This generally happens once it gets released to general use by reports of adverse events. If a particular sub-population is identified as being at a high risk of deleterious side effects then they are specifically excluded by modifying the licensure. For example, adenovirus has killed a small number of people and those with immune deficiencies (such as caused by HIV, age (infants and elderly), or chemotherapy etc.) will be at high risk for any live vaccine so they will be excluded early. Other groups might be more difficult to identify such as pregnancy or ethnic/genetic issues. It is not easy to analyze this data and often takes years. Take the example of the drugs for osteoporosis which resulted in dead jaw syndrome many years later when dental implants were attempted resulting in complete loss of the lower jaw and sometimes death.

 

[Sunset]

The huge question as far as travel is concerned is which vaccines will be acceptable in what countries......

+1
I had not thought about it, but for sure there will be some countries with a vaccine that will not be considered good enough by some others.

Here, the CDC/FDA wouldn't accept other countries covid-19 test kits, instead we had to make our own, and flubbed the first set, delaying our ability by months.
That was simply for a test.

I'm sure a vaccine will have similar rules, otherwise we could be accepting the Russian one now...

 

[LastOfTheBoomers]

I would get the Vaccine - by the time I would be eligible- a few million would have gotten it.
There was a story - maybe I read it here - that when the swine flu vaccine came out - older people said no to it and to “give it to my grandkids”
So it might be more available to the under 60 crowd sooner based on demand.

Also - I’ve been also thinking about how those vaccinated will “show off their status” a wrist band with a snap in digit showing first and second shots? A lapel pin? Necklace? I just know that “vaccine shaming will become a real thing”

 

[Nemo2]

Also - I’ve been also thinking about how those vaccinated will “show off their status” a wrist band with a snap in digit showing first and second shots? A lapel pin? Necklace?

 

[sengsational]

Also - I’ve been also thinking about how those vaccinated will “show off their status” a wrist band with a snap in digit showing first and second shots? A lapel pin? Necklace? I just know that “vaccine shaming will become a real thing”

More likely a yellow card tucked into your passport (the way we've always done it).

 

[Nemo2]

More likely a yellow card tucked into your passport (the way we've always done it).

I'd almost forgotten about them.....if I haven't thrown them out I probably have a few laying around somewhere.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

WHO had revealed a plan for distribution of vaccines across the world

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-distribute-covid-19-vaccine-challenges-await

A fair distribution plan had been laid out but sadly the US is not a party to this agreement. So, logically this will become the standard for vaccinations and likely will be used for travel assurances across borders. Notably China and the US are not agreeable to the plan so probably will be left out. The US is because financial greed with US pharmaceutical companies envisioning massive corporate profits and China is just being recalcitrant. It is still early so this will gain more shape as it progresses and vaccine candidates work their way through the process. Note: Putin in his speech yesterday stated categorically that the Russian Sputnik V vaccine will be manufactured without profit and be freely distributed to all nations. The distribution plan not is laid out that each nation will receive doses proportional to their population to be 3% in the first hase for use by medical staff. The second phase will be for those at high risk (elderly) and co-morbidities. Then on down the line as more supplies become available.

The US will distribute based on financial or political issues. The rich and/or powerful will get it first then the rest based on ability to pay. It doesn't matter one whit which party is in control.

How these marry up for cross-border policies is anyone's guess. But, I assume the WHO system will be accepted in all countries party to the agreement which is growing daily. I have hopes the US will regain some sanity but I fear that the US oligarchs will not be benevolent to the US subjects.