Post Vaccination Behavior

[RetireeRobert]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan Got it, the like the vaccine mixing trials Alan is helping with in the UK. Didn't his doctor have any way to help him get this, the Doctor is one that brought it up. Someone on another thread talking about giving blood and showing Covid antibodies but I don't remember the time span after they got the vaccine.

That was me, I am a regular blood donor. The first time Red Cross showed me as reactive for Covid antibodies was when I donated blood about three weeks after my second dose of Pfizer vaccine.

I have donated twice again since then, and each of my subsequent blood donations also showed me as reactive for Covid antibodies. My latest blood donation to do so was recently, between three and four months after my second Pfizer dose.

[jcfradio]

I think that this thread is going down the wrong rabbit hole in assuming that there was fraud. No one has ever said that just because you were vaccinated for COVID that you could never get the disease]; no vaccine is 100% effective. It was just that you would be less likely to get severely sick or be highly transmissable as you would be if you werent vaccinated.

That is one of my big concerns, which is borne out in this thread. You could be vaccinated and still get the virus but be at a much reduced risk of hospitalization and transmission. However, if you were on a cruise it would be you who would be kicked off the cruise to protect those who are not (or who won't) be vaccinated. It will be interesting to see how this gets dealt with as more people get vaccinated. What freedoms do I give up when I have done things to be safe to protect those who won't be bothered.

[Calico]

Given the statistically small numbers of vaccinated folks with "breakthrough" cases of Covid, the chances that two people sharing a cabin just happened to both come down with breakthrough cases are slim to none.

Someone lied.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcfradio I think that this thread is going down the wrong rabbit hole in assuming that there was fraud. No one has ever said that just because you were vaccinated for COVID that you could never get the disease]; no vaccine is 100% effective. It was just that you would be less likely to get severely sick or be highly transmissable as you would be if you werent vaccinated. That is one of my big concerns, which is borne out in this thread. You could be vaccinated and still get the virus but be at a much reduced risk of hospitalization and transmission. However, if you were on a cruise it would be you who would be kicked off the cruise to protect those who are not (or who won't) be vaccinated. It will be interesting to see how this gets dealt with as more people get vaccinated. What freedoms do I give up when I have done things to be safe to protect those who won't be bothered.

Well, let's try to put some numbers to this. As I mentioned in another thread
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...tml#post261892, during the Pfizer trials, over a period of 2 months, 8/21,270 or 0.04% of vaccinated people caught Covid.

Recall that for this cruise, people were required to be vaccinated and to present a negative covid test result from a test not more than 72 hours before boarding. Let's assume that a covid test cannot detect the virus unless you have been infected for two days (maybe someone has better data). So assume there is a five day window during which these two people could have caught Covid before they boarded the ship. If the probability of a person catching Covid was .0004 over 60 days, then it is likely 5/60 x .0004 or .0000333 over 5 days. (I would argue that it is less, since during the Pfizer trial, no one else but the trial participants was vaccinated).

Now, what is the probability of any two vaccinated people both catching covid. Well, you square the probability for 1. So the odds are .0000333 x .0000333 = 1.11111 x 10E-9 or about 1 in a billion. And, assuming that there are 500 passengers, two to a room, what is the probability that any two people were in the same cabin? 1 in 499.

So if we further divide by 499, the probability that there were two vaccinated people with an undetected breakthrough infection in the same cabin (as the facts were reported), that is 2.2267 10E-12. That's odds of about 2 per trillion or 1 in 500 billion of occurring.

Now, you tell me, what are the odds that a couple who really wanted to go on that cruise lied about their vaccination status, their test status or both?

[mystang52]

Pre COVID when DW and I would go out for dinner we preferred sitting at the bar. Today, for first time since the lockdown, we went to our local Outback Restaurant (we were regulars there in the past) and again sat indoors at the bar. We loved it! "Our" bartender was there and we had a great catching-up discussion.
The physical set-up was a pleasant surprise: plastic dividers, which gave us an extra sense of comfort. Of course, as is our wont, we were there early. So, 4PM on a Saturday not many other customers were there, yet. We intend to go back. This was a nice emotional lift.

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calico Given the statistically small numbers of vaccinated folks with "breakthrough" cases of Covid, the chances that two people sharing a cabin just happened to both come down with breakthrough cases are slim to none. Someone lied.

I think it is very possible that 2 people sharing a small cabin could both have Covid "breakthrough" infections even though they are vaccinated. One of them would have gotten Covid first and then infected the other. The possibility is much higher if one or both are immune compromised. My DH is immune compromised, he and I both are vaccinated but his doctor has warned both of us that if I had a breakthrough infection I could easily give it to him because the vaccine is not very effective for immune compromised people.

Also not too long ago I read that 9 members of the NY Yankees baseball team tested positive for Covid even though all 9 had been vaccinated. All but one were asymptomatic, one had mild symptoms.

[explanade]

Point is, the probability of getting a breakthrough infection is much lower than the probability of not getting one.

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade Point is, the probability of getting a breakthrough infection is much lower than the probability of not getting one.

Very true but everyone seems to think that the 2 people on the cruise ship lied about having the vaccine. I think it is more likely that they are an elderly couple, maybe in their 80s and one or both of them are immune compromised so that the vaccine was not very effective. The vaccines are good but they are not effective for everyone.

[Another Reader]

My guess is this is the first of many such scenarios. The vaccines are 95 percent effective against serious disease. Not 95 percent effective against infection. The two cruise ship scenarios as described are fairly plausible. Will be interesting to see if there are efforts to contact trace for these cases.

The other concern is Long Covid. Long Covid was never studied as an outcome when defining vaccine efficacy. We will have to wait to see if Long Covid cases occur in vaccinated individuals that are infected.

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee I think it is very possible that 2 people sharing a small cabin could both have Covid "breakthrough" infections even though they are vaccinated. One of them would have gotten Covid first and then infected the other. The possibility is much higher if one or both are immune compromised. My DH is immune compromised, he and I both are vaccinated but his doctor has warned both of us that if I had a breakthrough infection I could easily give it to him because the vaccine is not very effective for immune compromised people. Also not too long ago I read that 9 members of the NY Yankees baseball team tested positive for Covid even though all 9 had been vaccinated. All but one were asymptomatic, one had mild symptoms.

So many possibilities, I wonder what kind of documentation is needed for a cruise ship. Do they take your word for it?



I'm sad and puzzled today. A 53 YO woman who grew up in our church has died from Covid. She had severe (think every joint in her body replaced) arthritis and obviously was immune compromised. It took six weeks but Covid killed her.



Now I wonder if she got vaccinated. I thought maybe she had a breakthrough case but then her husband got Covid, so the odds of both having breakthrough cases seem pretty small. The husband has a bad case of Covid and he ended up in the hospital as well.



Our county has barely moved the needle at 50% and I'd wager my church is probably closer to 25, no face covering either. It's really made me question if I want to continue membership there. I think I might have a one on one with my pastor because right now I have a lot of negative thoughts about my fellow church members.

[anethum]

I'm not sure if this article is behind a paywall or not. An analysis shows the areas with low vaccination rates are seeing an increase in covid cases, whereas highly vaccinated areas see rates dropping. It's not surprising, of course, but I found it interesting that there has been a sudden divergence in the past 10 days.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...pandemic-guide

"States with higher vaccination rates now have markedly fewer coronavirus cases, as infections are dropping in places where most residents have been immunized and are rising in many places people have not, a Washington Post analysis has found."

"States with lower vaccination also have significantly higher hospitalization rates, The Post found."

"As recently as 10 days ago, vaccination rates did not predict a difference in coronavirus cases, but immunization rates have diverged, and case counts in the highly vaccinated states are dropping quickly."

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan So many possibilities, I wonder what kind of documentation is needed for a cruise ship. Do they take your word for it? I'm sad and puzzled today. A 53 YO woman who grew up in our church has died from Covid. She had severe (think every joint in her body replaced) arthritis and obviously was immune compromised. It took six weeks but Covid killed her. Now I wonder if she got vaccinated. I thought maybe she had a breakthrough case but then her husband got Covid, so the odds of both having breakthrough cases seem pretty small. The husband has a bad case of Covid and he ended up in the hospital as well. Our county has barely moved the needle at 50% and I'd wager my church is probably closer to 25, no face covering either. It's really made me question if I want to continue membership there. I think I might have a one on one with my pastor because right now I have a lot of negative thoughts about my fellow church members.

I bet the 53 year old lady had rheumatoid arthritis which is an autoimmune disease which would make her more susceptible to Covid and would mean the vaccine would be less effective for her. So she like my DH could have had the vaccine and still had a break through infection. However, the fact that her husband also had a severe case of Covid may mean that at least he was not vaccinated. My DH's doctor says the possibility of a break through infection for an immune compromised vaccinated patient is most likely one of these scenarios-- either he is exposed out in public to Covid from an unvaccinated person or I am exposed to Covid from an unvaccinated person, then I have an asymptomatic case and pass it on to DH. We are trying hard to prevent both scenarios.

I am sorry about your Church, I would definitely speak to the pastor. At my Church we are still having outdoor services where you stay in socially distanced circles and keep your mask on except when you are in your circle. I would bet that most of the adults in my Church are vaccinated but we have a lot of children under 12 who cannot be vaccinated yet.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Another Reader My guess is this is the first of many such scenarios. The vaccines are 95 percent effective against serious disease. Not 95 percent effective against infection. The two cruise ship scenarios as described are fairly plausible. Will be interesting to see if there are efforts to contact trace for these cases. The other concern is Long Covid. Long Covid was never studied as an outcome when defining vaccine efficacy. We will have to wait to see if Long Covid cases occur in vaccinated individuals that are infected.

I think it was 95% effective against symptomatic disease, not more serious disease.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan I'm sad and puzzled today. A 53 YO woman who grew up in our church has died from Covid. She had severe (think every joint in her body replaced) arthritis and obviously was immune compromised. It took six weeks but Covid killed her. Now I wonder if she got vaccinated. I thought maybe she had a breakthrough case but then her husband got Covid, so the odds of both having breakthrough cases seem pretty small. The husband has a bad case of Covid and he ended up in the hospital as well. Our county has barely moved the needle at 50% and I'd wager my church is probably closer to 25, no face covering either. It's really made me question if I want to continue membership there. I think I might have a one on one with my pastor because right now I have a lot of negative thoughts about my fellow church members.

Wow, that is very sad, and frustrating for you as a member of the congregation. I can see the fact that the woman suffering from arthritis may have definitely be imunocompromised due to medications and it may not have made a difference vaccinated or not. But the husband getting very serious disease makes me suspect that he was not vaccinated.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by anethum "States with lower vaccination also have significantly higher hospitalization rates, The Post found." "As recently as 10 days ago, vaccination rates did not predict a difference in coronavirus cases, but immunization rates have diverged, and case counts in the highly vaccinated states are dropping quickly."

As mentioned earlier by myself and others, its the unvaccinated who are still driving Covid infections. In my county 97% of the reported cases are among un-vaccinated people. Two months ago there was a reason for that since many people did not qualify for the shots. Today, anyone who wants a shot can get it. To each his/her own.

[harllee]

Just read that in Vermont 80% of eligible people have been vaccinated. Maybe that is where DH and I should move.

[ExFlyBoy5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrsHaloFIRE I dont think there will ever be a scenario when a cruise company will guarantee you can get back home. They can put you off pretty easily (friend hurt her ankle, was not considered stable, and was thrown off our first port of call in Ketchikan Alaska to find her own way back home on her own dime, prepaid cruise fare be damned. land excursions could not be cancelled either as they were an exception. they sent her on her own dime via ambulance to the local hospital to be examined. and then she had to make a 2 day flight journey back home. you dont just pop out of ketchikan on a whim and cross the country) One word from the medical officer that they cannot support your needs (whatever they are) and your butt is off for "your safety"

My Mom had an emergency medical episode on a ship back in 1996. It was quite the pain to get her off the ship and back to Miami. They couldn't dock the ship (Dominican Republic if I recall) and it was too windy for helicopter pickup so they had to take a tug boat out to get her off...all while doing CPR. There was then the ambulance trip to the airport (and multiple places where my Dad had to pay off someone to keep going) where they were able to get a air ambulance to MIA. Absolute nightmare...but she survived. Thankfully, most of the bills were paid through the trip insurance.

[jim584672]

NY just removed all restrictions since we hit 70%.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 NY just removed all restrictions since we hit 70%.

Congrats!

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee Just read that in Vermont 80% of eligible people have been vaccinated. Maybe that is where DH and I should move.

Come to Connecticut. 75% of all eligible people have received at least one shot and 71% are fully vaccinated. And it's more tolerable here in the winter.