Projections for Peak Dates Corona Virus for Each State

[JoeWras]

The agents of plentiful clicks and bad news have also noticed the IHME models are getting optimistic. So, why not throw some water on it? They have a different view for NC, with numbers much higher, even if social distancing as is stays in place.

https://abc11.com/health/models-pred...cases/6081002/

Quote:

On the other hand, if the same or similar policies remain in place, the estimates indicate that about one-third of that -- an estimated 250,000 North Carolinians -- may be infected by June 1. ... Epidemiologist Kimberly Powers explained why these models are vastly different than the widely-cited IHME models from the University of Washington. For one thing, the IHME model showed that on Sunday there would be 1,300 hospitalizations in North Carolina, when in fact there are only 270 currently. So, Powers said, the model was predicting a much earlier upswing than we've actually seen. Additionally, she said the IHME model was based on a very, very strict social distancing policy based on what was happening in Wuhan after the outbreak there and not the actual guidelines being implemented here.

[dd564]

In MN, our governor's model is far more dire than any model found online.
Better safe than sorry, but his was predicting 50,000 deaths in MN alone, and currently we are under 1,000 cases yet.

[brewer12345]

Lower than forecast deaths is great. That said, peaks do not tell you when we can, say, go out to eat at a restaurant without fear of infection. All this flattening the curve will save lives, but it doesn't bring the effects of the pandemic on the economy to an end sooner: it prolongs it.

[stepford]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 All this flattening the curve will save lives, but it doesn't bring the effects of the pandemic on the economy to an end sooner: it prolongs it.

Epidemiologically yes, but not necessarily economically. It's not at all clear to me that the economy would recover more rapidly from, say, 1M deaths over a few months than 250K deaths over 18 months. These are obviously just wild numbers being thrown around, but my point is that shock has an effect on duration of economic downturn. A longer epidemic with a lesser shock may give rise to an overall more rapid recovery.

[gwraigty]

Today's press conference is still going on, but a reporter asked the health director why the IHME shows an earlier peak (April 12) than they keep forecasting (mid-May). Well, she's going to address that in more detail at another time. Sigh. But now it's been revealed that the Cleveland Clinic modeling is now predicting a best case scenario that we'll hit our peak in Ohio from mid-May to mid-June! I'm at a loss for words to still sound civil about this.

[gayl]

California just sent 500 vents to the National Stockpile. Gov Newsome also talking about testing for antibodies (Stanford) to get people back to work

[gauss]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gwraigty Today's press conference is still going on, but a reporter asked the health director why the IHME shows an earlier peak (April 12) than they keep forecasting (mid-May). Well, she's going to address that in more detail at another time. Sigh. But now it's been revealed that the Cleveland Clinic modeling is now predicting a best case scenario that we'll hit our peak in Ohio from mid-May to mid-June! I'm at a loss for words to still sound civil about this.

In Michigan, our Chief Medical Officer has said that "some models" show us peaking in a week or two (I think IMHE shows Apr 9) -- in reality she said that it would be more like May. Perhaps it depends on one's definition of peak?

-gauss

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gwraigty Today's press conference is still going on, but a reporter asked the health director why the IHME shows an earlier peak (April 12) than they keep forecasting (mid-May). Well, she's going to address that in more detail at another time. Sigh. But now it's been revealed that the Cleveland Clinic modeling is now predicting a best case scenario that we'll hit our peak in Ohio from mid-May to mid-June! I'm at a loss for words to still sound civil about this.

Think of it like a weather forecast, some of it's guesswork. Educated guesswork but still guesswork...just like the weather they won't which forecast was actually correct until it's over...

Quit looking at the peak guesses, cause they are just guesses..

[ivinsfan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Lower than forecast deaths is great. That said, peaks do not tell you when we can, say, go out to eat at a restaurant without fear of infection. All this flattening the curve will save lives, but it doesn't bring the effects of the pandemic on the economy to an end sooner: it prolongs it.

Well at some point things have to move along the idea we will be able to tell anyone they can go anyplace without fear of infection isn't realistic.

[JoeWras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivinsfan Well at some point things have to move along the idea we will be able to tell anyone they can go anyplace without fear of infection isn't realistic.

We're likely going to have a long period of taking risk with mitigation. For example, going out, but wearing a mask. Workers wearing masks. Etc.

Some people who have medical issues won't want to take any risk. Understandable.

Part of flattening this curve is to at least get on our knees from being run over and flattened. Give us some time to manufacture N95 or near N95 masks for the entire world population. Time to get rapid tests freely available for both active cases and antibodies. Time to run those drug studies, and explore more treatments, with the hope of having treatments available in later waves.

I for one really don't want to travel internationally until we have a vaccine. I'm also not keen on sporting events. Weddings, funeral, church service... I just don't know right now.

[Montecfo]

More on Va: peak date per IHME was updated to April 20 from May 20 a few hours ago.

And other reading says these forecasts are really breaking down- lass catastrophic than recent predictions.

[stepford]

All I can say is I hope they're pretty confident in their updated models. Whipsawing the public with alternating pessimism and optimism could easily result in a situation where nobody trusts any official recommendation and needed social distancing becomes much harder to enforce.

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by stepford All I can say is I hope they're pretty confident in their updated models. Whipsawing the public with alternating pessimism and optimism could easily result in a situation where nobody trusts any official recommendation and needed social distancing becomes much harder to enforce.

Confidence is low I'm sure. But you up can't question the science.

[walkinwood]

https://www.facebook.com/CDPHE/videos/218129309499271/


I posted this in another thead too. It is an update presentation from the Colorado Dept of Health & Environment. They talk about how "national models" predict earlier peaks than what their model - customized for Colorado - show. In Colorado, depending on the success of social distancing, stay-home & mask orders, the peak could be sometime in May.


They also talk about triage rules that will be used in Colorado.


Worth spending some time to see what the front-line organizations are saying & planning.

[JoeWras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by walkinwood I posted this in another thead too. It is an update presentation from the Colorado Dept of Health & Environment. They talk about how "national models" predict earlier peaks than what their model - customized for Colorado - show. In Colorado, depending on the success of social distancing, stay-home & mask orders, the peak could be sometime in May.

There are dueling models. My state (NC) has a similar model as CO, and yesterday talked about the same May peak.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Now I'm all for flattening the curve. I think the state officials are being as cautious as possible to assure they don't allow a quick re-spike.

However, I'm starting to get a bit dismayed by an undercurrent of some who seem to almost be cheering on gloomy results. (Not pointing at anyone on ER.org or this thread!) There's some weird and dangerous thought about the benefits of this shutdown, and a desire to perpetuate it.