Response to California ER doctors video

[Helen]

Not everyone has to comply for success. If that was the case the entire country would have already been infected. But if the vulnerable people protect themselves it doesn't matter a heck of a lot what others do because the vulnerable people are already protected.

How do we know who is vulnerable? There are a lot of young people and people who do not have underlying conditions who have died from the coronavirus.

 

[Spock]

Ok... for those who want to everybody to stay in lock down:
For how long?
When is it "safe"?

Vaccines normally take ~5 years and coronaviruses (viri?) are especially difficult because the attack site is in the lungs which medically is equivalent to the outside skin as compared to in the blood stream... there is highly optimistic hope they can fast track one for this bug in 18 months.


18 months (again, highly optimistically) with rationed basic food stuffs: meat, eggs, dairy, flour, canned goods, and produce?

18 months of mortgages, rent, car payments etc not being paid? What do you think your bond investments will look like with nobody making payments?


How long do we live like Venezuela?

If not now, when?
When we have testing capacity to check everybody daily? Not going to happen.

We're going to have to come to terms and adapt to living with this bug. Just like we live with combined fatality rates of hospital/medical errors, drunk drivers, heart disease, and the flu.

ONE US city is distributing 1 MILLION POUNDS OF FOOD A DAY and can't meet the number of people in line.
https://www.expressnews.com/news/lo...t-hard-by-coronavirus-pandemic-s-15189948.php

 

[MuirWannabe]

Ok... for those who want to everybody to stay in lock down:
For how long?
When is it "safe"?

Vaccines normally take ~5 years and coronaviruses (viri?) are especially difficult because the attack site is in the lungs which medically is equivalent to the outside skin as compared to in the blood stream... there is highly optimistic hope they can fast track one for this bug in 18 months.


18 months (again, highly optimistically) with rationed basic food stuffs: meat, eggs, dairy, flour, canned goods, and produce?

18 months of mortgages, rent, car payments etc not being paid? What do you think your bond investments will look like with nobody making payments?


How long do we live like Venezuela?

If not now, when?
When we have testing capacity to check everybody daily? Not going to happen.

We're going to have to come to terms and adapt to living with this bug. Just like we live with combined fatality rates of hospital/medical errors, drunk drivers, heart disease, and the flu.

ONE US city is distributing 1 MILLION POUNDS OF FOOD A DAY and can't meet the number of people in line.
https://www.expressnews.com/news/lo...t-hard-by-coronavirus-pandemic-s-15189948.php

I have wondered if the market was still seriously crashing, if some of those here who seem to want the lockdowns to be ongoing, would be singing a different tune. If ones nest egg was still in full free fall would us retirees relate more to the unemployed and those with failing businesses?
We may still find out although I sure hope not.

 

[eytonxav]

I have wondered if the market was still seriously crashing, if some of those here who seem to want the lockdowns to be ongoing, would be singing a different tune. If ones nest egg was still in full free fall would us retirees relate more to the unemployed and those with failing businesses?
We may still find out although I sure hope not.

Unfortunately, I suspect those that want the economy locked down indefinitely have more concern over political ramifications than health concerns and no doubt keeping the economy shuttered will also have health impacts.

 

[Aerides]

Unfortunately, I suspect those that want the economy locked down indefinitely have more concern over political ramifications than health concerns and no doubt keeping the economy shuttered will also have health impacts.

I don't think I've actually seen a single person here on the forums say "I want the economy locked down indefinitely" - (please quote a post if you have, I must have missed it between all the other thousands.)

Pretty sure everyone here realizes there are impacts to the shutdown as well beyond economics, and we struggle to know what the right balance might be, and what the costs are for all these options. I know I don't envy anyone having to weigh those choices for their states, counties, and communities.

Across all these threads, I do see concern, and skepticism that any opening will include everyone complying with social distancing. Most will, a few won't, and those few are making it harder for everyone else to have faith in safely entering a new normal.

 

[Ian S]

Unfortunately, I suspect those that want the economy locked down indefinitely have more concern over political ramifications than health concerns and no doubt keeping the economy shuttered will also have health impacts.

Nobody wants the economy locked down indefinitely but the willy-nilly opening up without meeting even the minimal CDC guidelines is IMHO a recipe for more COVID-19 spikes. BTW, if I'm right, what's the Plan B? Hint: there doesn't appear to be one.

The public health experts insist that more testing and contact tracing is needed and, based on what's been successful in other countries, I'm inclined to believe them. The claim that it's impossible to do all the testing that's required is simply malarky - we have plenty of unused testing capacity at the nation's universities https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01068-3 but utilizing it properly would require leadership and that seems to be in even shorter supply than PPE's have been. There's another article in the Wall Street Journal but it's behind a pay wall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-testing-capacity-is-going-unused-11588152602

 

[DAYDREAMER]

Thus, we are doomed to repeat the 1918 pandemic second wave that was bigger than the first. History repeats itself.

 

[gwraigty]

Across all these threads, I do see concern, and skepticism that any opening will include everyone complying with social distancing. Most will, a few won't, and those few are making it harder for everyone else to have faith in safely entering a new normal.

I have some concerns about our governor's flip-flopping on the mandating of masks, but there is one vitally important component of it that I wonder about. I hope that all goes well with our gradual re-opening. Let's say though, that we see a sustained rise in deaths from coronavirus among those in the general non-confined populations. What will they try to attribute that to? The re-openings of the businesses or that customers aren't mandated to wear a mask when visiting those businesses? It muddies the waters.

 

[Music Lover]

In 1918 very few people knew anything about the spreading and prevention of disease and most people would have starved if they couldn't work. How many people even washed their hands before handling raw meat? How many people had refrigeration? Today people have access to the latest medical information and can sit on their couch and have everything they need delivered right to their door.

Regardless of what happens and how soon things open, every single person still has the choice to protect themselves to whatever level they're comfortable with.

 

[eytonxav]

I don't think I've actually seen a single person here on the forums say "I want the economy locked down indefinitely" - (please quote a post if you have, I must have missed it between all the other thousands.)

You took my comment totally out of context, I was not referring to anyone on our forum, but rather those in government that are making decisions on opening or not, or imposing ridiculous stipulations on their constituents (eg Michigan for an example, you cannot purchase seeds for your garden, you cannot drive to your vacation home in the northern peninsula).

 

[gwraigty]

Thus, we are doomed to repeat the 1918 pandemic second wave that was bigger than the first. History repeats itself.

Or not. It's not hard to find several articles online that discuss the role of aspirin poisoning as having been recognized as a substantial contributing factor in the more deadly second wave.

In 1918 and very few people knew anything about the spreading and prevention of disease and most people would have starved if they couldn't work. Today people have access to the latest medical information and can sit on their couch and have everything they need delivered right to their door.

Regardless of what happens and how soon things open, every single person still has the choice to protect themselves to whatever level they're comfortable with.

+1

 

[Calico]

You took my comment totally out of context, I was not referring to anyone on our forum, but rather those in government that are making decisions on opening or not, or imposing ridiculous stipulations on their constituents (eg Michigan for an example, you cannot purchase seeds for your garden, you cannot drive to your vacation home in the northern peninsula).

The two restrictions you mention were lifted on 4/24, along with several others.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/politics/gretchen-whitmer-michigan-stay-at-home/index.html

"The order will also allow landscapers, lawn-service companies, plant nurseries and bike repair shops to resume operating, subject to social-distancing rules. Big-box retailers will no longer have to close off garden centers and areas dedicated to selling paint and carpet."

"New restrictions on travel and outside activities for the public have also been eased. Individuals will now be allowed to travel between their residences, though it isn't encouraged. People will be allowed to use motorized boats and play golf (but not golf carts) in adherence with social distancing protocols. State parks will remain open under the order, which have been accessible during the health emergency."

 

[audreyh1]

Regardless of what happens and how soon things open, every single person still has the choice to protect themselves to whatever level they're comfortable with.

Except there are people who can’t take care of themselves and can’t isolate themselves.

 

[eytonxav]

The two restrictions you mention were lifted on 4/24, along with several others.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/politics/gretchen-whitmer-michigan-stay-at-home/index.html

"The order will also allow landscapers, lawn-service companies, plant nurseries and bike repair shops to resume operating, subject to social-distancing rules. Big-box retailers will no longer have to close off garden centers and areas dedicated to selling paint and carpet."

"New restrictions on travel and outside activities for the public have also been eased. Individuals will now be allowed to travel between their residences, though it isn't encouraged. People will be allowed to use motorized boats and play golf (but not golf carts) in adherence with social distancing protocols. State parks will remain open under the order, which have been accessible during the health emergency."

Thats good, but should they ever have been implemented in the first place? Seemed like extreme overreach and infringement on personal liberties.

 

[Music Lover]

Except there are people who can’t take care of themselves and can’t isolate themselves.

Those people have always existed and always will. One thing I'm certain of is that if the economy is destroyed there will be far fewer available resources to help the at risk people.

 

[razztazz]

Thats good, but should they ever have been implemented in the first place? Seemed like extreme overreach and infringement on personal liberties.

Seemed. To you. But you don't have the responsibility. They do. In the end much / most of this might add up to indicate it was all overreach to some degree. But of course that's an after-the-fact analysis. Nobody can know any of this on the front end. The best anyone can do is seek the least bad bad outcome and learn for the future. "Seem". "Extreme Overreach" Subjective and not knowable so of no value. "Infringement on liberties"? Cops and criminals and businessmen use the same language all the time to get away with things. What liberties? What infringement? As if any infringement is de facto bad and unacceptable. Clearly a hoot of idea. And they are applicable only during normal situations anyway. Two different supreme court justices in separate cases said words to the effect: 'The Constitution is not a suicide pact'.

 

[audreyh1]

Those people have always existed and always will. One thing I'm certain of is that if the economy is destroyed there will be far fewer available resources to help the at risk people.

Has the economy been destroyed?

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

Has the economy been destroyed?

Naw, it's just a flesh wound. (for you Monty Python fans)

 

[LOL!]

... I'm down 30lbs in 7ish weeks skipping meals so my wife doesn't have to... I can't do that for another 18months ....

I think you may be erroneously extrapolating that you will continue to lose weight for 18 months. I will suggest that at some point you will stop losing weight because the food and calories you eat will be enough to maintain your new svelte self. That is, there is a plateau in your future.

 

[jollystomper]

Across all these threads, I do see concern, and skepticism that any opening will include everyone complying with social distancing. Most will, a few won't, and those few are making it harder for everyone else to have faith in safely entering a new normal.

The odds of everyone complying with social distancing as things open up are likely the same odds of people complying with road and highway speed limits . But even if everyone complied with speed limits, that would not guarantee total safety on the roads and highways.

What I do not really see discussed is "what is an acceptable number of ongoing infections and deaths from COVID-19?" Waiting to not open up until the answer is "zero" is impossible. It becomes more of an exercise in determining the "acceptable" risk to a society as a whole and what incentives/punishments need to be in place to support that, and then what individuals choose to do reduce the personal risk as much as possible.

 

[eytonxav]

Seemed. To you. But you don't have the responsibility. They do. In the end much / most of this might add up to indicate it was all overreach to some degree. But of course that's an after-the-fact analysis. Nobody can know any of this on the front end. The best anyone can do is seek the least bad bad outcome and learn for the future. "Seem". "Extreme Overreach" Subjective and not knowable so of no value. "Infringement on liberties"? Cops and criminals and businessmen use the same language all the time to get away with things. What liberties? What infringement? As if any infringement is de facto bad and unacceptable. Clearly a hoot of idea. And they are applicable only during normal situations anyway. Two different supreme court justices in separate cases said words to the effect: 'The Constitution is not a suicide pact'.

 

[Music Lover]

Two different supreme court justices in separate cases said words to the effect: 'The Constitution is not a suicide pact'.

It's not suicide if you isolate.

 

[Alan]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.