Safe like me calculator

[PatrickA5]

Those percentages are IF you caught COVID in the first place. The odds of GETTING it in the first place for you is .01%. Compared to the flu, you are 40 times more likely to catch the flu during flu season than to catch COVID.

I wonder if the calculator assumes the same parameters when figuring your odds of getting the flu during flu season. My guess if you wear a mask, wash your hands and stay away from people, you won't be getting the flu either.

 

[Rianne]

I'm fairly comfortable with these findings. I guess my bigger concern is lasting effects if I get the virus. That information is under reported.
My number is 26
Hospitalization risk 20%
ICU 11%
Dying 2.5%
Our county under-reporting factor of 1.5x


Accounting for the under-reporting factor and average length of sickness, we estimate there are 396 active cases distributed through the county who are not officially reported.

 

[Aerides]

The odds of GETTING it in the first place for you is .01%. <snip>
You are almost twice as likely to be hit by lightning in your lifetime, than catch COVID based on those odds.

The odds are for the given week. They also take into account the personal steps you are taking, such as not being around many people, using PPE, staying home, etc.

I have a similar .01% risk factor, because I'm staying home, limiting exposure mostly to a handful of family members who are similarly cautious. I'd hit 1% at 60 people which sounds about right if I still worked in an office and hugged my niece and nephew and "resumed normal."

And of course it changes, as the area I'm in is going up every day in the cases (yay florida). So a week from now I'd expect that risk to go up.

My lightning risk in florida is probably higher than most - if I ignore the warnings and alerts and go outside in a storm. I don't...but there's no "danger will robinson" sign if I enter a cloud of covid aerosols.

 

[Chuckanut]

Fomite isn't a word I use every day, but I don't think fomite transmission is really much of the problem, at all. It seems it is all about being indoors for a "long time" with other people.

+1

One thing the experts seem to agree on is that one needs to take in a certain concentration of the virus for it to get the upper hand and overwhelm our immune systems. It's much easier to get that concentration when one is inside a room with little air circulation.

Maybe I should buy stock in companies that make really powerful window fans.

 

[Badger]

I want to invent a little fan that fits on my shoulder blowing air away from me. My DSI, a real estate agent shows houses and wears a mask but as many people she sees in a day concerns me. Do they really physically distance? And they're from out of town. I just don't feel comfortable around her. I can carry a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my pocket but now I"m thinking I'll carry a small Lysol spray can and spray the air. Would that be offensive?

https://www.google.com/search?q=per...WFmeAKHU6RBKEQ_AUoAnoECBAQBA&biw=1366&bih=626 I also remember a couple of decades ago seeing a late show that had Tony Randall as a guest. He carried a small battery fan to blow the smoke back a people who were smoking around him. I think too there are companies that make a fan mounted to a baseball cap.


Cheers!

 

[Rianne]

Maybe I should buy stock in companies that make really powerful window fans.

Or invent a shoulder fan that sits on your shoulder and blows the air away from your face. Maybe that would be rude and no one would come near me. Then again...

 

[harllee]

Those percentages are IF you caught COVID in the first place. The odds of GETTING it in the first place for you is .01%. Compared to the flu, you are 40 times more likely to catch the flu during flu season than to catch COVID.

As a healthy, COVID-free person today, your risk of dying, ICU or hospitalization from COVID is;
Hospitalization; .01% of 15% or .0015%
ICU; .01% of 3.9% or .00039%
Death; .01% of 2.4% is .00024%

You are almost twice as likely to be hit by lightning in your lifetime, than catch COVID based on those odds.

While there were more cases of influenza last year in the US (so far) the number of deaths from Covid-19 is already far greater than any year for influenza in the U.S. There is no comparison of the flu vs Covid--Covid is much more deadly and much more likely to cause permanent health problems.

Your comparison to lightening strikes is incorrect too. So far this year in the US there are over 3 million people infected by Covid-1 and over 130,000 deaths. In the average year in the US less than a 1000 people are struck by lightening and around 50 people die from lightening strikes. How can you compare Covid-19 to lightening strikes?

 

[Sojourner]

My "19andMe" numbers (below) are fairly reassuring.

Among people who are the same age, sex, and health status as you, and have behaviors and levels of interaction with others that are similar to yours, the estimated probability of catching COVID-19 through community transmission in a week is 0.014% . For comparison, 0.41% of Americans catch the flu every week during flu season.

Among people who are the same age, sex, and health status as you and get sick from COVID-19, the risk of hospitalization is 10%, the risk of requiring an ICU is 3.1%, and the risk of dying is 0.75%.

Assuming all this is reasonably accurate, I have about a 1% chance of catching COVID-19 over a 52 week period. And, if I were to catch it, less than a 1% chance of dying from it. I'll take those odds.

 

[Sojourner]

Your comparison to lightening strikes is incorrect too. So far this year in the US there are over 3 million people infected by Covid-1 and over 130,000 deaths. In the average year in the US less than a 1000 people are struck by lightening and around 50 people die from lightening strikes. How can you compare Covid-19 to lightening strikes?

+1

Apparently, the odds of being struck by lighting in any one year are about 1 in 700,000, equivalent to 0.00000143, or 0.000143%. Yet, for someone with my risk profile, the odds of catching COVID-19 within a one year period are roughly 1%. So the odds of my being struck by lightning within the next year are very roughly 7,000 times less than getting COVID-19. Not even remotely in the same risk ballpark.

 

[Rianne]

My "19andMe" numbers (below) are fairly reassuring.


Assuming all this is reasonably accurate, I have about a 1% chance of catching COVID-19 over a 52 week period. And, if I were to catch it, less than a 1% chance of dying from it. I'll take those odds.

Please share! How are you so lucky?