Safe like me calculator

[sengsational]

Is there a calculator to show how careful you are about preventing transmission of the pandemic virus?

The questions would probably be like "I never go inside stores" then let you pick from strongly agree to strongly disagree and n/a. And "if I go into a public place, I always wear a N95 or better mask". And questions about fomite transmission, such as "Groceries that don't require refrigeration or freezing get set aside for at least 2 days".

The reason this came to mind is that I felt OK spending time with several other couples recently since I "interviewed them" about how careful they've been with their standard protocol.

A calculator like this would be good for two purposes. First, it would allow people to be able to quickly communicate their level of transmission prevention protocol ("we have been maintaining a TPP level 2 lately"). Also, it might be instructive (the questions might prompt safer behaviors). Of course there will be those that strive for TPP level 5 (worst), just to be macho. But I think overall, it would be a good metric.

Maybe I'm missing it, but I googled and didn't find it.

 

[pacergal]

I've never come across anything like that.

I just figure on possible exposure risk with anything/anyone, and do what I can to decrease that risk to me (mask, maintain distance, good hand washing)
Even immediate family, as two of them work and not in jobs that are "work from home" capable.

 

[sengsational]

Even immediate family, as two of them work and not in jobs that are "work from home" capable.

Lucky, both of my kids are able to work from home. One of my kids is planning a visit, and we are happy to have her because we know she's taking the same level of precaution as we've been taking.

 

[Rianne]

I want to invent a little fan that fits on my shoulder blowing air away from me. My DSI, a real estate agent shows houses and wears a mask but as many people she sees in a day concerns me. Do they really physically distance? And they're from out of town. I just don't feel comfortable around her. I can carry a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my pocket but now I"m thinking I'll carry a small Lysol spray can and spray the air. Would that be offensive?

 

[Sunset]

I want to invent a little fan that fits on my shoulder blowing air away from me. My DSI, a real estate agent shows houses and wears a mask but as many people she sees in a day concerns me. Do they really physically distance? And they're from out of town. I just don't feel comfortable around her. I can carry a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my pocket but now I"m thinking I'll carry a small Lysol spray can and spray the air. Would that be offensive?

I use bear spray, it seems to keep everyone away

 

[Sunset]

Is there a calculator to show how careful you are about preventing transmission of the pandemic virus?

The questions would probably be like "I never go inside stores" then let you pick from strongly agree to strongly disagree and n/a. And "if I go into a public place, I always wear a N95 or better mask". And questions about fomite transmission, such as "Groceries that don't require refrigeration or freezing get set aside for at least 2 days".

The reason this came to mind is that I felt OK spending time with several other couples recently since I "interviewed them" about how careful they've been with their standard protocol.

A calculator like this would be good for two purposes. First, it would allow people to be able to quickly communicate their level of transmission prevention protocol ("we have been maintaining a TPP level 2 lately"). Also, it might be instructive (the questions might prompt safer behaviors). Of course there will be those that strive for TPP level 5 (worst), just to be macho. But I think overall, it would be a good metric.

Maybe I'm missing it, but I googled and didn't find it.

People lie.

If you phrase your questions carefully, you may get a more accurate response:
Instead of: "if I go into a public place, I always wear a N95 or better mask"
Ask: "Normally I wear an N95 mask, but have forgotten/couldn't wear it, (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(5+) times".

 

[Aerides]

I found this one:

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

It's more based on age, location, health, but does ask if you are using PPE and how many people you interact with each week. What I found interesting was it took the data for my county, then based on positivity rate determined the likely true number of active infections vs. the actual.

The results tell you your probability of catching it in a given week, and your odds for hospitalization/death, etc.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

Something like this one? I can't vouch for it; it's what came up in a Google search for "COVID risk calculator."

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

I get the impression from browsing other pages in my search that the science just isn't there yet for a meaningful calculator.

EDIT: Ha! Aerides beat me by 1 minute.

 

[GravitySucks]

All my friends say they are staying safe, but drilling down you see some people's idea of safe us different than others.
I say I'm well isolated, but I do go to Home Depo and grocery stores instead of curbside pickup. Some of my friends think that's an unnecessary risk. Other friends say they're staying safe, then post videos of themselves at parties.
A questionnaire like you're looking for would be nice but since people are self delusional I wouldn't count on it to provide anything useful.

 

[karen1972]

Agreed, my neighbors say oh I'm totally safe, then I see them having their parents over, babysitting their nieces/nephews, stopping on their walks to talk with the neighbors, so its the I'm safe because I assume the people I interact with don't have it vs. my idea of I'm safe is I try to have no interaction with anyone for more than 10 minutes with 6 ft of them other than the person I live with.

I tried the 19 & me, it says I have a .0054% chance of getting COVID but then gives me a 32/100 number which to me seems wildly out of sync. I'm waiting for my friends test results to come back, he works as a grocery manager so has to deal with all the crazies in the store, so I told him if he doesn't have antibodies then the virus is just not really prevalent here because its hard to believe he wouldn't have been exposed at this point.

 

[pacergal]

I found this one:

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

It's more based on age, location, health, but does ask if you are using PPE and how many people you interact with each week. What I found interesting was it took the data for my county, then based on positivity rate determined the likely true number of active infections vs. the actual.

The results tell you your probability of catching it in a given week, and your odds for hospitalization/death, etc.

Interesting, thanks!

 

[gwraigty]

I found this one:

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

It's more based on age, location, health, but does ask if you are using PPE and how many people you interact with each week. What I found interesting was it took the data for my county, then based on positivity rate determined the likely true number of active infections vs. the actual.

The results tell you your probability of catching it in a given week, and your odds for hospitalization/death, etc.

When I used the calculator, the needle barely budged when I experimented with the parameter of how many people my household members came into contact with each week. Going from 0 to 100 made little difference.

 

[Rustic23]

When I used the calculator, the needle barely budged when I experimented with the parameter of how many people my household members came into contact with each week. Going from 0 to 100 made little difference.

Interesting, just changing Male to Female, caused a change from 41 down to 37. Also the last two questions, Washing hands, and wearing ppe, seemed to make the largest difference. Changing zip code to Houston from San Jancinto (a sparsely occupied county) did not change the answer.

 

[Chuckanut]

I came up with a risk of 47. 47 what?

Here is their explanation of my risks:

Among people who are the same age, sex, and health status as you, and have behaviors and levels of interaction with others that are similar to yours, the estimated probability of catching COVID-19 through community transmission in a week is 0.013% . For comparison, 0.41% of Americans catch the flu every week during flu season.
Among people who are the same age, sex, and health status as you and get sick from COVID-19, the risk of hospitalization is 21% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 5.7% , and the risk of dying is 5.3% .

 

[harllee]

I have decided that none of my friends/family are being as careful as I am ( DH has an autoimmune disease and we are both late 60s). Instead of a test I simply ask "What have you been doing lately?" and then just let the person talk. They eventually will tell me everything they have done-- out to eat, shopping, to a party, to Church, to the hairdresser, kept the grandchildren etc. Most people have no concept of what they should be doing to stay really safe. I am staying away from all of them.

 

[tb001]

I think some stratification of activity risk/exposure would be great. My parents tell me they’re being careful, and then let slip about the restaurant or party they’re going to. We live in a more exposed area, but are much lower risk and would never consider doing some of what they’re doing. By the same token, we’ve had contractors over and kept our housekeeper on and good friends of ours have been much more strict because they’re interacting with grandparents regularly.

People lie, but they’re also very bad at assessing risk. I think something could be designed that would be a good indicator.

 

[gwraigty]

I have decided that none of my friends/family are being as careful as I am ( DH has an autoimmune disease and we are both late 60s). Instead of a test I simply ask "What have you been doing lately?" and then just let the person talk. They eventually will tell me everything they have done-- out to eat, shopping, to a party, to Church, to the hairdresser, kept the grandchildren etc. Most people have no concept of what they should be doing to stay really safe. I am staying away from all of them.

Smart. Very smart.

Yesterday I was watering my garden. A neighbor walked by chattering away on her cell phone. Her youngest child had a baseball game on Friday. They went to a party Saturday night. That morning she'd gone out with her daughters to...You get the idea.

This family is in their late 40s/early 50s with 3 kids. Only the youngest is still in school, I think. The middle one just graduated high school. Back in May, they were sitting in lawn chairs in another neighbor's driveway, having a socially-distanced visit, no masks. What changed? I don't know. "Caution fatigue"? Maybe they all got the virus since then and recovered? All I do know is that most of my neighbors appear to not have taken precautions, even from the beginning. Socializing with each other up close and personal like usual. 4th of July parties over the weekend. Graduation parties this summer. Oh well. I have no plans to hang out with any of them anyway.

 

[ckelly78z]

I guess I must be TPP-5, as I just spent a week of vacation, mostly at home camping with 2 other couples, but occasionally going into a store.....all without masks, or social distancing. I last wore a mask on Friday June 26, and then again this morning when I went back to work. I live in a county with only 11 confirmed cases over the last 4 months, and 1 death, but no knowledge of anyone who has even been tested.

We live on a 10 acre farm near nothing, and have really grown weary of all the big city restrictions imposed on us. Several nearby cities are proposing legislation requiring masks in public...SMH !

 

[sengsational]

I found this one:

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

It's more based on age, location, health, but does ask if you are using PPE and how many people you interact with each week.

That's got a component (behavior) that I was talking about, but primarily to assess risk vs decided who to hang out with. But interesting info, thanks. I think if they did have a behavioral calculator, they'd need to just pull the stats out of thin air, because we don't know (i.e. should wiping down groceries be weighted 10 and wearing an N95 in stores also 10, or should it be 5x as important and weighted 50?)


But I like the idea of just asking what you've been up to lately and letting them incriminate themselves

 

[sengsational]

Behavioural Risk Calculators - Updating Required?

The article below is making me think this thing is really about breathing other peoples' exhales. The office building example shows lots of people using the same bathrooms, elevators, and common areas, but only one room of this call center got slammed.

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_...hey-happened-and-how-they-can-be-avoided.html

Fomite isn't a word I use every day, but I don't think fomite transmission is really much of the problem, at all. It seems it is all about being indoors for a "long time" with other people.

 

[Aerides]

^
This distance-to-infection-rate theory aligns with most of what I've gleaned over time. It's the reason a brief (unintentional) broach of the 6 foot rule isn't too worrisome - for most. It's much prolonged exposure. Shared airspace for multiple breaths.

But probably a brief encounter is still a higher risk for those with suppressed immune systems.

Still, I wouldn't want to share an elevator with someone covid-positive, I'll wait for the next ride.

 

[samm]

I found this one:

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/

I did the test and it said my risk of hospitalization is 15% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 3.9% , and the risk of dying is 2.4%. These #s are far higher than I thought.

 

[Amethyst]

People will twist anything to suit their convenience, won't they?
I went to the gym one more time, just to see if anything had changed. Of about 3 dozen patrons, mostly older men, I was one of 3 people (besides staff) wearing a mask.
Someone I used to chat with came over to ask how I was doing. "I almost didn't recognize you with that mask on," he said.
He further said that he wears a mask to the grocery store, but doesn't wear one at the gym because people stay apart.
"You know the virus is airborne, right?" I said. "Yeah...but people stay pretty far apart here." Yet, not twenty feet away, three old guys were bellowing at each other around a machine none of them was using. We would have to walk past their airborne virus on the way out.
I'm not comfortable there at all.

 

[skipro33]

I did the test and it said my risk of hospitalization is 15% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 3.9% , and the risk of dying is 2.4%. These #s are far higher than I thought.

Those percentages are IF you caught COVID in the first place. The odds of GETTING it in the first place for you is .01%. Compared to the flu, you are 40 times more likely to catch the flu during flu season than to catch COVID.

As a healthy, COVID-free person today, your risk of dying, ICU or hospitalization from COVID is;
Hospitalization; .01% of 15% or .0015%
ICU; .01% of 3.9% or .00039%
Death; .01% of 2.4% is .00024%

You are almost twice as likely to be hit by lightning in your lifetime, than catch COVID based on those odds.

 

[Calico]

I did the test and it said my risk of hospitalization is 15% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 3.9% , and the risk of dying is 2.4%. These #s are far higher than I thought.

My risk of hospitalization if I get Covid is 8.7%; risk of needing ICU is 2.2%; risk of dying is 1.4%. My final "score" is 1. Most importantly it says my risk of contracting Covid through community transmission in a week is 0%.

I attribute these numbers entirely to my paranoid behavior since March 13th, and not being near anyone since then. Since that date I have set foot in buildings other than my house exactly five times: two 20 minute trips to the grocery store; one 5 minute trip to the optometrist to pick up glasses; two trips to pick up takeout food, for which I spent about 30 seconds in the restaurant each time. I wear a mask every time I leave my house - inside or outside. I wore gloves to all the places mentioned above. I pick up groceries once a week, and I keep 8 feet away from the (masked) grocery employees as they load the groceries in the car. I have had no one in my house and have not seen any members of my family since early February. I wash my hands many times a day and carry sanitizer in the car and use it frequently.

I had recently been planning to "loosen up" just a bit and arrange a "socially distant" visit with local family members. Then I learned two weeks ago that they are sharing a beach house next week with members of four other households, several of whom are still going to w#rk. So I won't be seeing those family members any time soon.

I live alone. I have worked at home since March 13th. I realize that I am extremely lucky and privileged to have this option, and to have the resources to have lots of items delivered so I don't need to go to stores.

I desperately need a haircut - and I am not getting one. I am overdue for a dental cleaning - and I am not getting it. I am cutting my own hair and buying a waterpik.

I am going to one medical appointment tomorrow - my "every three month" oncology recheck. I cancelled the one scheduled in April due to case numbers here at the time. Numbers continue to go up here now, and I anticipate that in October this area will be a disaster zone (Flu + Covid). So I will go to the appointment tomorrow, then not go again until January 2021. I feel fine and fully expect to get a clean bill of health tomorrow as I always do - I just think it would be foolish to wait until January to be 100% sure.

I will be a sight to see tomorrow. I will be wearing an N95 mask, swim goggles, a face shield, and disposable gloves. I don't care how silly I look, or who laughs at me or thinks I am "overdoing" it. The way I see it, I have one priority between now and December when I retire, and that is to do everything in my power to avoid Covid. I would be so mad at myself if I caught it and missed out on my retirement. So I will sacrifice a lot in the short term in order to try to make sure that doesn't happen.