Sobering interview with top epidemiologist

Status
Not open for further replies.
RobbieB said:
Of course not, they are full of holes and way more "show" than "go"

Slightly better than nothing.
Click to expand...

Here's what the Dr. said:

Minimizing your contact with large groups, numbers of people, will surely help. We know that you can reduce transmission that way. Beyond that, wearing a mask will reduce your risk and not in a major way, but it’s another possible means of reducing transmission. But in the end, this is why we so desperately need to get a vaccine.
Click to expand...
 
Good article.


I believe the other problem with it doing dormant and coming back is people stop worrying about it. Physical Distancing is the biggest deterrent. Small groups in an outdoor setting, distanced - probably not a big deal. Good news for my wife and I who coach Cross Country. With some modifications, it can be done safely.


Small or large groups, indoors, really bad idea.



If people practice physical distancing and keep at it, number of deaths can be reduced. If not, then will likely increase.



If your trip in the store is quick (10-20 minutes), a cloth mask will provide protection. If not quick, you probably want a better mask.



cd :O)
 
omni550 said:
Dan Buettner of Blue Zones interviews epidemiologist Dr. Osterholm.

"In short, Dr. Osterholm is arguably one of the most dependable, non-political sources for straight answers on what COVID-19 means to us and our world in the immediate future. In his 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy, he correctly foretells a global pandemic and offers the best strategy for fighting it now and avoiding it in the future."

Dr. O is not impressed with the utility of basic cloth masks. Scary potential future death rates too.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/


omni
Click to expand...
Very good, thanks.

His deaths extrapolation of 10-14x for about same infections rate increase of 12-14x seems overly negative to me given the most vulnerable populations have already experienced more infections & more deaths than the remaining live population.

I take that if you're going to dine inside, be sure there are high ceilings with lots of fans. Lots of brew pubs like this.
 
Last edited:
This may be a dumb question, but it keeps nagging at me ... any chance that the virus travels at all through the ventilation systems in nursing homes? I also wondered that about the cruise ships.
 
gattara said:
This may be a dumb question, but it keeps nagging at me ... any chance that the virus travels at all through the ventilation systems in nursing homes? I also wondered that about the cruise ships.
Click to expand...

Not a dumb question at all and one would logically think unless there is some mechanism in the HVAC unit (UV light/HEPA Filter/Etc.) to kill the aerosoled virus, it would likely spread in any closed system. Just my uneducated thought and another reason why I'm avoiding activities in closed buildings like the plague, play on words there so to speak.
 
Last edited:
gerntz said:
Very good, thanks.

His deaths extrapolation of 10-14x for about same infections rate increase of 12-14x seems overly negative to me given the most vulnerable populations have already experienced more infections & more deaths than the remaining live population.

I take that if you're going to dine inside, be sure there are high ceilings with lots of fans.
Click to expand...

Agree in general terms.
 
gattara said:
This may be a dumb question, but it keeps nagging at me ... any chance that the virus travels at all through the ventilation systems in nursing homes? I also wondered that about the cruise ships.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't it? But, I'd expect it would get diluted/degraded so much as to not be much of an issue for infection. What I read is that you need time x concentration to get infected. Vent systems would quickly lower concentration.
 

Attachments

  • covid restaurant.JPG
    covid restaurant.JPG
    73.2 KB · Views: 58
The takeaways for me in this interview were:

1- if you are generally healthy (no serious underlying health issues), and not obese, you are much more likely to be able to get through this virus without serious issues, if you get it. Leading a healthy lifestyle is very important.

2 -spending time outdoors is good. Outdoor exercise is very good. Transmission is all about time of exposure. You are unlikely to get the virus by just briefly interacting with smaller numbers of people outdoors. Longer exposure times in an indoor setting are much more problematic;

3- we have to learn how to live with this virus, as it's likely to be around for a while, maybe a long while. There is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will be available anytime real soon.
 
Martha said:
Interesting the amateur epidemiologists second guessing the numbers.
Click to expand...

Well even Dr. O can't see the future between 800K and 1.6 million deaths that's a big range... ....computer modeling has been way off as well. He also said long care facilities are developing herd immunity which seems odd because people in the homes are dying which doesn't do a thing for herd immunity.In our state which apparently we both live in, 80% of deaths are coming from long term care and they continue at that rate and have since March.
 
ivinsfan said:
Well even Dr. O can't see the future between 800K and 1.6 million deaths that's a big range... ....computer modeling has been way off as well. He also said long care facilities are developing herd immunity which seems odd because people in the homes are dying which doesn't do a thing for herd immunity.In our state which apparently we both live in, 80% of deaths are coming from long term care and they continue at that rate and have since March.
Click to expand...

A big range because there are so many variables. Herd immunity can happen in nursing homes because even though the nursing home rate death rate is high, most still recover. Case fatality rate may be around 15% but numbers are still uncertain. I've seen figures as low as 8%. Averaged throughout the country nursing homes and assisted living account for about 42% of Covid deaths, but probably an undercount and may be more like 50%. Minnesota for example is at about the 80% you mention.
 
gerntz said:
Meaning the pros can't well interpret the numbers. Dart boards seem as accurate.
Click to expand...

Yes. The wide range is another way of saying the estimates are made with little confidence, despite the manifest expertise.
 
I wonder if we are as demanding with ourselves as we are with epidemiologists. Or as tolerant.

Most of what epidemiologists and virologist know about COVID is the result of medical observation, not clinical research. They are first to acknowledge what they don’t know. We need to learn to listen. They build models to help enable understanding. It is up to us to learn how to use and interpret. For most of our lives they have done that without the constant interruptions of us demanding (and crying for) answers.

I’m neither an epidemiologist, virologist, or statistician, so I don’t plan on second guessing any of them.
 
Last edited:
Martha said:
A big range because there are so many variables. Herd immunity can happen in nursing homes because even though the nursing home rate death rate is high, most still recover. Case fatality rate may be around 15% but numbers are still uncertain. I've seen figures as low as 8%. Averaged throughout the country nursing homes and assisted living account for about 42% of Covid deaths, but probably an undercount and may be more like 50%. Minnesota for example is at about the 80% you mention.
Click to expand...

It would be interesting to see the recovery rate for nursing home patients. I don't think I have seen that number anywhere .the local nursing home has the residents confined to their rooms 24/7 .so isn't seeing covid cases right now
 
A doctor saying being over weight is bad for you Ground Breaking!
 
gerntz said:
Meaning the pros can't well interpret the numbers. Dart boards seem as accurate.
Click to expand...
No, that's not what it means.

There are many variables, such as:

States opening up too soon. There's already significant evidence that many states are experiencing a large increase in hospitalizations and percentage of positive test results after opening up arguably too soon.

People who are ignoring directives which would hinder transmission.

The discovery of more effective treatments, and the degree to which they are effective.

The possible introduction of a vaccine, how rapidly it can be distributed, the percentage of the population able and willing to be vaccinated, the degree of effectiveness, and the duration of the effectiveness against the virus.

And probably others factors and unknowns.
 
gerntz said:
Meaning the pros can't well interpret the numbers. Dart boards seem as accurate.
Click to expand...

That’s not interpretation. The pros use models to try to make predictions. Predictive models give a range of possible outcomes. If there is a lot of uncertainty due to a whole number of factors, the range is likely to be large.
 
ivinsfan said:
It would be interesting to see the recovery rate for nursing home patients. I don't think I have seen that number anywhere .the local nursing home has the residents confined to their rooms 24/7 .so isn't seeing covid cases right now
Click to expand...
Hawaii's largest home just had a cluster of cases...worker brought it in.
 
A little off-topic, but my contention is that the best thing we could do right now (besides social distancing) is make N95 masks widely available to everyone, and mandatory in use for public spaces. They are far more effective than most cloth masks. I have a couple of masks that were made and tested by a biochemist at our local college. They use a special fine mesh fabric that's almost as good as an N95 mask. This particular detail has been lost on the world, as we panicked, and now we seem to think regular cloth is the answer.
 
Nobody is responsible for your safety, but you.

Not the experts, not the government, not your neighbor or people on the street.

Nobody has the answers, only more questions.

We live in exciting times.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

B
  • Locked
Researh on expedient mask materials
Replies
1
Views
768
2017ish
2017ish

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom