Super-spreader Situations

[Chuckanut]

I think that demonstrates that a test that's done too many days ago is not very effective at limiting the spread. This is exactly the kind of thing that was elucidated in Dr. Mina (et al) analysis in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309v2

You need to test immediately before the gathering. It's not perfect, but much better than a very accurate test a couple weeks in advance, as proven by the math in the paper.

From what I have read frequent, cheap fast result testing, even if the accuracy rate is only 80% is far better than infrequent highly accurate testing. IOW, being tested two or three times a week by a cheap 80% accurate near instant result test, is better than being tested every 2-3 weeks by a 99.9% accurate test that takes 3+ days to get a result.

Contact tracing tests need results in two days or less.

We seem to be learning how to do this right. Slowly, but it's progress.

 

[audreyh1]

Gosh, people just seem to keep getting into trouble with the family gatherings. There must be some kind of mental block, or perhaps not wanting to offend, that means people take more risks to get together with distant family. And these are the most heartbreaking outcomes if loved ones become ill.

This family had been super careful, yet still flew across the country for a family gathering that included their elderly mother/grandmother. 7 of 10 people became infected that they know of. They don’t know who was initially infected as it seemed they all came down sick at about the same time. Two of the younger folks had no symptoms and weren’t tested.

Looking back, Costigan, 54, doesn’t think he and Gloria, 53, contracted the virus on their separate flights to Georgia, where the family owns a home. The flights were nearly empty and the passengers and crew wore masks, he said.

In Georgia, the family continued its regimen of social distancing and wore masks whenever they left the house — protocols they had followed for months at home in California. And when they gathered with their relatives on that sunny Saturday in July, they were careful to space the chairs 6 feet apart in the backyard.

But they didn’t wear masks, he said, and family members went in and out of the house to grab drinks and use the restroom.

“We thought we’d done everything right, and we screwed up,” Costigan said in a July 29 phone interview. “We made a big mistake

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/California-GOP-consultant-rues-big-mistake-15458869.php

 

[EastWest Gal]

Probably an asymptomatic infected person. Why don’t they test everyone?

 

[audreyh1]

Probably an asymptomatic infected person. Why don’t they test everyone?

Do you mean in that group? Or everyone in general?

 

[Rianne]

Our county has added more than 100 cases per week for the last 5 weeks. When a resident tests positive and are told to isolate, contact anyone they've had contact with and monitor symptoms. Most of our cases, 955 between the ages 11-40 yrs. old of the total 1558 cases. 61% of our cases are 40 yrs. old or younger.


I wonder how diligent these cases are regarding stay at home (isolate) and contact anyone they've been in contact with. The weather is beautiful, 74 degrees high today. Our county has indoor dining in restaurants, I've seen people sitting at the bar when I pick up "to go" food...all without masks. The local market with an indoor restaurant had all the tables full when I picked up a coffee to go. I can only protect myself. If people are ignoring safety measures to protect themselves and others, why would they follow CDC guidelines if they test positive?

 

[LOL!]

Just reading this thread now. I cannot figure out what is going on with the contact tracing results.

How is the following situation counted in the percentages in the Maryland percentages?

Family gathers to eat at an outdoor restaurant at a shopping mall where one of the famliy members is a server.

 

[audreyh1]

Just reading this thread now. I cannot figure out what is going on with the contact tracing results.

How is the following situation counted in the percentages in the Maryland percentages?

Family gathers to eat at an outdoor restaurant at a shopping mall where one of the famliy members is a server.

I think multiple choices are allowed. One event could check all boxes, but also people are likely to have been in multiple situations anyway.

 

[audreyh1]

Here we go again!

One man with coronavirus attending Ohio church service led to infection of 91 others https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...ohio-church-service-led-infection-91-n1236030

56-year-old man with the coronavirus attending a single church service in Ohio led to the infection's spread to at least 91 other people across five counties.

Gov. Mike DeWine posted a graphic to his Facebook page Wednesday detailing how the virus spread over a three-week period from the date of the church service on June 14 to July 4.

"It spread like wildfire," the governor said at a news conference Tuesday where the graphic was displayed. "Very, very scary."

DeWine noted on his Facebook page, "All it takes is one person to cause tremendous #COVID19 spread."

This happened within three weeks, and apparently they are just talking about people who experienced symptoms!

Here’s one of those cool case study graphics again. Follow the links to the Facebook post to get a higher resolution.

 

[Gumby]

We, as a nation, keep looking for the easy way out. But there simply is no easy way out. We already know what we must do - everyone stays home, alone, as much as possible. If we absolutely must come into contact with other people, we mask up and practice social distancing. That is how we defeat this virus. I know it's hard to do the right things. To quote the late, great Khan, "it sucks moose balls". But we must. Our collective inability to make the hard choices and do the right things, even when we would rather not, is what will doom us.

 

[JoeWras]

We, as a nation, keep looking for the easy way out. But there simply is no easy way out. We already know what we must do - everyone stays home, alone, as much as possible. If we absolutely must come into contact with other people, we mask up and practice social distancing. That is how we defeat this virus. I know it's hard to do the right things. To quote the late, great Khan, "it sucks moose balls". But we must. Our collective inability to make the hard choices and do the right things, even when we would rather not, is what will doom us.

And we didn't do it right, right from the beginning. People were crowding the big box home improvement stores during that strict lockdown, which was nearly in every state. People were constantly going to grocery stores to find their favorite item, which they really didn't need. They just wanted it and were panicking because it was out and were apparently afraid they'd never find it again. Reports right here had people going to 4 or 5 stores per day. And this was during the time when it was said, "Masks don't work."

Sadly, we never killed the fire. This was part of the reason.

My neighbor is a great example. He announced to me that this fight was his generation's WWII. Posted on Nextdoor for everyone to stay home, "Let's do this!"

After one week, he was out constantly going to Home Depot to get materials for a project he said he needed to stop him from going stir crazy.

So much for fighting the war. Ask those alive during WWII what real sacrifice was. Ask about ration books. Ask about buying a new car (hint: NO). Ask about having to repair a home with broken pipes. (Hint: get very creative and reuse everything.) Etc.

 

[Aerides]

We, as a nation, keep looking for the easy way out. But there simply is no easy way out. We already know what we must do - everyone stays home, alone, as much as possible. If we absolutely must come into contact with other people, we mask up and practice social distancing. That is how we defeat this virus. I know it's hard to do the right things. To quote the late, great Khan, "it sucks moose balls". But we must. Our collective inability to make the hard choices and do the right things, even when we would rather not, is what will doom us.

Also at issue is our unending ability to disagree, to put me-over-them, to put our heads in the sand, to deny and disrespect knowledge and experience, and make our own choices, consequences be damned. We, quite clearly, are not all in this together.

But all those traits are what makes this country wonderful and special, the thumbing our nose at rulers in our history, the idea that any one person can leapfrog history and make their own destiny, that we always prosper after conflicts and come out better the other side...eventually.

In real time, this time, we're seeing that not everyone comes out the other side, and still pressing forward regardless.

 

[Fermion]

The Sturgis rally will be interesting...

 

[athena53]

And we didn't do it right, right from the beginning. People were crowding the big box home improvement stores during that strict lockdown, which was nearly in every state. People were constantly going to grocery stores to find their favorite item, which they really didn't need. They just wanted it and were panicking because it was out and were apparently afraid they'd never find it again. Reports right here had people going to 4 or 5 stores per day. And this was during the time when it was said, "Masks don't work."

Sadly, we never killed the fire. This was part of the reason.

First, I have to admit to having gotten on a plane for a South American tour (cut short a week later) on March 10. I like to think I'm pretty good at assimilating information when there's a lot of uncertainty and making reasonable decisions, but maybe that was not one of them- and we didn't have a lot of info back then about how it was and was not spread.

But yes, when I came home and immediately made grocery runs to replenish supplies I saw whole families at Costco, and posts on other Boards from people running from store to store to find whatever they needed to hoard (flour and yeast were big). In my son's family, he was designated as grocery shopper (they had 3 little ones at home) and he saw whole families in the Costco in his city as well. I also saw a lot of couples- why put two people at risk?

I wasn't perfect but the precautions I've taken the past 4 months have worked so far. Knock wood.

 

[audreyh1]

The Sturgis rally will be interesting...

Yeah, sounds challenging. I wouldn’t want to be a resident of Sturgis, but the fallout could also be very widespread.

‘We cannot stop people’: 250,000 are expected at a South Dakota motorcycle rally https://time.com/5875694/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-coronavirus/

 

[RAE]

We, as a nation, keep looking for the easy way out. But there simply is no easy way out. We already know what we must do - everyone stays home, alone, as much as possible. If we absolutely must come into contact with other people, we mask up and practice social distancing. That is how we defeat this virus. I know it's hard to do the right things. To quote the late, great Khan, "it sucks moose balls". But we must. Our collective inability to make the hard choices and do the right things, even when we would rather not, is what will doom us.

Yes, a lot of people do look for the easy way out. And even people that know they should do the right thing get bored eventually, and start resuming activities that are high risk. But it goes beyond that. A significant percentage of our population have very poor understanding of science, unfortunately. As a result, these folks simply do not believe what the scientists tell us we have to do to slow down the spread of this virus. And of course, everything gets politicized these days, even things like this pandemic, which really has nothing to do with politics.

So yeah, it's a mess. And I am not optimistic things will change anytime soon.

 

[harllee]

And people lie, lie, lie about risky activities. Since March I have friends that I talk to by phone who tell me they are strictly staying safe, going nowhere, etc. Then later on in the conversation I will ask these same friends "What have you been doing lately?" and the answer is --I went to the grocery 3 times this week, out to eat twice, to Church, to see the grandkids, to a cook out. And they think they are staying home and taking it safe? When these people catch the virus will they lie and tell the contract tracer they have been nowhere? I now know which of my "friends" to avoid at all costs.

 

[CDRE]

The NASCAR All-Star race was held in Bristol, Tennessee on July 15th and was attended by 20K people. The event COVID-19 precautions included a requirement to wear a mask upon entry into the open air stadium and a maximum of 30K attendees (max not approached). Attendees were not required to wear a mask while seated. Many were observed without a mask while in lines to purchase concessions and memorabilia.


The following article indicates that they may have dodged the Super-spreader status:
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nascar-auto-racing/article244756652.html


Perhaps the open air stadium saved em'.

 

[harllee]

The NASCAR All-Star race was held in Bristol, Tennessee on July 15th and was attended by 20K people. The event COVID-19 precautions included a requirement to wear a mask upon entry into the open air stadium and a maximum of 30K attendees (max not approached). Attendees were not required to wear a mask while seated. Many were observed without a mask while in lines to purchase concessions and memorabilia.


The following article indicates that they may have dodged the Super-spreader status:
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nascar-auto-racing/article244756652.html


Perhaps the open air stadium saved em'.

But according to the article the reporters only talked to the tracers in the county where the race took place. It would be my guess that many of the 20,000 attendees were from other counties (the town of Bristol only has a population of 25,000). So if the majority of the attendees where from other places there is no telling how many took the virus back home.

 

[rodi]

Interesting about the family gatherings. My sister and I are close knit. But we are separate households. We have had her over for backyard dinners - but with carefully crafted seating to ensure we are more than 6' apart when eating. (small side tables rather than the patio dining table.) I see her most mornings for a walk on the beach - but we drive separate, keep a distance between us, and wear masks. Family doesn't mean she can't get or transmit covid...

I see a lot of people that seem to think relatives (from different households) don't "count" when it comes to maintaining physical distance and needing to wear a mask.

We, as a country, are pretty dense.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Yeah, sounds challenging. I wouldn’t want to be a resident of Sturgis, but the fallout could also be very widespread.

‘We cannot stop people’: 250,000 are expected at a South Dakota motorcycle rally https://time.com/5875694/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-coronavirus/

One summer I took a road trip from the Seattle area along I-90 to Spokane, through north Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, back through Idaho, Oregon, and back home--hitting most of the well-known national landmarks along the way. When I first set out, I didn't realize that this was Sturgis Bike Rally week (or two). Man, the bikers were everywhere along that trip. I had to sleep in my car many nights because it seemed that every bed along the way, in every nook and cranny, was booked by bikers (judging by "No Vacancy" signs and motorcycles parked outside).

That was some 20 years ago. I can only imagine today. A potential "super spreader" event may be the understatement of the month. All those 250,000 visitors are gonna go back home--throughout the USA... all over the place. We may know by the end of this month what effect Sturgis had on the nation--if any. (The City of Sturgis is gonna Covid-test its 7,000 residents once the bikers have left, I hear.)

 

[meierlde]

I had to copy this post from another Covid thread. Talk about a super spreader event! This CDC report was just released.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection Among Attendees of an Overnight Camp — Georgia, June 2020

260 of 344 individuals who were tested following a summer camp were found positive - 76%! This included a large number of children. Trainees and staff had been there a week, then were joined by the young campers the following week. There were 597 attendees total. Some steps had been taken to avoid spread, but not all the recommendations. All trainees, staff members, and campers had to provide documentation of a negative viral SARS-CoV-2 test ≤12 days before arriving.


This virus keeps demonstrating that given the right environment/situation, it is just unbelievably contagious.

My understanding was that folks slept in the camp more like barracks style up to 16 to a room with fairly poor ventilation. (likely with Ac since this was in Georgia) So this hits the length of time factor big time with 8 hours or so a day for several days. Of course up till now the big factor has been to reduce outside air intrusion to make ac more efficient, but of course this conflicts with covid safety.


A thought there are whole house fans and if you left the windows open with a strong fan you get 3-6 replacements per hour. Good ventilation but requires the ac to be turned off.

 

[audreyh1]

I see a lot of people that seem to think relatives (from different households) don't "count" when it comes to maintaining physical distance and needing to wear a mask.

We, as a country, are pretty dense.

Yes, it seems like many people have a hard time understanding that even family from a separate household can spread the virus to you, and the same precautions are required. Maybe people feel like it’s rude to wear masks or social distances from family, but relatives are still a risk. So much spread is happening by extended families getting together.

 

[audreyh1]

Same topic - that family gatherings must somehow be exceptions to contagion:

In June, long after the virus' hold on most of the U.S. had been widely reported, Tony Green, 43, held a small family gathering at his home in Dallas. He had been getting frustrated by state and federal government guidance about social distancing. “It’s family. You know we haven't seen each other in a few months, and to think that you can’t embrace each other, hug my mum? Give me a break. Of course I’m going to hug her,” Green said.

Green, a self-identified gay conservative, quickly regretted the get-together. Just days later, 14 members of his family had fallen ill with the coronavirus. His partner’s grandmother died. Green himself was hospitalized, his central nervous system attacked by the virus, his bed in the ICU just one floor below his father-in-law, Rafael Ceja. Ceja remains on life support, almost two months after the gathering.

They thought COVID was a hoax, until they fell ill https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/they-thought-covid-was-hoax-until-they-fell-ill-n1236183

 

[rodi]

My understanding was that folks slept in the camp more like barracks style up to 16 to a room with fairly poor ventilation. (likely with Ac since this was in Georgia) So this hits the length of time factor big time with 8 hours or so a day for several days. Of course up till now the big factor has been to reduce outside air intrusion to make ac more efficient, but of course this conflicts with covid safety.


A thought there are whole house fans and if you left the windows open with a strong fan you get 3-6 replacements per hour. Good ventilation but requires the ac to be turned off.

The whole house fan is the compromise we've come up with for when our son's girlfriend visits. More than half of their relationship has been during the time of covid. Her household is also cautious. She and we wear masks when she is over and we out the whole house fan on. We kept them apart for the first two months.... But eventually caved to this solution after making sure her family was in the same page as far as being super cautious. The whole house fan works great here in San Diego. We don't have AC.

And even though she's here a few times a week, meals together are outside and physically distanced and we and she have masks on when she's in the same room (and the whole house fan is on).

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t know if we’ll ever get the full picture on this, because visitors are so far flung and spread out I suppose. Didn’t they say 460,000 motorcycles showed up? So far some recent Nebraska and Minnesota cases tied to Sturgis rally, a Sturgis tattoo worker tested positive, that bar that was already reported a few days ago.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/21/us/sturgis-motorcyle-rally-sd-covid-nebraska-trnd/index.html