Super-spreader Situations

[jollystomper]

That’s tough. They could still get married legally and have a big gathering wedding ceremony later. We know someone who did that for other reasons.

That is what 2 of my nephews did. Both got married in small, local-immediately family only ceremonies (one was close enough for us to do a "drive-by" greeting), with bigger gatherings planned for mid-2021.

This is just a gut feel for me - it seems that when food/drink is present at these gatherings, the more likely the virus may spread. Maybe those things work to break down social distancing, mask removal, eating, etc.

 

[jollystomper]

I wonder about golf courses. They're so crowded these days. My DH golfs @ twice/week. They take separate carts. Do not wear masks. He seems to think he's totally safe out there on the course.

I golf practically every day, and I feel very safe. I try to walk the course whenever I can. It is very easy to social distance in that manner.

Using separate carts it also easy. It also makes the game go faster, as everyone can drive to their ball and hit in an more efficient manner. Some courses are starting to charge extra for a separate cart, but in most cases the charge is not too bad.

I have only shared a cart with one other person, a friend I have been around for several months who also takes precautions, so I was comfortable with that. We both wore masks while in the cart. If the course tried to put with with a stranger in a cart I would not play.

 

[jollystomper]

Colleges and universities are reopening and then closing after big outbreaks. They are sending the students back home all over the country. A super super spreader event.

Colleges tend to be super spreaders from all kinds of viruses, due to the general crowding (not supposed to be in this case) and student sanitary behavioral conditions (more likely).

 

[JoeWras]

Colleges tend to be super spreaders from all kinds of viruses, due to the general crowding (not supposed to be in this case) and student sanitary behavioral conditions (more likely).

Meningitis is a good example of a disease that spreads on campus.

I was putting away some papers recently and saw my MMR immunization record from the early 80s at the college clinic. I vaguely recall some outbreak, and a request for mass vaccinations. I think it was rubella, which was late to the vaccine portfolio, and many of us didn't ever have the vaccine, or had a weak version.

 

[Scrapr]

it's the 19th hole that's a bigger concern imo.

is that the Par 5 dogleg left?

 

[Corporateburnout]

DD and her fiance canceled their 150 people wedding scheduled for May 2021. They didn't think that Covid risk would be any lower by then. Instead they plan to have an outdoor ceremony by his family's lake house for the 15 member family. A big bash will follow in 2022 for extended family members and friends.

 

[acronymous]

Las Vegas casinos have been super spreading since June 4th.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...gas-is-gambling-with-lives-across-the-country

 

[beanctr88]

DD and her fiance canceled their 150 people wedding scheduled for May 2021. They didn't think that Covid risk would be any lower by then. Instead they plan to have an outdoor ceremony by his family's lake house for the 15 member family. A big bash will follow in 2022 for extended family members and friends.

My daughter is going to be married in March 2021. The wedding is to be outdoors, but the seated dinner and reception is inside. Our best guess right now is that about 175 friends and family would attend. But the ladies are making contingency plans if we have to limit the total guests to 100 and a second list as small as 50. That might make for some interesting conversations with people you don’t get to invite getting feelings hurt.

It is hard to tell how things will be going 7 months down the road, we are proceeding as if everything will be ok for the full party, but won’t be surprised if we have to scale it back.

 

[CardsFan]

DS and future DDIL have postponed their wedding from December 2020 to November 2021.

There is a chance they will get married on the original date, with only close family present, and then a follow-up service and reception in November 2021. We will see. What ever they decide, we will support.

Future DDIL's mom is very compromised, and I am sure that is a priority concern, as it should be.

 

[Corporateburnout]

My daughter is going to be married in March 2021. The wedding is to be outdoors, but the seated dinner and reception is inside. Our best guess right now is that about 175 friends and family would attend. But the ladies are making contingency plans if we have to limit the total guests to 100 and a second list as small as 50. That might make for some interesting conversations with people you don’t get to invite getting feelings hurt.

It is hard to tell how things will be going 7 months down the road, we are proceeding as if everything will be ok for the full party, but won’t be surprised if we have to scale it back.

In our state the current gathering restrictions are 25 indoors and 50 outdoors. If things stay the same, it would be extremely difficult to scale down from 150 guests to 25.

 

[KCGeezer]

DD just got married as well. With high risk people on both sides they decided to do a zoom meeting and had 20 or so ‘attendees’. They then did a road trip to visit both immediate families. Next year they hopefully will have a larger event where friends and extended families will have a chance to wish them well. Made a lot of sense but I know it wasn’t her first choice.

 

[Golden sunsets]

65 people attended an indoor wedding held in Maine in violation of the Governor's max 50 person limit a couple of weeks ago at a place called Big Moose Lodge. 38 people, who either attended the event or were in contact with an attendee have thus far tested positive. The first death of one of those infected occurred yesterday. And that person was not an attendee. This super spreader event has been enough to spike ME's numbers, which have been very low. The lodge has been sanctioned and will lose licenses if they hold another such event. I can't imagine how the bridal couple must feel, having been directly responsible for someone's death. The memory of their wedding will always be tainted.

In today's news, the number of infected people tied to this event has now increased from 38 to 53. It's small in comparison to spreader events like Sturgis, but even in small situations such as this wedding, the damage done is breathtaking.

 

[Rianne]

it's the 19th hole that's a bigger concern imo.

Haha, that 19th hole has me concerned as well. He always comes home with this big explanation...our table was at the very end...we were more than 2 chairs apart...there was a really good breeze...only stayed for 1 or 2. When he gets home, sprays the air with Lysol, goes directly to the washing machine, washes all his clothes. Then directly to the shower.

 

[Corporateburnout]

How about this for a super spreader event?

https://patch.com/massachusetts/rea...ce-led-20-000-ma-coronavirus-infections-study

Biogen conference originally thought to have caused 99 infections is now believed to have led to 20,000 infections

 

[audreyh1]

How about this for a super spreader event?

https://patch.com/massachusetts/rea...ce-led-20-000-ma-coronavirus-infections-study

Biogen conference originally thought to have caused 99 infections is now believed to have led to 20,000 infections

Yes, the Biogen conference was when I started to get really worried about Covid. I read about it a few weeks after the event. That’s when I finally understood how unbelievably infectious Covid was. I instinctively knew that such events must be happening all over the country as so many people traveled alll over the place on business and then returned home. It seems huge spread was inevitable.

But, wow, 20,000 infections linked to that event!

 

[audreyh1]

This NPR article discusses why Covid-19 is so “superspready”
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa.../why-the-novel-coronavirus-is-so-superspready

 

[retire-early]

Just as predicted Sturgis rally is super spreader event.
Sigh.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-spreads-coronavirus-8-states-as-experts-warned-2020-8

My sister worked for Biogen in Boston as a contractor.
She tested negative for Covid-19 and positive for the flu.
I am not convinced she did not have Covid-19.
She had to jump through hoops to get tested back at the end of March.

.

 

[JoeWras]

Yes, the Biogen conference was when I started to get really worried about Covid. I read about it a few weeks after the event. That’s when I finally understood how unbelievably infectious Covid was. I instinctively knew that such events must be happening all over the country as so many people traveled alll over the place on business and then returned home. It seems huge spread was inevitable.

But, wow, 20,000 infections linked to that event!

DW's niece ultimately got it from this conference. DW's husband's boss went to the conference. Flew back to the west coast. Boss got sick, husband subsequently got sick, niece got sick.

Niece and husband were never tested at that time because tests were precious and boss was tested positive as part of contact tracing from that event. So they just assumed they had it.

Both were tested for antibodies in July and tested positive, yes, more than 3 months later.

 

[audreyh1]

Just as predicted Sturgis rally is super spreader event.
Sigh.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-spreads-coronavirus-8-states-as-experts-warned-2020-8

My sister worked for Biogen in Boston as a contractor.
She tested negative for Covid-19 and positive for the flu.
I am not convinced she did not have Covid-19.
She had to jump through hoops to get tested back at the end of March.

.

The huge scale of the rally - it’s got to be way more than 100 cases. But as invisible as community spread is, and as widespread the attendees, I wonder how many cases will ultimately be linked.

 

[retire-early]

The huge scale of the rally - it’s got to be way more than 100 cases. But as invisible as community spread is, and as widespread the attendees, I wonder how many cases will ultimately be linked.

I don't know if people have listened to Michael Osterholm's weekly Covid-19 podcast. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Some college students were being uncooperative in both quarantining when testing positive and providing contacts for contract tracing. This may partially explain the difficulty in contract tracing for Sturgis.

In the lastest August 27 podcats he is predicting that we are in the lull before the next storm.
It is a rather pessimistic outlook.
If he is correct, come late September to October we will experience a surge similar to late July.
He estimates that at most 15-20% of Americans have been infected which is a long way off from 50-70% for herd immunity.

He also is worried about the FDA being politicized.
Essentially the EUA Emergency Use Authorization for Remdisivir turns out to be not a game changer.

.

 

[sengsational]

This NPR article discusses why Covid-19 is so “superspready”
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa.../why-the-novel-coronavirus-is-so-superspready

If we can get rid of these super spreader events, that would go a long way. They repeat the "viral load is high before symptoms" observation, and also introduce a "sticky mucus" idea. Both of those suggest that a paper (no machine) antigen test that delivered results in 10 minutes is what we need as a public health tool (not for diagnostics, obviously). You keep these mega spewers away from gatherings and we do a smakdown on the virus. I understand the US is slow to allow this type of testing, but don't know about if other countries are promoting the "at home" or "at the door" tests.

 

[gerntz]

I just don’t get why people go ahead with these large weddings, etc., ignoring the risks to their guests.

I do observe that even if they had limited it to 50 attendees the outcome would have probably been about the same or just slightly less worse.

Guests that come anyway create their own risks, not the invite. We didn't attend a close relative's wedding in May. Just a big no thanks.

 

[audreyh1]

I don't know if people have listened to Michael Osterholm's weekly Covid-19 podcast. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Some college students were being uncooperative in both quarantining when testing positive and providing contacts for contract tracing. This may partially explain the difficulty in contract tracing for Sturgis.

In the lastest August 27 podcats he is predicting that we are in the lull before the next storm.
It is a rather pessimistic outlook.
If he is correct, come late September to October we will experience a surge similar to late July.
He estimates that at most 15-20% of Americans have been infected which is a long way off from 50-70% for herd immunity.

He also is worried about the FDA being politicized.
Essentially the EUA Emergency Use Authorization for Remdisivir turns out to be not a game changer.

.

He seems to be one of the more pessimistic epidemiologists.

But several Sturgis attendees openly vowed not even to quarantine themselves if they tested positive, so I think we can assume minimal to no cooperation with health departments in many cases. At least some attendees have cooperated, otherwise we would have no reports at all.

In the meantime - many of the attendees hanging out maskless in bars/concerts look like age and comorbidities aren’t in their favor.

 

[audreyh1]

If we can get rid of these super spreader events, that would go a long way. They repeat the "viral load is high before symptoms" observation, and also introduce a "sticky mucus" idea. Both of those suggest that a paper (no machine) antigen test that delivered results in 10 minutes is what we need as a public health tool (not for diagnostics, obviously). You keep these mega spewers away from gatherings and we do a smakdown on the virus. I understand the US is slow to allow this type of testing, but don't know about if other countries are promoting the "at home" or "at the door" tests.

Yes, avoiding/getting rid of the super spreader events is the biggest tool.

If we could quickly identify and isolate the walking [-]dead[/-] mega spewers, that would be great. Businesses can be made much safer.

 

[Gumby]

But several Sturgis attendees openly vowed not even to quarantine themselves if they tested positive, so I think we can assume minimal to no cooperation with health departments in many cases. At least some attendees have cooperated,

That would be the first question on my hospital intake form. "Did you go to Sturgis?" If yes, go directly back home, you get no treatment. I hope it was worth it to you.