Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[robnplunder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whisper66 And yet the highly expected spike in deaths has not yet occurred (trend is down -

The spike happened back in April unless there is a second spike to come. But with 4500+ total deaths already and ranked 5th in death per million among nations with > 1 million, I hope there is no 2nd spike. Hopefully, the new infection spike is mostly among less vulnerable (young and the restless).

[lucky penny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordjust Robnplunder where are you getting your numbers ? I can't find any numbers to match.

Here's one site that shows the numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordjust I even see this one https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-la...eks/a-53636403

No deaths reported on June 1, but 65 on June 3, 74 on June 4, 77 on June 5. Well below the April spike, but daily new cases are increasing.

[robnplunder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordjust Robnplunder where are you getting your numbers ? I can’t find any articles to match. I even see this one https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-la...eks/a-53636403

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/. The number spike in the last two days is odd.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by robnplunder https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/. The cases number spike in the last two days is odd.

I wouldn't put too much faith in a spike in cases, could just be a spike in testing. Time will tell re: deaths, could lag cases by 2 weeks plus/minus, but that trend is decidedly down so far. Again, it's clear they're not going to have the best record (several Asian countries & Germany win there), but we won't know how Sweden fared until it's all over everywhere...

[robnplunder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I wouldn't put too much faith in a spike in cases, could just be a spike in testing. Time will tell re: deaths, could lag cases by 2 weeks plus/minus, but that trend is decidedly down so far. Again, it's clear they're not going to have the best record (several Asian countries & Germany win there), but we won't know how Sweden fared until it's all over everywhere...

No doubt that when it is over, there will be many countries that fared worse than Sweden did. One of my points I have been making in "Corona" threads (this and in other forums) is that Sweden is a rich country with resources. It didn't have to pick this strategy. So many have died unnecessarily, before their time. They should not have been "experimented" with.

[ItDontMeanAThing]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordjust Robnplunder where are you getting your numbers ? I can’t find any articles to match.

His numbers match this source https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

[lordjust]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ItDontMeanAThing His numbers match this source https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Thanks!

[lordjust]

Quote:

Originally Posted by robnplunder No doubt that when it is over, there will be many countries that fared worse than Sweden did. One of my points I have been making in "Corona" threads (this and in other forums) is that Sweden is a rich country with resources. It didn't have to pick this strategy. So many have died unnecessarily, before their time. They should not have been "experimented" with.

Maybe so. If other countries did lock down and as you say will end up faring worse... does that mean a lock down wasnt effective either? I believe the thought was NOT to destroy their economy. Clearly, if their economy was negatively impacted the same as similar countries that failed. They also "currently" had a larger loss of life , as you say they died much sooner in most cases. The most vulnerable and especially LTC's should be better protected... lets just say i cannot seem to get any of my family members to let me put them in (now or in the future ).

This wont be the last time we have a "corona virus" hit the world in our lifetimes. Hopefully the faulty data models will be better and we will have a better response. We can follow Korea and Thailand since they have so much more experience (quarantine, masks, gloves). I would also prefer there not be an incentive for the providers of healthcare to mark patients as covid positive just to get more money from the WHO and government agencies.

[harllee]

Do any of the reports look at numbers of people who will have long term disabilities from Covid-19 (especially permanent lung damage)? I wonder in a country like Sweden where they are letting the virus run its course are they keeping up with how many people have long term lung damage or other similar long term problems? I wonder what will the cost will be to the Sweden to deal with a large number of Covid-19 disabled people?

[donheff]

Ars Tehcnica has a pretty good summary of Sweden's results. Their concluding paragraphs:

"These numbers paint a clear picture: Sweden's attempt to protect its most vulnerable hasn't been very successful. In terms of its disease burden and death rate, the country is paying a far higher price than its neighbors. Those statistics are likely to be contributing to the suppression of domestic economic activity, as people are less likely to fully engage in an economy while being fed a steady stream of news about the pandemic's impact on Swedish health.

And while Sweden's economy may not suffer as bad as that of some other European countries, its heavy integration into the world economy has greatly reduced its ability to avoid the global damage the pandemic has caused.

Put differently, many public health experts and economists warned that we didn't really face a binary choice between public health and the economy. Whatever other lessons will ultimately be drawn from the Swedish experience, it has strongly demonstrated that the experts were right."

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee Do any of the reports look at numbers of people who will have long term disabilities from Covid-19 (especially permanent lung damage)? I wonder in a country like Sweden where they are letting the virus run its course are they keeping up with how many people have long term lung damage or other similar long term problems? I wonder what will the cost will be to the Sweden to deal with a large number of Covid-19 disabled people?

+1

You ask very good questions. For some reason we (or is it the media) is fascinated only with people who perish. Crippled for life? More vulnerable to future lung problems? Those do not seem to be an issue. We see the same reporting deficiency in times of war.

[harllee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut +1 You ask very good questions. For some reason we (or is it the media) is fascinated only with people who perish. Crippled for life? More vulnerable to future lung problems? Those do not seem to be an issue. We see the same reporting deficiency in times of war.

Chuckanut, it is probably going to take years before we know the true long term disability impact of Covid-19. There could even be a "Shingles" type after effect that could occur years later. A country like Sweden could feel the full impact of the disease for years. The reason I am tuned into the long term disability issue is that I know 4 people with severe Covid 19--one died (elderly) and it appears that the other 3 will have permanent lungs issues (and they are age 40-50).

[6miths]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut +1 You ask very good questions. For some reason we (or is it the media) is fascinated only with people who perish. Crippled for life? More vulnerable to future lung problems? Those do not seem to be an issue. We see the same reporting deficiency in times of war.

We see this reporting deficiency every day. Morbidity and causality can be very difficult things to quantify and determine. Even in reporting mortality there can be difficulty in establishing the true impact of a disease/condition/situation. I think it is we, the media, and the difficulties in getting the information.

[Ian S]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harllee Do any of the reports look at numbers of people who will have long term disabilities from Covid-19 (especially permanent lung damage)? I wonder in a country like Sweden where they are letting the virus run its course are they keeping up with how many people have long term lung damage or other similar long term problems? I wonder what will the cost will be to the Sweden to deal with a large number of Covid-19 disabled people?

Here's an article about so-called "long-haulers" who don't seem to be getting over the illness. Because they were never hospitalized, they are considered to have "mild" cases but they in reality they are unable to function in every day life as the disease continues to incapacitate them for months. Not a pretty picture. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...months/612679/

[harllee]

Ian S, thank you for that informative Atlantic Article about Covid 19 disabilities. Scary stuff especially since most of the people who are having long term effects are in their 40-50s and start off with "mild" symptoms.

Again, I wonder if Sweden is looking into this. I have done a brief amount of research and cannot find any discussion about the Covid 19 disability issue in Sweden.

[robnplunder]

Recent Sweden daily infection tallies have been inaccurate (posted then corrected) but the trend is definitely up. However, death is trending down slightly. They are doing a better job defending their vulnerable. (COVID 19 is not losing its potency. Just ask the South Americans).

[audreyh1]

It does seem that lots of countries are improving in terms of treatments, social distancing - particularly still bans on large group gatherings which Sweden also observes, and taking more care in institutions, that make it appear as if the virus is less deadly.

But yeah, some countries still being ravaged.

[ItDontMeanAThing]

Quote:

Originally Posted by robnplunder Recent Sweden daily infection tallies have been inaccurate (posted then corrected) but the trend is definitely up. However, death is trending down slightly.

I see we use different sources. Care to share your information source?

From 24 April to 31 May the 7 day moving average of the number of new cases ranged between 622 and 618. It has increased since 1 June. From 24 April to now the 7 day moving average of the number of deaths has dropped from 108 to 37.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

[JustVisitingThisPlanet]

I don't particularly support what Sweden did (they maybe should've at least required masks) but if Sweden were a US state they'd rank about 9th in death rate. Of course reporting methodologies vary.

Sort by Deaths/1M, Sweden is currently 465...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/