Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[Midpack]

That’s what the report I heard called Sweden’s decidedly different response to the Coronavirus. Sweden is banking on a “strategy of building broad immunity while protecting at-risk groups” - for the 80% healthy low risk citizens to become infected and develop resistance and keeping the economy largely going throughout. Some have called it “Russian roulette” and it could end in disaster.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...keeping-swedish-residents-at-home/ar-BB11Spqq

Coronavirus pandemic not keeping Swedish residents at home

People still sit at outdoor cafes in the centre of Sweden’s capital. Vendors still sell flowers. Teenagers still chat in groups in parks. Some still greet each other with hugs and handshakes.

Swedish authorities have advised the public to practise social distancing and to work from home, if possible, and urged those over age 70 to self-isolate as a precaution.

Yet compared to the lockdowns imposed elsewhere in the world, the government’s response to the virus allows a liberal amount of personal freedom.

High schools and universities are closed, but pre-schools and primary schools are still running classes in person.

For now, the Swedish government maintains that citizens can be trusted to exercise responsibility for the greater good and will stay home if they experience any Covid-19 symptoms.

Sweden’s current chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, argued that even if the country’s comparatively permissive policies are an anomaly, they are more sustainable and effective in protecting the public’s health than “drastic” moves like closing schools for four or five months.

We have to combine looking at minimising the health effects of the virus outbreak and the economic impacts of this health crisis," says Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, CEO at the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.
"The business community here really thinks that the Swedish government and the Swedish approach is more sensible than in many other countries."

 

[Ready]

Sweden is where the US was about 2-3 weeks ago. We were encouraging restaurants to operate at 50% capacity and we were warning citizens who are older or have health issues to stay home. Half the states in our country still have not shut down businesses to a significant degree.

Time will tell if they can keep this up but if the infection and death rate rises rapidly I bet they will end up the same place we are at within a few weeks.

 

[Freedom56]

Sweden will soon realize that this is a coronavirus not influenza. It's not even clear if you can develop immunity or the virus just goes dormant.

 

[cooch96]

It seems a rational approach to me. Good luck to them.

 

[Teacher Terry]

This will end in a few weeks.

 

[audreyh1]

South Korea avoided shutting things down through early and extensive testing, contact tracing, and quarantining. If a country has that capability, they can follow the same path without overwhelming their hospitals.

 

[Ian S]

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that this bold experiment would fail.

 

[RobbieB]

I hope it succeeds. Natural selection, survival of the fittest. Darwin would be proud.

 

[Walt34]

Wow, talk about rolling the dice! I do hope it works for them, but it'll be tragic if it fails.

 

[audreyh1]

Maybe they have massive hospital capacity.

 

[NW-Bound]

Maybe they have massive hospital capacity.

Ah, the Web is my friend.

Sweden, population of 10.12 million, 22377 hospital beds (2017). That's 2.2 beds per 1000.

For the US, the number is 2.8 beds per 1000. Italy: 3.2 beds per 1000.

The UK and Canada are comparable to the US.

Here are the shocking numbers.

Japan leads with 13 beds/1000. Next is South Korea with 12 beds/1000. Germany is 8 beds/1000.

So, perhaps Swedes have good genes to fight diseases? They don't need no stinkin' hospitals, while other weakling countries need more?

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's an article with some insights. Swedes are introverts, and live alone. They don't live in large families like Italians and Spaniards. They also like to maintain personal space out in public, and already practice "social distancing", virus or not.

See: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200328-how-to-self-isolate-what-we-can-learn-from-sweden

 

[Ready]

On March 13th I posted a thread regarding my observations eating in restaurants:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f55/restaurants-102593.html

My concern was that the woman refilling my water glass kept picking it up with her bare hands. The restaurant I was eating at was completely full. Whoever was sitting next to me was at most two feet away from me.

Restaurants were still operating at full capacity. School was still open. Gyms and health clubs were still open. Retails stores were still open.

That was 16 days ago. Look how much life has changed since then. I knew when I wrote that post that things were getting bad and I was surprised we were being so casual in this country rather than implementing extreme measures to curb the virus. My friends thought I was being too alarmist. They were casting me off as an oddball that was panicking over nothing.

That is where I see Sweden right now.

 

[Freedom56]

They are trying a similar approach in the Netherlands and many are rethinking that approach as the numbers climb. Now they are looking at a light version of a lock down.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...wn-holland-hit-hard-by-covid-19/#564d313e3557

 

[razztazz]

They are trying a similar approach in the Netherlands and many are rethinking that approach as the numbers climb. Now they are looking at a light version of a lock down.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...wn-holland-hit-hard-by-covid-19/#564d313e3557

Isn't this basically what England was doing? They were catching flak for it but I haven't heard anything as to how it's working or how bad it's getting.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

Isn't this basically what England was doing? They were catching flak for it but I haven't heard anything as to how it's working or how bad it's getting.

At the moment, the US has twice as many deaths as the UK, but we have about 5 times as many people (population size).

Info from this site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Based on the confirmed counts, it looks like they're doing less testing (even adjusted for population size).

 

[Sunset]

Isn't this basically what England was doing? They were catching flak for it but I haven't heard anything as to how it's working or how bad it's getting.

It failed, now they are at:
Stay at home

• Only go outside for food, health reasons or work (but only if you cannot work from home)
• If you go out, stay 2 metres (6ft) away from other people at all times
• Wash your hands as soon as you get home

Do not meet others, even friends or family.
You can spread the virus even if you don’t have symptoms.



https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

 

[razztazz]

It failed, now they are at:
Stay at home

• Only go outside for food, health reasons or work (but only if you cannot work from home)
• If you go out, stay 2 metres (6ft) away from other people at all times
• Wash your hands as soon as you get home

Do not meet others, even friends or family.
You can spread the virus even if you don’t have symptoms.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Ok. I guess it wasn't working

 

[Sunset]

Ok. I guess it wasn't working

And, their Prime Minister, and Health Minister both have it

https://www.timesunion.com/news/wor...net-member-has-COVID-19-symptoms-15163702.php

 

[tinlizzy]

Japan also eased restrictions and the virus took off again and they sent everyone back indoors.

 

[audreyh1]

They are trying a similar approach in the Netherlands and many are rethinking that approach as the numbers climb. Now they are looking at a light version of a lock down.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...wn-holland-hit-hard-by-covid-19/#564d313e3557

Schools have been closed in the Amsterdam for at least a couple of weeks - it’s lessons at home. They are having to stay at home and only go out for groceries and pharmacy. Parks are closed - they can occasionally go out for bicycle ride or walk for exercise. Concert venues are shut down in multiple cities - no work for DB. So it seems to me Amsterdam at least is very much sheltering in place like several areas of the US, and maybe started a bit sooner. DB and family live there and we FaceTime once or twice a week.

 

[Midpack]

I agree with those who think Sweden is going to lose their bet, just didn’t want to say it in post #1. As others have noted, the UK tried Sweden’s approach and quickly changed course. I’d say the US was late to respond, though for lack of direction more than Sweden, they’re very deliberately taking a different approach.

I don’t know why we haven’t studied China and especially South Korea more closely, maybe the real experts (not politicians) in DC have. We’ve already proven our path hasn’t been as effective.

 

[JoeWras]

Isn't this basically what England was doing? They were catching flak for it but I haven't heard anything as to how it's working or how bad it's getting.

At the moment, the US has twice as many deaths as the UK, but we have about 5 times as many people (population size).

Info from this site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Based on the confirmed counts, it looks like they're doing less testing (even adjusted for population size).

Watched a bit of international news this morning. Basically, the stories from the UK mirror everything here. Not enough testing, not enough PPE, overwhelmed workers, etc.

Because the media is unreliable, not sure what this means on the ground. For all I know, they are just trying to get ratings. It is working in the USA.

 

[Alan]

Isn't this basically what England was doing? They were catching flak for it but I haven't heard anything as to how it's working or how bad it's getting.

They changed tactics immediately after the Imperial College study was released and discussed widely by the author of the report Professor Neil Ferguson, who now has the virus himself. It may well have been him that passed the virus onto the PM and several others as he had many meetings with them.

We were advised to practice social distancing and cafes, pubs and restaurants advised to close but it wasn’t taken seriously enough so we have been in strict and enforced lockdown for exactly 1 week today. Yesterday’s briefing was that it will be evaluated in a couple of more weeks but expect this to continue for 3 to 6 months. If they continue to keep the hospitals from exceeding capacity they will ease off the restrictions now and again, but we should not expect that.

Prof Ferguson’s latest forecast is that the UK’s service will cope with the restrictions in place. (They are converting conference centers to be field hospitals among many other ongoing efforts).

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

 

[Alan]

I hope Sweden are successful in their approach, I think every nation has differences in their society which may mean that different approaches to this problem are appropriate.

Russia initially said they were in full control, but within weeks Russian TV was showing their president in full hazmat gear on the frontlines fighting the pandemic. The mayor of Moscow today announced extremely strict social isolation rules, where you can’t even walk your dog more than 100m from your home.