Testing and Contact Tracing - What Do We Need?

[jazz4cash]

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Originally Posted by gayl Ok you medical experts out there point out the fallacy in my thinking:: Oakland mayor states if you want to do something to your mother take her in for free Covid-19 testing tomorrow. So here's my question. So what if I test negative tomorrow? That just means I'm negative tomorrow. Am I supposed test every few days? My being negative tomorrow means nothing because I can catch it just a few days after that. So why would I go through what's described as an uncomfortable test just so they can have some random numbers?

The flaw in your thinking is that you may not test negative.

[gwraigty]

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Originally Posted by gayl Ok you medical experts out there point out the fallacy in my thinking:: Oakland mayor states if you want to do something to your mother take her in for free Covid-19 testing tomorrow. So here's my question. So what if I test negative tomorrow? That just means I'm negative tomorrow. Am I supposed test every few days? My being negative tomorrow means nothing because I can catch it just a few days after that. So why would I go through what's described as an uncomfortable test just so they can have some random numbers?

I'm not a medical expert, but I see it the same way. Unless you have some symptoms, I wouldn't bother.

I heard through the family grapevine yesterday that a BIL who owns a business in another state was having trouble with his employees. They weren't "working well", whatever that was supposed to mean. Details weren't given, but no one was symptomatic. So BIL called up his local health department and got permission to have all his employees tested for COVID-19. They all tested negative and he hasn't had any issues with them since. It surprises me for a couple of reasons. #1 - In my state, they wouldn't have been tested just to alleviate their concerns. #2 - What you said. Do they think a negative test makes them immune to ever getting it if they didn't already have it?

[Aerides]

It seems odd that some places are encouraging asymptomatic folks to get a PCR test vs. an antibody test, but it would make sense to do so if planning to return to work, if it becomes a regular thing.

Frequent testing of everyone, if it were readily available, would go a long way toward quickly isolating folks that are infected. So if was something simple and fast you could do every day to re-enter the workplace, great.

But randomly going and getting a single test when you're not sick and not planning to go out in a group seems like it might create a lot of twits who think that means they are never getting it...

[ivinsfan]

In our state they are now bragging anyone with even the "slightest" symptoms can roll in and get the test, they would like to do at least 10K a day.

Guess what they are barely doing 5K and now are complaining people won't come in for test...uhhh maybe after over 6 weeks of lockdown no one is actually sick?

The state is framing this as a bad thing...WTH...

[gayl]

Another question. We were sanitizing EVERYTHING continually when we were in self isolation. Friends still in lockdown do it. No one & nothing came in. What's the logic in that? My nearest neighbor is 40' away and my house is set back 25'. Isn't that far enough. I thought there were 6 cases in my city but I've been corrected. There were 5.

[CountryGal]

I think there is a misconception of testing in a lot of people, including some at the top. The reason we need so much testing is to isolate the sick and not everyone. Right now our only tool is to isolate everyone. A large percentage of folks are infected with no symptoms and are spreading the virus to everyone around them. If I had to work somewhere, I would want to know that the people I work with are "safe" and that they are periodically tested. Those infected must then be isolated.

Based on the lack of testing in our area, I will not be going anywhere even when things "open". If others feel the same there will be a lot of places going out of business.

[Midpack]

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Originally Posted by CountryGal I think there is a misconception of testing in a lot of people, including some at the top. The reason we need so much testing is to isolate the sick and not everyone. Right now our only tool is to isolate everyone. A large percentage of folks are infected with no symptoms and are spreading the virus to everyone around them. If I had to work somewhere, I would want to know that the people I work with are "safe" and that they are periodically tested. Those infected must then be isolated. Based on the lack of testing in our area, I will not be going anywhere even when things "open". If others feel the same there will be a lot of places going out of business.

Then what? "Lots of places going out of business" has significant consequences for all of us too, no easy answers.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by Midpack Then what? "Lots of places going out of business" has significant consequences for all of us too, no easy answers.

So healthcare Russian roulette is a better choice? You seem to be implying that is the case.

[gwraigty]

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Originally Posted by Midpack Then what? "Lots of places going out of business" has significant consequences for all of us too, no easy answers.

+1

I can't believe that so many people appear not to understand that.

[Whisper66]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 So healthcare Russian roulette is a better choice? You seem to be implying that is the case.

Yes.

[harllee]

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Originally Posted by Midpack Then what? "Lots of places going out of business" has significant consequences for all of us too, no easy answers.

But isn't there a middle ground? Can't businesses adapt and provide an environment safer from the virus? I am thinking of a few local restaurants where we do curbside pick up. They seem to have caught on what needs to be done. I feel safe ordering from them and they seem to be doing a very good business. On the other hand one of our favorite restaurants has simply closed and has not tried to do any sort of pickup or delivery. I called the owner and he said he just cold not figure out how to do take out. Businesses like that may go under. Other businesses who figure it our may flourish.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by Midpack Then what? "Lots of places going out of business" has significant consequences for all of us too, no easy answers.

What’s the alternative? Many businesses are going to have fewer customers, especially if it seems unsafe to patronize/use the business in the near term. For example, how many here are flying or traveling for pleasure now or plan to do so the next 2 or 3 months.

For some businesses they will have enough customers to get through.

In addition to making the workplace environment safe by taking several precautions, employees having to work in a place of business with other workers and/or the public really need frequent testing to be able to contain outbreaks in the work environment and the resulting community spread. I think we’re going to be seeing that scenario playing out over and over during the coming weeks/months.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 What’s the alternative? Many businesses are going to have fewer customers, especially if it seems unsafe to patronize/use the business in the near term. For example, how many here are flying or traveling for pleasure now or plan to do so the next 2 or 3 months. For some businesses they will have enough customers to get through. In addition to making the workplace environment safe by taking several precautions, employees having to work in a place of business with other workers and/or the public really need frequent testing to be able to contain outbreaks in the work environment and the resulting community spread. I think we’re going to be seeing that scenario playing out over and over during the coming weeks/months.

A restaurant in the next county opened against the shutdown order. The pictures I have seen show the place packed with no distancing or masks. We will likely have lots of openings like this, retards contracting the rona like mad, and a second shelter in place that really will finish off both the dopes that insisted on opening as well as those who did not. So you will see a horrific depression and a bad second wave.

Whatever. I will hunker in the bunker. Good luck to all the mentally challenged.

[Midpack]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 So healthcare Russian roulette is a better choice? You seem to be implying that is the case.

I’m simply saying there are consequences to extending the lockdowns too, including health issues. We’ll never all agree on where to draw the line between minimizing coronavirus deaths and minimizing economic damage. And we have to decide without all the facts. I’m sure you remember being faced with decisions without all the facts and living what the outcome during your career - many of us did it often. Granted this is more serious, but it’s the same predicament.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by Midpack I’m simply saying there are consequences to extending the lockdowns too, including health issues. We’ll never all agree on where to draw the line between minimizing coronavirus deaths and minimizing economic damage. And we have to decide without all the facts. I’m sure you remember being faced with decisions without all the facts and living what the outcome during your career - many of us did it often. Granted this is more serious, but it’s the same predicament.

CountryGal’s post was not saying businesses should remain in lockdown, she was simply pointing out that there might be plenty of customers like her who don’t feel safe patronizing local businesses because there is little testing in her area.

This isn’t about keeping lockdowns indefinitely. Lockdowns in many places are being lifted and most businesses that want to can open back up or will be able to do so soon.

That does not mean that all their customers will come back right away, especially since covid-19 spread continues in the US and will probably accelerate.

So we are already stuck with a reduced economic situation because we continue to be in a pandemic which looks to go on for a long time. IMO incredible access to frequent testing in the work environment will help limit outbreaks. Limiting outbreaks will keep businesses safer, otherwise there will be even more negative economic outcomes.

[USGrant1962]

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Originally Posted by harllee But isn't there a middle ground? Can't businesses adapt and provide an environment safer from the virus? I am thinking of a few local restaurants where we do curbside pick up. They seem to have caught on what needs to be done. I feel safe ordering from them and they seem to be doing a very good business. On the other hand one of our favorite restaurants has simply closed and has not tried to do any sort of pickup or delivery. I called the owner and he said he just cold not figure out how to do take out. Businesses like that may go under. Other businesses who figure it our may flourish.

It is highly unlikely they are even covering their fixed and overhead costs operating like that. They are likely to go under too if this lasts. Even full restaurants are a low margin business.

[audreyh1]

If what lasts? The pandemic?

States are going ahead and opening up even though we still have plenty of states with increasing infections.

So I think we can quit arguing about whether or not businesses should open up since all states are moving in that direction already.

[Turbo29]

A 'very, very messy' process: How pandemics end

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? And how?
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.
“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins.


In other words, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/...d-15260064.php

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbo29 A 'very, very messy' process: How pandemics end When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? And how? According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes. “When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins. In other words, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/...d-15260064.php

That is silly. The virus does not care if you are afraid or not.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbo29 A 'very, very messy' process: How pandemics end When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? And how? According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes. “When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins. In other words, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/...d-15260064.php

I agree that overall it’s going to be a messy process. But sorry, I thought that was a dumb article. Dismissing what happened so far as panic and an epidemic of fear because drastic steps were taken to avoid what happened in Italy and not overwhelm our healthcare resources, is pretty useless. It’s also sort of concluding that it’s about over because states are opening back up because people are fed up but was pretty wishy washy on that point. IMO as long as the virus is spreading people are going to be dealing with upheaval and having to live differently. They may think they deserve to get back to their old life, but that’s going to take quite a bit longer.