Unemployment Report Thurs 3-26

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Lcountz

Recycles dryer sheets
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How do folks feel about this upcoming Thursday when the Unemployment figures will be released?

We who live and breathe finances know the number will be huge...but will the general joe public, when he hears it, panic even more?

I am thinking he will.

Does anyone else think it will cause a large negative shock to the markets?

I know in my brain I should just hold on tight, but I am worried more than ever. I am too old and wrinkly to go back to work!!!

I wish ALL the news outlets would start discussing the probability of a very large number now so that by Thursday, it will be more in the conciousness of people and they expect it....I think it would blunt the effect.....

MOST people I know do not follow finances day to day like I do. A lot in fact don't seem to even know what's going on . Amazing.

I did convert from Trad to Roth, still have a little to throw in to top of 12% bracket, may go to 22% cause prices will below. Won't be fun to pay extra tax now,but I think this is once in a lifetime opportunity.

PS: I vacillate on my ideas in the time it takes for me to walk from one end of my house to the other!!!!
 
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I am far from having any insight into these things but ... Joe Public doesn't affect the stock market. He's probably one of the newly unemployed. The people who affect the stock market already know what's coming hence the past three weeks results. A totally -expected- "new number" won't add much value to their panic.


Joe average might be needing to raid his IRA/401k incoming weeks/months but I'm not sure that selling will even be detectable.
 
From the income side, if one maximizes unemployment insurance, the maximum income amount won't even cover 50% of any income in most cases.
So what happens next?
 
The unemployment number on Thursday is expected to be 2 million plus or minus 500K and to be a record both in terms of percentage of the workface in a single week and the number of recently unemployed.

We will see what the next week's effect will be, but most people do not have the financing to be laid off and 401K are going to be raided and not added to, so that is not a positive for the market. Much will depend on what the government announces as part of the MMT process that is ongoing.
 
Not sure about other parts of the country but Silicon Valley companies are locking down, perhaps not all but very many are asking a few to work from home while many other are staying home with no pay.
 
Having been through an oil industry crash plus some other unemployment, I have a great deal of empathy for the victims.
 
These weekly initial jobless claims reports are definitely going to be eye-popping for a while.

I know we have SOME hiring going on. Will be interesting to see how the entire employment picture looks on first Friday in April.
 
The Imperial College of London gave their report on COVID-19 to GB and US Governments. It predicts an 18 month long lock down.
 
VFK57 said:
The Imperial College of London gave their report on COVID-19 to GB and US Governments. It predicts an 18 month long lock down.
Click to expand...

The report does not predict an 18 month lockdown.
 
MichaelB said:
The report does not predict an 18 month lockdown.
Click to expand...
Agree. I found this quote in https://www.fastcompany.com/9047927...nough-but-there-are-reasons-it-might-be-wrong
At least one group of scientists has suggested that a relatively short lockdown, combined with carefully finding and testing people who have been exposed to the virus, could be effective without needing to repeat extreme measures for as long as 18 months. Others have noted that the report doesn’t take into account potential advances in treatment or medical capacity.
Click to expand...
VFK57, please give a source for your claim.
 
Page 3, suppression:
In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a vaccine is available3. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial vaccines will have high efficacy.

This is Flu type virus but far more dangerous what similarly with other bugs causing flu comes and go seasonally. Unless there is reliable and mass produced vaccine / medication, I assume we will repeat lock downs. It is my opinion of course, you may think differently.
 
It won't take 12 to 18 for a vaccine. They are fast tracking this. I predict we have a vaccine by November.
 
Fermion said:
It won't take 12 to 18 for a vaccine. They are fast tracking this. I predict we have a vaccine by November.
Click to expand...
We all hope so but I do trust one of most reputable colleges in the world.
 
Same as most of us I had seen huge drop in value of our equities (everything is deeply in red). However what is better as of now for AA: go all fixed / cash and eat hugest ever losses or rather stay put and wait? To go all cash / fixed income may destroy the retirement fund too because on one hand economy rapidly slows down and our Government is acting by moving to negative rates and resumes QEs what may trigger high inflation eventually. On the other stocks may dive deeper. What do you think?
 
VFK57 said:
The Imperial College of London gave their report on COVID-19 to GB and US Governments. It predicts an 18 month long lock down.
Click to expand...

VFK57 said:
Page 3, suppression:
In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a vaccine is available3. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial vaccines will have high efficacy.

This is Flu type virus but far more dangerous what similarly with other bugs causing flu comes and go seasonally. Unless there is reliable and mass produced vaccine / medication, I assume we will repeat lock downs. It is my opinion of course, you may think differently.
Click to expand...

Suppression is NOT lock down. The report doesn't say 18 months of lockdown - you are assuming that as you finally state. Your initial post sought to conflate the widely accepted report with your personal opinion and it took a lot of prodding for you to finally admit that.

The report says suppression activities may be needed for the 18 month duration - assuming a vaccine takes that long. Suppression includes social distancing and targeted things like schools and WFH and regional approaches.
 
VFK57 said:
Same as most of us I had seen huge drop in value of our equities (everything is deeply in red). However what is better as of now for AA: go all fixed / cash and eat hugest ever losses or rather stay put and wait? To go all cash / fixed income may destroy the retirement fund too because on one hand economy rapidly slows down and our Government is acting by moving to negative rates and resumes QEs what may trigger high inflation eventually. On the other stocks may dive deeper. What do you think?
Click to expand...
I'm not good at guessing. I'm sticking mainly to my AA, though hedging my bets slightly. I just closed on a townhouse sale last week, and the proceeds would put me back in balance if I put it all in a stock fund. Instead I only invested 1/2, and left 1/2 in cash for now. This puts me pretty close. I have plenty of cash to get by on for a few years so I won't have to sell at a low.
 
Fermion said:
It won't take 12 to 18 for a vaccine. They are fast tracking this. I predict we have a vaccine by November.
Click to expand...
.

You assume a vaccine can be developed. There has never been a vaccine for something like this - look at SARS/MERS. Vaccines must follow protocol length to see if they are effective or not. This is fools gold thinking
 
If it's bad enough, maybe the powers-that-be will wake up and realize economic disaster is not a sustainable way to fight illness.
 
accountingsucks said:
.

You assume a vaccine can be developed. There has never been a vaccine for something like this - look at SARS/MERS. Vaccines must follow protocol length to see if they are effective or not. This is fools gold thinking
Click to expand...

And SARS/MERS are little known at this point.

A little balance could be in order.
 
Lcountz said:
How do folks feel about this upcoming Thursday when the Unemployment figures will be released?

We who live and breathe finances know the number will be huge...but will the general joe public, when he hears it, panic even more?

I am thinking he will.

Does anyone else think it will cause a large negative shock to the markets?
Click to expand...

It certainly will. Not just the number, but the commentary that accompanies the number. In fact, I am, already seeing commentary along the lines of "the loss of jobs will be unlike anything we have ever seen"


So expect continued market shock. The key question is if one has an AA that they are comfortable with through the shock.
 
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