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Old 03-16-2020, 10:08 AM   #21
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... What we are doing now appears to be an over reaction to some. When the peak of the pandemic is past - it may very well seem we did not do enough. ...
Sir John Templeton: "The most expensive four words in investing are 'this time its different.' '"

Please wake me in December when it's time for us to do our annual portfolio review.

For me, watching this market chaos is like going to one of those restaurant/bars where they have tv sets all over the place with no sound. The tvs always show people running around, usually in connection with some kind of ball. Sometimes I don't even recognize the game and for sure I don't recognize the players. The score is of no interest to me either, but the video action keeps drawing my eye to the TV. When we're done eating I leave without any knowledge or memory of what went on. And that's fine with me.
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Old 03-16-2020, 10:14 AM   #22
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Sir John Templeton: "The most expensive four words in investing are 'this time its different.' '"

Please wake me in December when it's time for us to do our annual portfolio review.

For me, watching this market chaos is like going to one of those restaurant/bars where they have tv sets all over the place with no sound. The tvs always show people running around, usually in connection with some kind of ball. Sometimes I don't even recognize the game and for sure I don't recognize the players. The score is of no interest to me either, but the video action keeps drawing my eye to the TV. When we're done eating I leave without any knowledge or memory of what went on. And that's fine with me.


I like your style. [emoji106]
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Old 03-16-2020, 10:20 AM   #23
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Old 03-16-2020, 10:29 AM   #24
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I think many folks will be getting aggressive to regain some of the losses they are incurring right now. By the end of Summer (September), we should see a turn around that will turn into a raging bull market by November....my opinion !
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Old 03-16-2020, 10:32 AM   #25
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I think we are going to pull the trigger on some more ROTH conversions today. Just in case this is a V recovery. Of course, it may still be a V recovery where we are far from the bottom. Oh well.
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Old 03-16-2020, 10:32 AM   #26
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I predict W shaped recovery
The lows set in this crisis will need to be tested before going onto new highs so definitely W shaped recovery over next two years
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Old 03-16-2020, 11:01 AM   #27
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Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. That's some time in July, and that's the peak. If it's a bell curve, and the down side is the same, it's October to be where we are today.

So what is 6 months of shutdown impact on US economy?
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Old 03-16-2020, 11:08 AM   #28
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So if it's October, and you can become infected again, and a vaccine takes 12 to 18 months, well here we go again! Scarry thought!
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Old 03-16-2020, 11:14 AM   #29
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Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. That's some time in July, and that's the peak. If it's a bell curve, and the down side is the same, it's October to be where we are today.

So what is 6 months of shutdown impact on US economy?
I wonder when I see these predictions of 2, 3, 4 months (or 14 weeks) to peak. China peaked in about 4 weeks. The serious infection rate there took off in mid-January and was clearly flattening out by mid-February.

China imposed authoritarian restrictions to do it, but we are fast approaching that. I'm in Maryland and the Governor just shut down all restaurants, bars, and gyms starting at 5:00 p.m. today.

I think we are looking at an Ariel Narrow U.
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Old 03-16-2020, 11:17 AM   #30
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Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. ...
Weather prediction accuracy deteriorates after a couple of weeks into the future and the mathematics of weather is very well understood.

The mathematics of epidemics was somewhat understood when people lived in villages and didn't travel. Now it's a complete crap shoot.

The only sure thing about predictions like this is that most of them will be wrong. Not unlike predicting the market, actually.
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"V" as in "Vhy is this happening?"
Old 03-16-2020, 11:28 AM   #31
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"V" as in "Vhy is this happening?"

All the stories about toilet paper, hand sanitizer, masks, etc., convince me that huge numbers of people are not acting rationally; they are panicking. Why should I expect that the insane market swings do not reflect the same irrational thought patterns?

In which case, once the virus New Infections start to decline (I predict within about 10 days*) there will be a Panic Relief overreaction on the upside. I vote V.

* Please don't ask me why I think this. Explaining would require me walking a tightrope of logic stretched over a boiling pit of emotion.**

** I like that metaphor and I'm gonna use it in a novel someday.
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Old 03-16-2020, 11:32 AM   #32
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I think we are looking at an Ariel Narrow U.


Love this.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:26 PM   #33
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I don’t understand what happens even if we are able to control things in the US. What then? How will the countries that can’t clamp down on this fare? How long do we close our borders to everyone because the infections rage on for months or longer?

Everyone assumes that once we flatten the curve here that all will be well. But if the whole world has it it opens us back up to round 2, or 3.

I really hope I’m wrong and my gut tells me to get out of equities cuz this is going to be bad. But I did that in 2008 and pulled out at the bottom after losing almost 40%. worst mistake ever. Now it’s keeping me from pulling out when I see everything pointing to a prolonged mega-bankruptcy situation for many companies.

Sigh. Everyone do their part and stay safe.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:56 PM   #34
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Based on the unsuccessful St.Patrick's Day we had around here, I think the Leprechaun will not come out of his hole and have a pint to kick off the new Bull Market until September 1, 2020.
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Old 03-17-2020, 09:34 PM   #35
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It would be interesting to speculate about how this would have played out 25 years ago. What would the natural history of this epidemic have been without the internet, and the current state of medical knowledge and political climate.

I'm thinking a broad U for various reasons but obviously no one knows.
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Old 03-18-2020, 05:39 AM   #36
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I don’t understand what happens even if we are able to control things in the US. What then? How will the countries that can’t clamp down on this fare? How long do we close our borders to everyone because the infections rage on for months or longer?

Everyone assumes that once we flatten the curve here that all will be well. But if the whole world has it it opens us back up to round 2, or 3.

I really hope I’m wrong and my gut tells me to get out of equities cuz this is going to be bad. But I did that in 2008 and pulled out at the bottom after losing almost 40%. worst mistake ever. Now it’s keeping me from pulling out when I see everything pointing to a prolonged mega-bankruptcy situation for many companies.

Sigh. Everyone do their part and stay safe.


Don’t sell your stocks! That would be incredibly foolish. And the round 2 and round 3 risk will be gone as soon as ee have a vaccine/cure, which will be sooner than you think.
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Old 03-27-2020, 05:58 PM   #37
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Lost decade.... no rebound for a long time.
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Old 03-28-2020, 03:22 AM   #38
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Trying to figure out how to type a square root sign . I think we’re in for a long low plateau- maybe 10 years or more with high inflation to boot
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Old 03-28-2020, 07:30 AM   #39
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Trying to figure out how to type a square root sign . I think we’re in for a long low plateau- maybe 10 years or more with high inflation to boot
Here you go:
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Old 03-28-2020, 07:39 AM   #40
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On a side note, BreathFree, your user name always gives me pause, especially now that coronavirus is with us. Anyone who gets a severe case of Covid-19 wants to breathe free, not be breath free.
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