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Vanguard: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
03-27-2020, 12:16 PM
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#1
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Vanguard: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Not that anyone really knows yet, but FWIW. I’ll be very surprised if it’s a short recovery, too much damage will be done before anything resembling “normal,” but I’ve been wrong before.
https://investornews.vanguard/expect...X:VGC:POS01:XX
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03-27-2020, 12:24 PM
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#2
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Not much there, but what little that there was aligns with what I'm expecting to happen.
My big concern is the impact of this recession on consumer confidence. Though the other side of that coin is that it may rattle people enough that the savings rate will increase.
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If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-27-2020, 01:06 PM
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#3
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
... it may rattle people enough that the savings rate will increase.
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That would be my guess.
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03-27-2020, 01:16 PM
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#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
That would be my guess.
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That would be my hope, but I doubt it.
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03-27-2020, 01:37 PM
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#5
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An analysis I saw a couple of days ago suggested a V recovery because this is a service-economy-led recession. It argued that it is much faster to put servers, cooks, hair stylists, fitness instructors back to work than it is to start up industrial production like factories. Services are demand driven and the demand for haircuts is likely to snap back much faster than for capital goods.
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03-27-2020, 01:56 PM
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#6
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It's too hard to debate how fast we are going to climb out of the hole, while we are just barely starting to slide into the abyss.
I am more interested in how to stop the descent first. And it looks like only a lockdown can stop the virus spread.
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"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-27-2020, 01:59 PM
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#7
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Average recession is 1.3 years. This should end more quickly than that given its source: lockdown-induced coma. Also, when you have 3 million first time jobless claims, they are all hitting at once. That also suggests it will run its course quickly.
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03-27-2020, 02:35 PM
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#8
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We have to stop the virus first before we can talk about the recovery. I don't see any way to stop the virus at this time other than the theory of "herd immunity". If that is the case, we have to hope that we are the one who survives after the infection, before we see the recovery.
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03-27-2020, 02:38 PM
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#9
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What these so called investment experts don't understand is that like the purge from the last great recession, many will not find jobs again from the current purge. I know many people now in their 60's that were let go from professional positions back in 2009 that still have not found work. Businesses don't snap a figure and hire back people that they let go. During the re-hiring phase, they are much more selective and gradually hire back workers as business starts ramping up. We will see a recovery with all the stimulus from where we are now and headed over the next two months, but after the stimulus wears off, the markets aren't going anywhere until there is either a vaccine or a viable treatment for this virus.
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03-27-2020, 02:41 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingaway
We have to stop the virus first before we can talk about the recovery. I don't see any way to stop the virus at this time other than the theory of "herd immunity". If that is the case, we have to hope that we are the one who survives after the infection, before we see the recovery.
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Yeah much more accurate than mass producing ventilators for a fixed number of healthcare professionals to effectively use them.
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Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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03-27-2020, 02:52 PM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingaway
We have to stop the virus first before we can talk about the recovery. I don't see any way to stop the virus at this time other than the theory of "herd immunity". If that is the case, we have to hope that we are the one who survives after the infection, before we see the recovery.
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To stop the virus, China looks to be successful with their lockdown. They are reopening Wuhan, and restarting factories.
European countries one after another are instituting lockdown.
The rest of the world is also doing it.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-27-2020, 02:57 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
Not much there, but what little that there was aligns with what I'm expecting to happen.
My big concern is the impact of this recession on consumer confidence. Though the other side of that coin is that it may rattle people enough that the savings rate will increase.
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Well the savings rate increased big time for a while after 2008-2009.
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03-27-2020, 02:58 PM
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#13
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Some industries may never recover. Cruise ships come to mind.
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03-27-2020, 03:01 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
It's too hard to debate how fast we are going to climb out of the hole, while we are just barely starting to slide into the abyss.
I am more interested in how to stop the descent first. And it looks like only a lockdown can stop the virus spread.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingaway
We have to stop the virus first before we can talk about the recovery. I don't see any way to stop the virus at this time other than the theory of "herd immunity". If that is the case, we have to hope that we are the one who survives after the infection, before we see the recovery.
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We can start letting people out of their homes and go work or help others when we know they are either uninfected, or have been infected and recovered. Otherwise we keep repeating the situation and making more uninfected sick.
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03-27-2020, 03:01 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ready
Some industries may never recover. Cruise ships come to mind.
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Yea, what will we do with out those floating petri dishes?
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03-27-2020, 03:06 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
To stop the virus, China looks to be successful with their lockdown. They are reopening Wuhan, and restarting factories.
European countries one after another are instituting lockdown.
The rest of the world is also doing it.
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They didn’t just lock down. They also tested very aggressively and did extensive contact tracing and quarantining on people outside of Wuhan and as they started having people get back to work.
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03-27-2020, 03:25 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
To stop the virus, China looks to be successful with their lockdown. They are reopening Wuhan, and restarting factories. ...
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Let's hope that the reopenings don't result in another round of infectious spread.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-27-2020, 03:26 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Well the savings rate increased big time for a while after 2008-2009.
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Yes, I remember that it did... unfortunately it didn't stick.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-27-2020, 03:41 PM
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#19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
To stop the virus, China looks to be successful with their lockdown. They are reopening Wuhan, and restarting factories.
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uh, oh...
Beijing's Film Bureau abruptly ordered theaters to close on Friday without explanation, according to multiple outlets including The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, and Deadline. It suggests concern about a second wave of coronavirus cases. Along with the theaters that had already reopened, Shanghai had previously announced on Thursday that it would reopen 205 of its theaters this weekend.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...e-again-2020-3
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03-27-2020, 03:53 PM
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#20
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Location: Upstate
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
They didn’t just lock down. They also tested very aggressively and did extensive contact tracing and quarantining on people outside of Wuhan and as they started having people get back to work.
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We've now tested more than any other country. As of today, 626K tests have been done in the USA.
source: https://covidtracking.com/data/
15.9% of tests have been positive.
Other countries (as of 3/20): https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
China is reducing their new cases issue by .... not testing?
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