Wave 2 and 3

[LOL!]

People will do what people do. Each family and/or individuals will have to decide for themselves what they do based on all available information including local information.

As long as information is not suppressed, then I think future waves will be more localized. I am talking about information such as "Jimmy got the 'rona and he was in the grocery store, the liquor store, and at the gas station in the past few days." Or "Jenny died this morning and I had just seen her over at Sonic."

So readily available PPE (gloves, masks, disinfectant), testing, and personal habits will make things different than back in March.

Once you know somebody close to you who died, you tend to sober up.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold I'm thinking that we will finally exit the shutdown by July, only to start the shutdown by Sept. I hope this isn't true and we are learning and preparing, not just reacting to the current plight.

I don't think there will be another shutdown. Too close to the election.
Plus, there also could be statements that "most" of the cases are really the flu and not the virus. Doesn't really matter if it is true or not.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by razztazz And along with this, anybody know the current rate of suspected total infection in the U.S.? Lots of references to tons more people have been exposed to it but we don't know how many because we didn't start the game with 330 million test kits.

We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings.

Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings. Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

Coz the numbers will look bad.
But if it was thought through, the infection rate is most likely much more under reported than the death rate.
So if we had the representative testing, it could be stated that the more accurate death rate is much lower than reported and thus perhaps folks could take some comfort in that stat.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

It is really no mystery why it hasn't been done.

[razztazz]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings. Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

If the press is ignorant, it's because their expertise is journalism/getting interviews etc and not "Everything everybody else knows". The same things you & I are ignorant of and in the same way for the same reasons.

I stated in an earlier post somewhere, if experts/sources are being misquoted or misrepresented by ignorant media I never see them fall all over themselves to correct it. Ergo, maybe they're just cool with it. Meaning 1) Screw the public who cares of they know anything. Not likely. Or 2) The media did not get it wrong or at least they got it sufficiently right. It comports with the intentions of the originator. In fact when they've come out to correct statements it hasn't been media shortcomings that motivated it. That's all I'll say about that.

I know all about how much testing is sufficient and what a representative sample is. (Diversified investments would be an example.) Why haven't we done representative sample testing nationwide all this time...? I don't know. The usual drivers of things: Politics & Money? And they're practically the same thing. I doubt the street level medical operators/practitioners don't care to know these numbers. It's hard to believe they could have been testing all this time but said: Naaaw!" Others perhaps have an incentive to obscure.

[MrLoco]

The reason most people went along with the stay at home orders and the closing of businesses is that most people figured ," Ok...we do this for a few weeks and then we get back to normal." Well, it has been about 6 weeks and people have had enough.

Do you really think that the small business owner ,maybe a restaurant, who financially survived these last 6 weeks cuz he/she had some money put away is really going to put up with a governor/mayor saying in October "Oops....cases of Covid 19 are spiking. We need to shut down again! Rigid stay at home orders again. People laid off again (after getting back to work if they were lucky enough)."

If you think some of the protests are "intense" now.....you haven't seen anything. There will be full out riots in the streets with citizens exchanging gunfire with the police. Many more dead from the violence than from Covid 19.
Another shutdown is just NOT financially sustainable.
The money printed , the trillions, will be worthless.
Are the states supposed to continue another wave of unemployment benefits? Where will the money come from?
Our children/grandchildren will be saddled with extraordinary debt.
What is the incentive for the young people to work.....if tax rates will approach 80%?

YEs. People will die. Probably mostly the "vulnerable." MAybe 5% of the population. But the 5% cannot dictate to the other 95% how to live and destroy their financial lives and their future.

If you are one of the vulnerable....then stay at home, do not go out, have your groceries and medication delivered and limit human contact for the next 12 months or whenever a vaccine is available. This is reasonable and should prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

[Rustic23]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrLoco The reason most people went along with the stay at home orders and the closing of businesses is that most people figured ," Ok...we do this for a few weeks and then we get back to normal." Well, it has been about 6 weeks and people have had enough. Do you really think that the small business owner ,maybe a restaurant, who financially survived these last 6 weeks cuz he/she had some money put away is really going to put up with a governor/mayor saying in October "Oops....cases of Covid 19 are spiking. We need to shut down again! Rigid stay at home orders again. People laid off again (after getting back to work if they were lucky enough)." If you think some of the protests are "intense" now.....you haven't seen anything. There will be full out riots in the streets with citizens exchanging gunfire with the police. Many more dead from the violence than from Covid 19. Another shutdown is just NOT financially sustainable. The money printed , the trillions, will be worthless. Are the states supposed to continue another wave of unemployment benefits? Where will the money come from? Our children/grandchildren will be saddled with extraordinary debt. What is the incentive for the young people to work.....if tax rates will approach 80%? YEs. People will die. Probably mostly the "vulnerable." MAybe 5% of the population. But the 5% cannot dictate to the other 95% how to live and destroy their financial lives and their future. If you are one of the vulnerable....then stay at home, do not go out, have your groceries and medication delivered and limit human contact for the next 12 months or whenever a vaccine is available. This is reasonable and should prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

I fall in the vulnerable population. I have no problem staying home. However, I
I think the non-vulnerable have a responsibility to help protect the vulnerable. I’m not talking about staying home or not going to work or play. I’m talking about precautions around where the vulnerable realistically have to go, i.e. doctors office, grocery stores, etc. I’m talking about doing common sense things like washing hands and yes social distancing. I’ll stay out of bars, restaurants, clubs, movie theaters. I ask you to be equally considerate and wear appropriate PPE when the situation dictates.

[gwraigty]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrLoco The reason most people went along with the stay at home orders and the closing of businesses is that most people figured ," Ok...we do this for a few weeks and then we get back to normal." Well, it has been about 6 weeks and people have had enough. Do you really think that the small business owner ,maybe a restaurant, who financially survived these last 6 weeks cuz he/she had some money put away is really going to put up with a governor/mayor saying in October "Oops....cases of Covid 19 are spiking. We need to shut down again! Rigid stay at home orders again. People laid off again (after getting back to work if they were lucky enough)." If you think some of the protests are "intense" now.....you haven't seen anything. There will be full out riots in the streets with citizens exchanging gunfire with the police. Many more dead from the violence than from Covid 19. Another shutdown is just NOT financially sustainable. The money printed , the trillions, will be worthless. Are the states supposed to continue another wave of unemployment benefits? Where will the money come from? Our children/grandchildren will be saddled with extraordinary debt. What is the incentive for the young people to work.....if tax rates will approach 80%? YEs. People will die. Probably mostly the "vulnerable." MAybe 5% of the population. But the 5% cannot dictate to the other 95% how to live and destroy their financial lives and their future. If you are one of the vulnerable....then stay at home, do not go out, have your groceries and medication delivered and limit human contact for the next 12 months or whenever a vaccine is available. This is reasonable and should prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Well said. In Ohio it started with March 23rd through April 5th. Then it was April 6th through April 30th. Now it's May 1st through May 28th. (They tried to keep that last order secret from the public until the last minute, signing it at 11:30 PM, according to some irate state legislators.) That's 7 weeks as of tomorrow and it'll be 10 weeks by the end, if it holds up. Even though some businesses are being allowed to reopen over the next week or so, some elements of the order haven't changed. Socializing with people who don't live with you is still prohibited, as just one example, though some haven't obeyed that part of the order from Day 1. (I'm passing no judgment. Our household has obeyed it.)

I've read that some municipalities have nowhere else they can cut and it could get down to furloughing police, fire, and other safety services. That's dire. So maybe some of the police will be on the side of the rioters? Not that I condone rioting, but you get my drift. Our city is cutting where it can, but it runs pretty close to the bone during strong economic times. I wouldn't like to know that police have been furloughed with all the drug problems and associated crime in certain parts of town.

[TheHobbit]

I started out a believer in many of these precautions, but as data rolls in around Sweden, Florida and indeed the week over week new case/death stats, it's getting harder and harder for me to support these lock downs.

The data looks pretty weak to my eyes. Nearly all of the dire predictions people have been heaping on states and countries who took less drastic precautions have not come true, and the same people are waving their hands trying to come up with explanations.

And the lack of standardized random testing to guide policy decisions is just breathtaking .... it's inexcusable. This should have been in place in week 2 to assess the true situation we were are in, then track progress based, instead it's still nowhere to be found.

[mpeirce]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 IMO quite a few areas are in for a rude awakening! Especially rural areas that have been mostly spared until now

I don't understand.

Are these rural areas all of a sudden starting to ride crowded subways? Attending conventions? Traveling on cruise ships?

The only rural place I'm aware of being hotspots are the lucky hosts of large prisons.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce I don't understand. Are these rural areas all of a sudden starting to ride crowded subways? Attending conventions? Traveling on cruise ships? The only rural place I'm aware of being hotspots are the lucky hosts of large prisons.

No, just the normal going to church and/or visits from relatives who work in factories. Or area gas stations with truckers or other travellers passing through.

We do have a state prison in our rural area employing many.

[TheHobbit]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 No, just the normal going to church and/or visits from relatives who work in factories. Or area gas stations with truckers or other travellers passing through. We do have a state prison in our rural area employing many.

I live an work in a heavily populated area, however I think it's important for my fellow citizens to empathize with those in rural areas. One size will most likely *not* fit all in this situation, the data for this is already very clear.

[eytonxav]

Quote:

Originally Posted by razztazz There is no science that makes it true. There is plenty that makes it plausible, though. This is where the great hang-up is. The People and the Establishment want easy, black/white answers. Hence "The Experts." But they know they don't know ergo the constant hedging. That's actually good but it doesn't magically solve the problem. In new situations that takes time. "The data" is not "in." It gets back to which way do you want to go with it and which consequences can you live with or convince yourself to ignore? How may punches can you take? Sonny Liston punches, or Floyd Patterson punches? And just what is the worst case or the least-bad-bad-outcome, anyway? Nobody can know. They can just conjecture. The "leadership" types will have to make these decisions. In the end everyone will want to claim credit. See? We told you so."

Unfortunately even the experts do not seem to just come out and say I don't know, and end up falling into the speculation game. Fauci is good at doing this.

[meierlde]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings. Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

If you look at the numbers it very much depends on the state involved, here in NM it turns out that about 3.6 percent of the population has been tested. Further the Governor worked hard to get the testing. Further rather than many states, the hospitals generally use commercial labs for their lab work. When I was in a hospital here, I saw the commercial lab had an office there. So you don't have as many fights as where the major hospital chains have their own labs over who will do what. (Of course a relativly small population does help)

[meierlde]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustic23 I fall in the vulnerable population. I have no problem staying home. However, I I think the non-vulnerable have a responsibility to help protect the vulnerable. I’m not talking about staying home or not going to work or play. I’m talking about precautions around where the vulnerable realistically have to go, i.e. doctors office, grocery stores, etc. I’m talking about doing common sense things like washing hands and yes social distancing. I’ll stay out of bars, restaurants, clubs, movie theaters. I ask you to be equally considerate and wear appropriate PPE when the situation dictates.

In tx the HEB chain has set up a special delivery service for the vulnerable population so you don't have to go out to get groceries. In larger towns there is also grocery delivery and in Albuquerque the panic over getting delivery times has subsided (except perhaps for whole foods) Physician will continue to work over the phone,to minimize the number of patients who come in. Also of course you have restaurant delivery services as well.

It does appear that it may be a while until movie theaters reopen because it is not clear that they can make money with folks spaced 6 feet apart, since seats are perhaps 22 inches wide meaning you need seats between folks, and row spacing is 2ft 6 inches typically, you offset seating i.e. no one is in the seat directly behind or in front of you. If you do the math this does not meed the 2 m or 6.6 foot rule You would only have about 37 inches to the person in front or behind and 44 inches to the person next to you.If this is what is done masks will absolutely be required.

[meierlde]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 No, just the normal going to church and/or visits from relatives who work in factories. Or area gas stations with truckers or other travellers passing through. We do have a state prison in our rural area employing many.

Assume social distancing in churches keeping several feet apart from other families. Second in Gas stations how close do you get to others? A car is longer than 6 feet, and unless if we adopt a start the pump and move to the side of the car furthest away you can get 6 ft. (The big benefit here is the pump based readers which don' t require you to go into the store. )

[Teacher Terry]

I don’t think we will see more shutdowns. Tomorrow is the beginning of our 8th week and even with being vulnerable it’s getting old. We haven’t seen our friends but a couple of days ago got together outside with another couple all 6ft apart. No one is working so probably okay. We also see my oldest son and his wife who have everything delivered. Staying home for a year isn’t living.

[Ronstar]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold I'm thinking that we will finally exit the shutdown by July, only to start the shutdown by Sept. I hope this isn't true and we are learning and preparing, not just reacting to the current plight.

I think we have seen our last shutdown. The predicted medical facility overloading never happened yet, so I think that the powers that be are willing to let nature take its course.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by meierlde Assume social distancing in churches keeping several feet apart from other families. Second in Gas stations how close do you get to others? A car is longer than 6 feet, and unless if we adopt a start the pump and move to the side of the car furthest away you can get 6 ft. (The big benefit here is the pump based readers which don' t require you to go into the store. )

A lot of rural folks don't get the social distancing thing and are increasingly unwilling to comply because their area hasn't been affected much so far. People traveling stop at gas stations to use the restroom. As things open back up and people go out more, there are far more opportunities for spread. Not so sure how well social distancing works in church as singing can probably spread virus in the air more than the typical distancing.