Why do we need a new normal?

[RobbieB]

Cruise ships will go broke. Airlines will go broke. Hotels will go broke. Restaurants are going broke every day.

That's the new normal, all broke.

 

[Just_Steve]

Cruise ships will go broke. Airlines will go broke. Hotels will go broke. Restaurants are going broke every day.

That's the new normal, all broke.

Sounds like a business opportunity to me, wish I was younger.

 

[RobbieB]

Oh yeah. Stuff is going to be sold for pennies on the dollar.

 

[dixonge]

I just had a bit of an epiphany re: restaurants. Now for staff, from the kitchen to the greeter, they are going to have to mask up until vaccination/herd immunity is here for good. Maybe disposable gloves? Not sure about that one. Diners will have to remove masks to eat and drink, of course. But as far as tables/spacing goes, here is my epiphany.....

Booths. Booths everywhere. A bit higher than head height. Can space closer together than tables, while dining no one is facing and breathing at any other diners. Get rid of 90% of the tables.

Also, I hope this turns out to be workable because my SIL runs a company that makes restaurant booths.

 

[Turbo29]

One point to remember is that Covid19 only kills a small percentage of those that catch it. A more deadly virus like Hantavirus kills 2/3rds of those that catch it. If we continue as before and a really deadly, fast spreading virus occurs, we'd be in much, much worse shape.

Deadly viruses don't usually kill fast because they need a living host to spread them.

 

[Just_Steve]

The future restaurant will look like the smoking rooms that used to be inside some restaurants. What were they? negative pressure? a table and chairs all segregated in little rooms. Remember, you heard it here first.

 

[Dwhit]

Based on human nature and our short collective memory, I think a Covid vaccine will put an end to the New Normal in pretty short order, as it relates to medical issues.

I am not sure about how long it will take to recover from the effects of shutting down the economy. I hope we can recover quickly, but who knows how it will shake out.

 

[fh2000]

The future restaurant will look like the smoking rooms that used to be inside some restaurants. What were they? negative pressure? a table and chairs all segregated in little rooms. Remember, you heard it here first.

Well, some Asian countries set up plastic transparent dividers between eaters in college cafeteria and army mass hall. They can't spit on each other. Maybe we will see those here.

 

[fh2000]

Another new normal. Thermoscan machines in front of every entrance for train, airport, bus station, subway, supermarket, restaurant, etc. Anyone with a temperature > 99F is turned away. This is prevalent in Asia, and was also touched upon by Governor Newsom 2 days ago.

 

[travelover]

Deadly viruses don't usually kill fast because they need a living host to spread them.

I feel so much safer now.

 

[clobber]

I hope we do completely do away with the handshaking thing. I vote for the Thai "Y" gesture.

 

[DayDreaming]

I always thought that buffet-style restaurants and salad bars were dangerous before. After this, not sure if I'll ever visit one again.

 

[Nemo2]

I hope we do completely do away with the handshaking thing. I vote for the Thai "Y" gesture.

Kinda like Namaste? I'll second that.

 

[P.S.]

1) People use Hydroxychloroquine at home as prescribed all the time just like any other medication.

False. Patients who chronically take it at home are carefully started on the med to be sure that they do not have cardiac complications, and then monitored for long term effects. This is not a benign drug.

Arrhythmias and cardiac dysfunction has by now been very well described in COVID19. It is no longer anecdotal. Combined with the arrhythmic effects of hydroxychloroquine (both known QT prolongation and torsade de pointe), the outcomes can be disastrous. THIS is a very fast moving situation and we are still very early in the disease. The case reports of people being prescribed this as outpatients and having the above outcomes will take time.

 

[OldShooter]

It's not a question of "need." While most of the more bizarre ideas and scenarios will not materialize, both the citizens and the governments will behave differently in the future. The changes will not be as radical as they maybe should be, but there will be changes. For one thing, both the people and the governments will start paying more attention to the public health folks. They knew this was coming years ago but could not get anyone's attention/ get anyone to seriously prepare.

... and we will all have plenty of toilet paper cached at home.

 

[P.S.]

IMO
Yes, we need a new normal. Why? Because SARS CoV2 is not going away. And when it finally does affect every last remaining human, there will be SARS 3... then SARS 4...

SARS and MERS were like the practice outbreaks. It could have been our (global) opportunity to get public health (i.e. public will ) prepared. Ramp up Public Health offices. Coordinate research efforts (like SEPI). Remove the profit and need for bottom line from science research. [soapbox] Hopefully COVID19 teaches us what is really important to us as humans and as a species.

Lasting, durable, sterilizing immunity to coronaviruses would be the exception, i.e. not demonstrated yet. Could very well be that no vaccine will be soon developed that protects humans from COVID19. Or maybe from bad disease. Measles vaccine took 5y to develop. Polio almost 50. Neither measles or polio are coronaviruses.
Then the other hope is treatment. Maybe a mix of anti-virals, immunosuppressants, and good hospital care. SARS-CoV2 is a “clever” virus and has particular features that make it tricky to treat from a virologic perspective. My guess is a successful regimen is going to take very particular timing for the different drugs for the optimal effect, and will depend on patients doing the right thing and presenting at the right time.
Meanwhile you have Americans jumping to get back together! And share things like restaurant door handles, gym equipment, and bannisters. Just cause some elected official says go back and mingle, doesn’t mean the virus goes into hiding.

So what does that mean as a species? This could be Darwinian theory played out in real time. Survival of the fittest. The smartest. The luckiest who was the smartest who got the richest and could best protect self and family. The one who stayed lean and mean, who could read the events and stocked up enough in advance, not just TP, but enough protein, ingredients for healthy meals, educational adv. for their offspring.

The biggest problem with SARS-CoV2 is not that it kills people, but that it kills obese people AND people who have health problems. And American citizens are exactly that. Our case report series will be different and have different stats than those from China, Italia, etc because of our lifestyle.

Maybe the new normal should be that we spend 2T on public heath and preventative health. What if we made it a goal to get rid of diabetes and obesity? REALLY push public health, so that people not just have easy cheap access to important meds, but all the other things so that they didn’t have to take meds. Fitness built into our daily lives. Heavily tax those things, like fast foods and smoking etc , that ultimately lead to the poor health that leads us to have to shut down our economy to protect the unhealthy. To make our citizens and our public health as robust as possible. So that when a new novel virus came to attack our species, we will fare better, and not have to debate bailing out cruise lines. [end soapbox]

 

[Spock]

Some changes will be intentional.
But a lot of behavioral changes are already trained in.

Who is going to rely on JIT shopping any more and let themselves get down to the last roll of TP before buying more?


The term PTSD gets over used, but there are a lot of people who have been running on very high stress levels for long periods of time. That is going to change how they react in the future.

I remember right after 9/11 and the airlines were just starting their first flights. An airliner was climbing up out of the airport and heading in the general direction of our house... we're 20 miles from the airport but the aircraft was a little bigger and lower than pre-9/11 traffic patterns near us. I found myself unconsciously staring at it with 9/11 events on my mind. And flights resumed 2ish(?) days after 9/11... we're starting our 2nd month of this with a lot of peoples personal stress levels directly impacted.
"Thats going to leave a mark"

 

[brewer12345]

I have never trusted JIT supplies of things I care about. Foolish for the consumer if you have the space and money to lay in a supply.

 

[Spock]

I hope we do completely do away with the handshaking thing. I vote for the Thai "Y" gesture.

I'd go with the Mr. Spock gesture...

 

[jollystomper]

For restaurants, we may also see the more rapid adoption of ordering via a device on the table. You only interact with a server when food is delivered to you - and eventually that could be done by a wheeled robot. Water and soft drinks may be only obtained from fountain, or bottled. This might be the only way fast food/fast casual restaurants can stay in business. It also means fewer serving jobs.

 

[MRG]

Some changes will be intentional.
But a lot of behavioral changes are already trained in.

Who is going to rely on JIT shopping any more and let themselves get down to the last roll of TP before buying more?


The term PTSD gets over used, but there are a lot of people who have been running on very high stress levels for long periods of time. That is going to change how they react in the future.

I remember right after 9/11 and the airlines were just starting their first flights. An airliner was climbing up out of the airport and heading in the general direction of our house... we're 20 miles from the airport but the aircraft was a little bigger and lower than pre-9/11 traffic patterns near us. I found myself unconsciously staring at it with 9/11 events on my mind. And flights resumed 2ish(?) days after 9/11... we're starting our 2nd month of this with a lot of peoples personal stress levels directly impacted.
"Thats going to leave a mark"

I remember the first airplane after 911. I was downtown KCMO when a plane banked over our building to land at the downtown airport. I was in a staff meeting with our VP and all the managers, I almost hit the floor taking cover.

Many people are going to be impacted in ways they don't understand.

 

[Rianne]

I just heard an interview with a Pastor who is allowing his congregation to congregate. It's a small church (50 members). He's following CDC guidelines, everyone wears a mask, no handshaking, 6 ft. distancing and hand sanitizer everywhere. If his parishioners understand the risk and are willing to congregate, go for it.



It's tiring to hear the argument: the Constitution allows peaceful assembly. OK, you want to assemble, you know the risks, go for it. The consequences are known, stated over and over. I say this only for groups who choose to gather, know the consequences and follow the guidelines. Does not pertain to the workplace. That's an entirely different argument.

 

[Midpack]

A simple search https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-1918-flu-pandemic-revolutionized-public-health-180965025/ How the 1918 Flu Pandemic Revolutionized Public Health

We haven’t had another event start after 1918 with anywhere near as many fatalities as the Spanish Flu except HIV/AIDS, so obviously there have been changes.

Covid-19 is already the worst since the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic.

“The 1918 Spanish Flu claimed between 50 and 100 million lives, according to current estimates, or between 2.5 and five percent of the global population.

 

[foxfirev5]

The new normal may involve much more than the above situations. The whole workplace economics may be affected. DS runs a shift at a food processing plant. Earlier this week they had to ask for a small number of volunteers for layoff. Virtually everyone volunteered. There is not enough premium over the new unemployment compensation to continue working. Now all he has is a dissatisfied group of workers left. At 3% unemployment we had more people working than actually wanted to work. Now it's worse.

Expand that to the entire distribution system crying for workers. More money won't make it work. There's a pretty big group out there that know when they have enough coming in. Working just doesn't pay under hazardous conditions. Also,it looks like the $15+ minimum wage issue has been settled.

However, hopefully the essential retail workers will see some of this. They must work under hazardous conditions for even lower wages. They'll never get laid off so they are stuck.

I know life's not fair but IMHO this is a mess.

 

[aiken]

A simple search https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-1918-flu-pandemic-revolutionized-public-health-180965025/ How the 1918 Flu Pandemic Revolutionized Public Health

We haven’t had another event start after 1918 with anywhere near as many fatalities as the Spanish Flu except HIV/AIDS, so obviously there have been changes.

Covid-19 is already the worst since the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic.

“The 1918 Spanish Flu claimed between 50 and 100 million lives, according to current estimates, or between 2.5 and five percent of the global population.

The Spanish Flu was extraordinarily deadly because most people got associated bacterial infections and antibiotics hadn't been invented yet.