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Old 08-13-2020, 12:39 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
People tend to have a today bias. Whatever is happening today will go on and on and on tomorrow.

Remember the time of Peak Oil. After that oil prices would go up and up as less oil was available. $100 a barrel would seem cheap. Didn't happen. I remember in the early '70s when social unrest plagued many cities. The collapse of society was coming up. Get your cabin in the woods, food supply, gold coins, guns and amo and try to survive it. Didn't happen. The Soviet Union fell, no more foreign enemies to threaten us, no more need for a powerful Army. The peace dividend would finance al sorts of improvements to the human condition. Didn't happen.

EVALUATE AND ADJUST. People have been doing that for centuries and it won't stop now.
Good Post Chuckanut!!!
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:04 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
People tend to have a today bias. Whatever is happening today will go on and on and on tomorrow.

Remember the time of Peak Oil. After that oil prices would go up and up as less oil was available. $100 a barrel would seem cheap. Didn't happen. I remember in the early '70s when social unrest plagued many cities. The collapse of society was coming up. Get your cabin in the woods, food supply, gold coins, guns and amo and try to survive it. Didn't happen. The Soviet Union fell, no more foreign enemies to threaten us, no more need for a powerful Army. The peace dividend would finance al sorts of improvements to the human condition. Didn't happen.

EVALUATE AND ADJUST. People have been doing that for centuries and it won't stop now.
Along those lines... In the early 80s with mortgage rates in the teens, I remember reading an article that said we'll NEVER see rates below 10% again...
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Old 08-13-2020, 11:09 PM   #23
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After the Spanish flu, we had the roaring 20s, so I guess if we are going by historical patterns we could be facing a heck of a stock market climb.
You are forgetting it was also the end of WWI.

We forgot to have a world war before covid-19
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Old 08-14-2020, 06:03 AM   #24
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You are forgetting it was also the end of WWI.

We forgot to have a world war before covid-19
Yep, never underestimate the impact of a guns/butter driven economy where at the end of major world wars the US helped rebuild/resupply many other countries.
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Old 08-14-2020, 06:54 AM   #25
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My 2 cents.

- Higher unemployment from gig economy, travel and leisure industries.
- Commensurate higher poverty and crime
- Rental evictions and mortgage defaults rise
- Bad bets on real estate finally come home to roost for landlords.
- Banks suffer awhile while bankruptcies roll through the system.
- Wealth gap widens
- Health consequences for the poor without access to medical care.
- Universal Basic Income debate gets real
- Lacking spine to increase revenue or cut size of government outlays, congress continues to authorize Treasury to print more money.
- Results in US Dollar slow devaluation and increased inflation at home when the current accounts deficit becomes unsustainable or when the world stops buying US Treasuries. (Unlikely in the near term)
- No good alternative to US Dollar as a world reserve currency so inertia rules the years ahead.
- Increasing e-commerce and other FAANG companies and wannabies (well, duh)
- Distance learning option is here to stay.
- Ditto work from home option.
- Commercial real estate buyers market from more work at home results in contraction in construction industry.
- Governments crank up infrastructure construction employment programs.
- More focus on green programs and climate change mitigation projects that provide jobs. Utilities and industries with a green focus prosper.
- Higher airline and restaurant operating costs due to smaller operating scale
- Less overall driving with distance learning and work from home.
- Slowdown in the rate of increase for global carbon emissions.
- Prolonged period of low oil prices
- Petro states are unstainable in the long run until their economy revamped or revolution. Some Petro states will export instability to distract population.
- People will finally appreciate creating a strong Public Health service but bickering and incompetence within CDC and WHO means that it stays at the state and local levels.
- Some manufacturing returns closer to North America and is automated as nationalism and autarky rises.
- Global trade slows, hindering developing world pulling themselves out of poverty.
- Chinese economy slows but the communists retain power while the Indian economy will take off if their politicians get serious about reform.
- International tensions rise as politicians in economically challenged countries distract populace from real problems. Probability of war increases. - Terrorism rises.
- A successful covid-19 vaccine if novel, will herald a new era of 'designer' vaccines as revolutionary to medicine as antibiotics.

You can probably guess - I worry about all this crap.

atom
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Old 08-14-2020, 07:45 AM   #26
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You forgot Murder Hornets!
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:15 AM   #27
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You forgot Murder Hornets!
OK (edit to add)
- Murder hornets
- African Locust swarms
- Earthquakes
- Famine
- Cats and Dogs living together
- Congress finally working for a change

and my neighbors favorite: zombie werewolves becoming grocery baggers
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:21 AM   #28
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and my neighbors favorite: zombie werewolves becoming grocery baggers

Actually, there’s this store...
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Old 08-14-2020, 09:41 AM   #29
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Waiters will be given paid sick time when they're ill instead of working wearing makeup and taking drugs that mask the symptoms.

But I'd bet on the zombie werewolf happening first.
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Old 08-14-2020, 01:48 PM   #30
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If this were January 2020 my prediction would be way off the mark. Economies are too vast and unpredictable.

But I can control my economic responses. So going forward I think stocks are the place to be and one should reduce bond exposure. But my taste is for increasing stocks (to replace bonds) with a mechanical timing strategy. Probably the majority of people here will roll their eyes over this. I gave some details of this here:
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...io-104969.html

Bonds have had a good run and I've participated to a limited extent. I predict that a few years from now more people will be souring on bonds.
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